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Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future


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Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future

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  #221 (permalink)
Castle Pines N, CO.
 
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BTTFT Michael View Post
Hi Mark,

The non-marketing terms of this website as dictated to me by Mike prevent me from responding to you using examples to substantiate my accuracy claims, as they fall under the "self-promotion" clauses of this forum. I can justify it - I'm just not allowed to do it here.

There are examples of automated systems that could be discussed, and displayed, that violate the Vendor-non-marketing terms and conditions of this website which I respect, and attempt always to strictly adhere to. I do not wish to be thrown off of the site, and have an understanding with Mike that if people want to see claims substantiated, they have to contact me privately - which I also encourage, and am happy to do.

As you can imagine, any edge can be harnessed - in an automated, semi-automated, or even as the basis for a discretionary format. Most people I've come across who are using timing analysis and data mining in their trading, are using timing as a secondary indicator - in conjunction with another primary / non-correlated tool (VSA or price action HH/HL/LH/LL for example).

Maybe MarkG or some other member could contact Micheal and report back here with the proof.. Also with the language of automation , Seems like a vendor can submit a bot to run in the unofficial category ..

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  #222 (permalink)
Philadelphia, PA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja, TradeStation, IB
Trading: Futures, CL, Gold
 
Posts: 2 since Jun 2013
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There are many naysayers to this software package. You reinforced a valuable lesson "Free Advice is generally worth what you pay for it ...nothing."

I am happy that I went to a couple of presentations to see for myself. I thought it impressive and bought it. It does take screen time, I am not aware of a system that does not. The reward for me have been well worth the effort. Depending upon volatility in the market I garner between 90 and 200 ticks per contract per day. I generally trade Oil and the Russell between 8:30 - 11:30 Eastern Time. Beside the ticks, it is virtually stress free trading, almost boring sometimes.

Is it for everyone, heck no! - Nothing is. It is for someone who wants an edge to their trading.

Don't take my word for it, and don't take the word of the naysayers who spent a modicum of time reviewing, or disbelieving the concepts. Listen to the seminars yourself, with an open mind. Pay attention to the content presented, not the personality of the presenters

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  #223 (permalink)
Switzerland
 
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Attached is a chart emailed out by Michael of Back to the Future Trading last Wednesday, September 23, 2015. He states "looking for setups in TIME where the institutions are most likely to make a move, like this one in Crude, today".

I have marked the chart with thick green lines for winning trades and thick red lines for losing trades.

As you can see, if you count PowerZone (big dot) trades only, there are 3 winners and 6 losers (33% winners).

If you are more aggressive and count both PowerZone (big dot) and AMACD (small dot) trades, there are 6 winners and 10 losers (37% winners).

I have never known how Back to the Future Trading have determined their 65-70% certainty and can justify it but to me it is at best 50% (which is the probability you get when you draw random dots).

I'm an owner of a licensed copy of the software package and have been trying for several years to incorporate it in a trading system.

I even digitized all the signals and fed them into a statistical based machine-learning system in order to disprove the "null hypothesis". After spending hundreds of hours, I came to the conclusion that you CANNOT "Know with statistical certainty when a move was coming - to the minute - and in what direction" with this software.

For your information and to help you draw your own conclusions.


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  #224 (permalink)
Philadelphia, PA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Hi Mark,

I guess one of the things that needs correcting is that on the chart you’ve shared, you’re calling every dot a “trade entry”. Never has Michael said these were trade entries – in fact, there’s no evidence really of any strict stop/target backtesting here. You’re just drawing lines dot to dot and expecting an “ATM” machine response. That’s unrealistic in my opinion.

In the classes, Michael teaches that the signals in the direction of the overall trend that occur in time are usually more pronounced, which is exactly what shows up on this chart. Signals with trend – is a concept that is consistent with Wyckoff accumulation and distribution theory, meaning the times that are in the direction of the down trend, are more powerful moves. The times that are opposite trends, produce weaker moves, or consolidation.

If I take the chart you’ve marked up – “trading” signal to signal – and apply just one small set of rules – trading with trend, the system becomes profitable.

In your drawing, I’ve “whited-out” all your annotations, and put big arrows on the times that were occurring with trend – the red dots. Then I looked at what happened if I went short at those times, and held the trade until the next green dot time – the time Michael would teach that buyers historically show up. This system I believe is taught in the videos as the “FM16 Trend Trade”. Well you can see from the mark up that every one of the setups was profitable….with 1 “flat” trade. A far cry from 33%. Notice how I wait for the 2nd of the 2 dots if the POWERZONE and AMACD dots are within 5 minutes of each other. That’s important….if two times are within a few minutes of each other, I was taught to wait for the 2nd one to “catch up” and come into phase. . .




I don’t think there’s a person on here who would reasonably conclude they are telling you to trade “dot to dot”, all the dots. It’s never presented as a setup like you’re displaying. A setup involves a stop, a target, money management, a trading style (trend, counter trend, support and resistance, etc). Your chart is dot to dot to dot to dot to dot, and I can’t remember Michael or Ron ever teaching that was the way to ‘trade it’. My trading plan has very strict entry and exit rules that allow me to take between 80-120 ticks per day, per contract, more with recent volatility. If I took every signal from every indicator I’d be broke.

I’ve also attached the chart Michael put in the room to help people understand the Wyckoff theory I just told you. If you attend the classes each week, you should have a copy of this. Also, have you contacted Michael or Ron, or sat in any of their classes? They give away rules based strategies that have set entries and exits with trading plans built on the system that are profitable. They want you to succeed. I know because I’m using one of them… I have "coached" about a dozen other traders to have success similar to or better than mine. So it is teachable and transferable if you are willing to put in the time.



Best regards,

Bob

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  #225 (permalink)
East Bend
 
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Hi Mark,

Forum rules prevent me from responding critically to your post, defending it in any way - as this would be perceived as "Marketing". I don't want to get thrown off the forum, again.

My first and primary concern is for you, and your trading - and satisfaction with our product. Our records show no recent activity in any of the live training rooms, or correspondence from you with regards to your experiences with the product. As I'm sure you'll agree, it's virtually impossible to solve a problem you don't know exists.

CL is our most popularly traded market among profitable customers. I would love to schedule a GoToMeeting between you, me, and the other founder of the company - Ron Gardner - who live trades the signals for our corporate account. We can give you a defined rule-set whose profitability ranges from 62-67% in CL, with a defined discretion free trading plan. Just judging from the chart above - you never tried to develop a trading plan and spent more time "disproving" something you just purchased...which strikes me as contradictory and odd (but I don't know the full story).

I can be reached whenever you're free at:

(336) 703-7667 (mobile number)

Skype: Integra-Michael

Email: Michael@backtothefuturetrading.com

....to schedule the class, and teach you the setups I mentioned above. I hope you'll take me up on it, and give us an opportunity to teach you how to use the thing you bought.

-Michael

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  #226 (permalink)
the coin hunter
virginia
 
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BTTFT Michael View Post
Hi Mark,

Forum rules prevent me from responding critically to your post, defending it in any way - as this would be perceived as "Marketing". I don't want to get thrown off the forum, again.
...

CL is our most popularly traded market among profitable customers. I would love to schedule a GoToMeeting between ...

(336) 703-7667 (mobile number)

Skype: Integra-Michael

Email: Michael@backtothefuturetrading.com

....to schedule the class, and teach you the setups I mentioned above. I hope you'll take me up on it, and give us an opportunity to teach you how to use the thing you bought.

-Michael

still looks exactly like marketing.

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  #227 (permalink)
East Bend
 
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Hey Cory,

The last 3 customers (three) that tried to post positive reviews on here were tossed off because

(a) they didn't have 20 posts somewhere else on the site (the minimum "post" requirement or
(b) they were told that they were probably someone from my company.

The first customer manages a multi-million dollar hedge fund, and trades profitably.

The second customer has a net worth of over $10,000,000 - and makes on average $1,500-$2,000 a week.

Those posts don't make it to this forum, for some reason.

When I see a customer who is struggling on here - I'm going to react. I'm going to ask honest questions - like, "What was your trading plan?", or, "what was your expectancy of the model you were testing".

When you came out with your VOLSTOP indicator, no where did you ever say, "take every signal, signal to signal". Guys discussed how they were trading it - trading with trend, trading as S/R, trading at POC, VAL, VAH. When someone suggests that for one of your indicators, everyone corrects them. When I do it - and offer help, it's marketing.

I've given up caring what non-customers on this forum think. I've reached out to the customer - who made a mistake - without any training....went off on his own and had difficulties. I don't treat it like the other vendors - the sale and run guys that couldn't give a rat's ass.

Wait - that probably sounded like marketing too....LOL.

I give up. Think what you think, man. Live long and prosper, everyone.

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  #228 (permalink)
Site Administrator
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BTTFT Michael View Post
Hey Cory,

The last 3 customers (three) that tried to post positive reviews on here were tossed off because

(a) they didn't have 20 posts somewhere else on the site (the minimum "post" requirement or
(b) they were told that they were probably someone from my company.

I'd like to research your claims, please provide specifics including their usernames.

Mike

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  #229 (permalink)
the coin hunter
virginia
 
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BTTFT Michael View Post
Hey Cory,

..

All you have to do is saying 'pm me' like any other vendor. Mike was pretty clear on that.

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  #230 (permalink)
Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
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BTTFT Michael View Post
Hey Cory,

The last 3 customers (three) that tried to post positive reviews on here were tossed off because

(a) they didn't have 20 posts somewhere else on the site (the minimum "post" requirement or
(b) they were told that they were probably someone from my company.

The first customer manages a multi-million dollar hedge fund, and trades profitably.

The second customer has a net worth of over $10,000,000 - and makes on average $1,500-$2,000 a week.

Those posts don't make it to this forum, for some reason.

When I see a customer who is struggling on here - I'm going to react. I'm going to ask honest questions - like, "What was your trading plan?", or, "what was your expectancy of the model you were testing".

When you came out with your VOLSTOP indicator, no where did you ever say, "take every signal, signal to signal". Guys discussed how they were trading it - trading with trend, trading as S/R, trading at POC, VAL, VAH. When someone suggests that for one of your indicators, everyone corrects them. When I do it - and offer help, it's marketing.

I've given up caring what non-customers on this forum think. I've reached out to the customer - who made a mistake - without any training....went off on his own and had difficulties. I don't treat it like the other vendors - the sale and run guys that couldn't give a rat's ass.

Wait - that probably sounded like marketing too....LOL.

I give up. Think what you think, man. Live long and prosper, everyone.


Hi @BTTFT Michael,


I receive e-mails from your company and sometimes I watch the videos linked in them. I am not a customer. You make some fair points in your rebuttals, and I do agree that at times the "anti-vendor" sentiment is so strong here, you might not get a fair shake.

That said, verifiable results (proof) can win an argument. You could PM folks on the forum and show them P/L, expectancy, backtests, etc. Those people could then relay what they saw. Better yet, take a single notable/credible member of the futures.io (formerly BMT) community and let them trade the EXACT strategy on CL you are proposing for this latest struggling customer.

There are avenues to winning this argument or at least countering with some verifiable metrics. It would require more than writing protest responses. Hell, I would even contribute CASH into a pool so you could have something for your time if a member like @cory (not that he would or should volunteer) stepped up to test the defined CL strategy.

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