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Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future
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Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future

  #21 (permalink)
Elite Member
Denver, Colorado
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Okay I'll bite. I watched a number of their videos and the idea seems solid, data mining for patterns over the recent term, to give you advance warnings. The fact that they show losers and claim approx. 70 percent ok.

So what the deal with 2 vendors and websites? Mordi, Ron, Michael? Whom? Is it the same product, improved, not? Why do they look different from website to website?

Frankly, I don't think know days in advance is a big plus. Hell I would pay good $$$ for a legitimate product that could predict 5 minutes in advance with 70-80% accuracy.

If they are trying to get looks with a cheesy name then congrats.

Ban do you actually use this tool to make money? How about posting some predictions after the 1st of the year? That would be appreciated much. Like most I have been around the block 4 times minimum. Good trading to all.

Dan

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  #22 (permalink)
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Jeddah
 
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i'm using the flux as well and was in mordi's room. flux is a software by back to the future trading, mordi is someone who uses flux with his own system and runs his own room (tradersforce.com)...bttft recommends its users to subscribe to mordi's room for better results than their own setups with the flux, hence the different websites.
flux gives you institutional buying/selling times in advance. the timing depends on the lookback period you have selected (recommended is 20). i would say it works 65% of the time in ES but from what i've seen in classes it works much better on gold, soybeans and crude oil. i use my own setups to trade the flux; one of them is to use 2 lookback periods 20 and 70 days and when they give the same timing for buy/sell it usually is a strong move in the direction.

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  #23 (permalink)
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Does Mordi trade anything but ES? I like GC also. Thanks for explanation makes more sense.

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  #24 (permalink)
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Jeddah
 
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you're welcome. till i was in the room he traded the ES only.
bttft have a weekly webinar every thursday and they also let you sit in the live classes with live trades and timing (for ES, GC, CL etc.). you should register for that if you're interested and will also give you a better idea if it is something for you.

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  #25 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.tradersforce.com 
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guys,

i am trading with mordi and he is trading now also the CL (since no trend on indexes)
here is a chart from the room today
look at the bar colors and buy and sell signals (remember buy above the 2nd blue bar short below the 2nd red bar , this will keep out of bad trades)

ban.

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Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future-cl-02-10-12_29_2009-4-range-.jpg  
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  #26 (permalink)
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So does he show the flux in the room or not? I ask because after watching his videos he doesn't show the flux in any of them just his red blue bars, which obviously you are.

I appreciate you posting your charts. Hopefully you will continue to do so. I am on holiday until the 8th but plan on contacting him.

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  #27 (permalink)
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Jeddah
 
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dandxg View Post
So does he show the flux in the room or not? I ask because after watching his videos he doesn't show the flux in any of them just his red blue bars, which obviously you are.

I appreciate you posting your charts. Hopefully you will continue to do so. I am on holiday until the 8th but plan on contacting him.

he does not share flux charts on his screen, only his charts which may or may not have the flux buy/sell dots with the timings. he will share the flux charts on the screen for a while if you ask him to. he does this because he assumes everyone in the room already has flux.
if you like GC then i suggest you take a look at sp500guru.com; there are 2 rooms, one for ES only and the other, premium room, for ES and GC. they bought from 1000 area all the way upto 1200 and reversed from there, still short with 1150-70 as maj res now and major target of 1020.

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  #28 (permalink)
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possible ingredients to Flux Capacitor predictions....

Hi y'all,
I have a theory on the software ingredients that comprise the Back to the Future prediction engine.
1) Neuroshell Day Trader Professional Software
This software can be found at Neuroshell (can't post links yet, only first post And this link, shows several of their models that used neural network & genetic algorithms to predict price sometimes 5 days in the future based on the software studying past data:
Look for their link of GeeWhiz examples under "Product Info"
2) There are many available plug-ins to Neuroshell, which Neuroshell can use in it's strategy models and prediction models. The plug-in list can be found here:
under "Product Info", under Add-ons
3) There is one plug-in company whose indicators look remarkable like Back to the Future's AMACD and Power Zone, to my eyes,...the company is called Icinder. Their website is:
Icinder
4) I theorize that the AMACD is actually iCinDER™ V2, link to desciption at their site with chart with V2.

What can be done with Neuroshell and this indicator is Neuroshell can analyze 50-60 days of price data and predict the V2 indicator forward hours and/or days.
5) I theorize that the Power Zone is actually iCinDER™ W3, link to description here:
at their Icinder site
image here:
also at site
Notice, how the W3 indicator is tracking longer/larger cycles/moves and the V2 is tracking price more closely like the AMACD. Again, Neuroshell can analyze W3 over years or months of data and predict W3 hours, minutes, and/or days in the future.
Icinder's help manual with a little more information can be found here:
look up at the Icinder site the link "Icinder for Neuroshell", then you can find a link that says something like "you can access help files for v2 and w3 here"
Go through their tutorial and you'll see some prediction examples with Neuroshell and with Neuroshell's other software package for trading as well as science apps called "Chaos Hunter"

I believe that prediction algorithms could be discovered within Neuroshell with W3 and V2, perhaps different prediction algos for different markets, then coded up for Ninja Trader or other platforms, rename the indicators, but keep the code and prediction algorithms, then supply Ninja Trader with historical data and let the algo + indicator analyze and then predict their plots a certain amount into the future.

Obviously, there could be more inputs/variables that went into the prediction algorithm, but I'm pretty confident that I'm on the trail here. There are a few other well known AI prediction trading software analysis/forecast packages out there: Wave59 has one, Mark Jurik has his own version, Biocomp Systems have 2 packages...I believe their package Profit 8.0 has this predict ability-could be there other one-and there are other lesser known ones...such as Salford Systems MARS-Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines at Salford Systems website...which is supposedly the super duper industrial strength engine for such predictions...which could also be fed similar Icinder cycle indicator formulas with price data to produce prediction formulas. They could have studied Icinder or like formulas with these packages and then written their own more portable neural net/genetic algo for pluging into Ninja Trader/Metatrader...that's my theory.

I think it's very interesting how AI can help us in analyzing the markets...Neuroshell is a pricey package, but, if a group of trading buddies all pitched in together, it could be a fun toolset to create strategies and prediction models that a group could share. Another Neuroshell plug-in company that intrigues me is Noxa Analytics at "NoxaPredict"

there's a Noxa downloadable tutorial and pdfs at their site, just snoop around for the Neuroshell Noxa packages, and you might have to give them name/email to get access to some of the pdfs...

here's a Noxa link to their Entropy indicators/tools: somewhere at their site

Again, the important thing here is that all these tools inside of a package like Neuroshell can study past price and predict themselves into the future. And, I believe you could then either code up or buy the rights to neural nets/genetic algos (i.e. Jurik's engines) and port them into Ninja Trader with the goal of predicting certain indicators that you could also buy the rights to & rename or code up something similar. Curious to hear your guys feedback on this theory.
-happy near year and best wishes always, I go sleep,
BG

p.s. from my studies in ES, I'd say the reason Flux doesn't work as well is because the ES has many more institutions battling each other's positions and has greater volume thus greater numbers of players interacting with eachother, making it harder to predict with such models, BUT easier to predict using simple volume tracking methods like VSA and cumulative delta bid/ask volume indexing, etc, just have to remember that the cycles are often jumpier & quicker for intraday, that's the trade off for all that liquidity...if someone studied the intricacies of volume cycles of the ES, I believe the prediction models could be better tuned to provide more accurate readings. But, it makes sense that less violent, slightly to greatly less liquid contracts that trend a bit longer/smoother would show up better under the prediction models...and obviously it makes sense that contracts that represented something real/natural like a commodity or even a currency may have more natural cycles that could be picked up easier than the battles going on in the ES.

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  #29 (permalink)
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quote from Icinder about their algorithms

a great number of points in this quote are spoken about in Back the Futures free webinar recording...


iCinDER™ Algorithms

The algorithms used in the iCinDER™ family of indicators are extractions of dimensions of price, time and attributes of the aforementioned. They specifically address the cyclical nature of market instruments and are an attempt to measure the Minor, Intermediate and Major Cycles as addressed in the Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. These specific indicators have been enhanced with volatility measurements and convergence and divergence algorithms. The specific timeframes for the products have been tested and have been found to be a “best match” for financial instruments, such as stocks, indices, ETFs and Futures. The time model has a high correlation to the business cycle and its measurements. The model measures specific timeframe cycles and integrates an overall cycle measurement algorithm that evaluates the dimensions of time, price and entropy. The result is an approximation to the dominant cycle with midpoint levels and cycle start and stops at the troughs of the indicator. A secondary abstraction, in the form of a sine wave provides an approximation of the view of the cycle in a wave format. With this information in hand the technical analyst can access the bullish or bearish bias of the financial instrument and make a reasonable assumption as to the possible trend movement of the financial instrument.

----------------------------------------------------------

Remember, with a neural net/genetic algos package like Neuroshell, you can train the above mentioned algorithms to forecast themselves many bars into the future, thus plotting the AMACD (V2 imho) and Power Zone (W3 imho) forward in time according to cycles/etc...that the neural net/genetic algos found and predict will repeat in the future.

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  #30 (permalink)
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Thanks for the feedback BG. I was thinking the same from the start, but don't have a background in programming to create an algo, which is what they have. I mean aren't we really just talking about advanced data mining for patterns? I think their look pretty impressive but an algo nonetheless.

It's funny you mention Jurik as they even refer to him more than once. I actually looked at Wave 59 and was a bit put off by the you need to pay extra to learn if you really want to learn our best tools attitude.

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