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Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future
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Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future

  #51 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
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bgtrader View Post
Hey,
From a different angle, Jason Goepfert over at sentimenTrader - Independent Sentiment Research for the Stock and Bond Markets,

I was a subscriber for 1 year. Jason is a great guy, very nice and founds really interesting facts and statistics. The problem is they have no predictive value. I've done extensive tests on his models, STEM, etc. and I found no predictive value. In fact the only time I found predictive value was when I accidently didn't account for the timestamp differences and I was looking at his models 30 minutes into the future. Then they had precitive value. So that tells me that price is involved in the models some how and they turn once price has confirmed. That means they lag and are not useful. I even wrote to him and told him my findings and asked him if he could provide me with an example of one of his data that had predictive value. He was not able to do so.

I spent hundreds of hours studying this stuff, downloading his excel files, importing into Ninjatrader, and backtesting every idea imagineable. I wanted to believe so bad that his information had predictive value.

I'm not knocking him or his service, if you want breadth data & statistics he is the best. I'm knocking breadth data & statistics because they do not have predictive value! If you think his site will tell you when the market will turn you will be disappointed.

Once I stopped using his service and just based all my trading decisions on price & volume, I started a 4 month winning streak.

Price & Volume tell you everything you need.

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  #52 (permalink)
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fairfield, ct
 
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thanks for adding an experienced comment

hi cunparis,
Glad that someone with experience in Sentimentrader chimed in. I tried Jason's free trial for 2 weeks and had no where the depth of experimentation that you did. Price and volume indeed One trading mentor of mine has a very simple 2 chart setup where he's found that the $TICK does have some predictive value if watched on very fast chart. His setup is 3 tick renko bars with wicks for price excursion, cumulative bid/ask delta of volume underneath, and 30 second candlestick chart of the NYSE $TICK with adaptive moving average. As I'm sure many of us have seen, often the burst trends in the TICK precede moves in the ES.

Cunparis, you ever play around with Neural/Genetic forecasts, any comments? Also, real quick, my hunch was that Jason's models could be used to anticipate over-extendedness. So, do you think there's any predictive value in noticing when STEM is close to oversold/overly pessimistic but hasn't turned, thereby saying to one's price/volume research, "Okay, now we're looking for signs of bottom, accumulation, short covering, etc...expecting turn to upside" vice versa for top?

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  #53 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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bgtrader View Post
hi cunparis,
Glad that someone with experience in Sentimentrader chimed in. I tried Jason's free trial for 2 weeks and had no where the depth of experimentation that you did. Price and volume indeed One trading mentor of mine has a very simple 2 chart setup where he's found that the $TICK does have some predictive value if watched on very fast chart. His setup is 3 tick renko bars with wicks for price excursion, cumulative bid/ask delta of volume underneath, and 30 second candlestick chart of the NYSE $TICK with adaptive moving average. As I'm sure many of us have seen, often the burst trends in the TICK precede moves in the ES.

I use $TICK on a 1min chart and I've been using a variation of bid/ask delta (it's labeled better momentum and/or my momentum in charts, look in the cycles thread). I'm currently experimenting with cumulative version. So I'm probably not far from the setup of your friend. I also simplified and went from 3 timeframes to 2. I want it as simple as possible. You'll find some recent trades in my cycles thread in the VIP forum.


Quoting 
Cunparis, you ever play around with Neural/Genetic forecasts, any comments? Also, real quick, my hunch was that Jason's models could be used to anticipate over-extendedness. So, do you think there's any predictive value in noticing when STEM is close to oversold/overly pessimistic but hasn't turned, thereby saying to one's price/volume research, "Okay, now we're looking for signs of bottom, accumulation, short covering, etc...expecting turn to upside" vice versa for top?

I don't really care about models. They can get pegged at oversold for a long time. I prefer to study the volume that will determine when markets turn. HVC & order flow.

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  #54 (permalink)
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Any idea if the MarketMap service is still available? I went to the site and it has chart examples from 2006 only. I tried to email them to enquire about their 7 day trial and their email bounced.

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  #55 (permalink)
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MAP

Hi Hyperion,
Um, I'd forget about themarketmap.com site. If you want to play with the MAP technology, go straight to Ensign Software for charting, as they have the MAP built in and have a community of users that you can interact with. Ensign owns the rights to the MAP and was integral in bringing it's indicators to the marketplace. The other site is using Ensign's software and charging more. Ensign is a charting package filled with good tools & has a very lage/loyal user group that shares ideas. For forex, you may be able to power ensign with data from the forex broker you already use; I'm not sure, but the Ensign guys are great to work with, so give them a call and they'll set you straight if you want to play with the MAP in Forex or any market. Some links:
Ensign Software
daCharts e-mini index futures chat community and charts (Dacharts.com is a free online trading community, many users use Ensign)
Here is a link to searching Ensign's site for any articles on the MAP:
Ensign Software - Search

Please let us know if you experiment with this tool Best wishes to you and all the good folks here, B

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  #56 (permalink)
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bgtrader View Post
Hi Hyperion,
Um, I'd forget about themarketmap.com site. If you want to play with the MAP technology, go straight to Ensign Software for charting, as they have the MAP built in and have a community of users that you can interact with. Ensign owns the rights to the MAP and was integral in bringing it's indicators to the marketplace. The other site is using Ensign's software and charging more. Ensign is a charting package filled with good tools & has a very lage/loyal user group that shares ideas. For forex, you may be able to power ensign with data from the forex broker you already use; I'm not sure, but the Ensign guys are great to work with, so give them a call and they'll set you straight if you want to play with the MAP in Forex or any market. Some links:
Ensign Software
daCharts e-mini index futures chat community and charts (Dacharts.com is a free online trading community, many users use Ensign)
Here is a link to searching Ensign's site for any articles on the MAP:
Ensign Software - Search

Please let us know if you experiment with this tool Best wishes to you and all the good folks here, B

Ensign is great for the esoteric. I spent some time with the Pesevento Map, it's suggested using a short time frame such as 2 minute charts. As I recall it based on where fib projection/extensions/time cycles should be. As with any projection/forecasting methods it has inversions........direct opposite blow outs of the prediction.

If you are going to try Ensign you may want to look at Pyrapoint. I can't say that I fully understand how to use it, but there is definitely something there.

BTW, regarding back to BTF, I have sat in on a few of their demos and they are pretty darn accurate. I am a probably going to stay on my own, having found an affinity for Murrey Math, but I would recommend anyone taking a look. It's based on sound logical principles.

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  #57 (permalink)
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bgtrader View Post
Hi Hyperion,
Um, I'd forget about themarketmap.com site. If you want to play with the MAP technology, go straight to Ensign Software for charting, as they have the MAP built in and have a community of users that you can interact with. Ensign owns the rights to the MAP and was integral in bringing it's indicators to the marketplace. The other site is using Ensign's software and charging more. Ensign is a charting package filled with good tools & has a very lage/loyal user group that shares ideas. For forex, you may be able to power ensign with data from the forex broker you already use; I'm not sure, but the Ensign guys are great to work with, so give them a call and they'll set you straight if you want to play with the MAP in Forex or any market. Some links:
Please let us know if you experiment with this tool Best wishes to you and all the good folks here, B

Hello bgtrader.
Thanks for the heads-up on Ensign. I checked out their site and they are reasonably priced with an extensive study collection and the MAP. So they are definitely a serious new option for me with regards to real time data feeds although their updated intraday MAP can be quite a hit or miss game.
Yes I have given up on themarketmap site, although I did find another site called marketpatternforecast.com which is very similar. The problem for me with these cyclical forecasts are the periods of inversion which I understand is a natural consequence but it can really throw a spanner into the works.

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  #58 (permalink)
 Vendor: backtothefuturetrading.com 
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BackToTheFutureTrading.com

Moderator Note
This post has been edited so that it adheres with the futures.io (formerly BMT) no self-promotion policy. I would also like to remind ALL participants of this thread that no slander is allowed on the site, if you have an opinion about a vendor you need to directly cite your specific relationship and direct experiences with this vendor. Thank you -- Big Mike



We appreciate the activity on the thread...it's a great compliment to hear the things traders are saying about our software.

While my web development skills are not the greatest, I will stand by this software and it's abilities, and let them speak for themselves.

(edited: removed multiple paragraphs of text with details on the system -- Big Mike)


Last edited by Big Mike; May 17th, 2010 at 04:28 PM. Reason: no self-promotion
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  #59 (permalink)
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Flux Capicator folks periodically send me charts since I attended a webinar. How confident can they be when they refuse to allow a trial period. Not even one week. Seriously laughable.

From what I've seen:
their charts seems to be right 33% of the time. Market will go opposite projected direction 33% and is completely out of step 33% of the time. If you think you can use that to make money consistently than power to ya.

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  #60 (permalink)
 Vendor: backtothefuturetrading.com 
East Bend
 
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BackToTheFutureTrading.com


Moderator Note
This post has been edited so that it adheres with the futures.io (formerly BMT) no self-promotion policy. I would also like to remind ALL participants of this thread that no slander is allowed on the site, if you have an opinion about a vendor you need to directly cite your specific relationship and direct experiences with this vendor. Thank you -- Big Mike



Scott,

This is Michael, of BTTFT.

Please don't be cavalier with words like "laughable" when posting about our site. People actually read this forum. Gentlemen like you, that don't own the product and have no experience, love to post what they think the product actually does or doesn't do with no actual experience.

(edited: removed offer -- Big Mike)

(edited: removed details about system -- Big Mike)


There's nothing laughable about what we do. (edited: removed references and comparisons to competitors -- Big Mike) We spend 2 months erasing old habits, and 2 months rebuilding live saving habits, including but not limited to trading plan development, strategy development, back testing and model analysis, money management, and emotional trading state control techniques.

(edited: removed details about system -- Big Mike)

(edited: removed offer -- Big Mike)


Please consider the effect such a post has on someone that has never been to the webinar or done their due diligence or asked for a trial yet.

It completely discourages them and prevents them from the potential of ever escaping the gravity of their trading sins, and getting into a program that Mark Douglas and Jack Schwager would be proud of.

Michael


Last edited by Big Mike; May 17th, 2010 at 04:31 PM. Reason: no self-promotion
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