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Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future
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Flux Capacitor - by Back to the Future

  #211 (permalink)
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Latest chart sent out by Michael of Back to the Future Trading

Attached is the latest chart sent out by Michael of Back to the Future Trading. He claims "where we knew with reasonable certainty...65%+ accuracy, that the move was coming, and in what direction".

I have marked the chart with thick green lines for winning trades and thick red lines for losing trades.

As you can see, if you count PowerZone (big dot) trades only, there are 3 winners and 4 losers (43% winners).

If you are more aggressive and count both PowerZone (big dot) and AMACD (small dot) trades, there are 10 winners and 10 losers (50% winners).

I have never known how they come up with there 65-70% certainty and can justify it but to me it is more like 50% (which is the probability you get when you draw random dots).

For your information to draw your own conclusions.

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  #212 (permalink)
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Vendor comment


MarkG View Post
Attached is the latest chart sent out by Michael of Back to the Future Trading. He claims "where we knew with reasonable certainty...65%+ accuracy, that the move was coming, and in what direction".

I have marked the chart with thick green lines for winning trades and thick red lines for losing trades.

As you can see, if you count PowerZone (big dot) trades only, there are 3 winners and 4 losers (43% winners).

If you are more aggressive and count both PowerZone (big dot) and AMACD (small dot) trades, there are 10 winners and 10 losers (50% winners).

I have never known how they come up with there 65-70% certainty and can justify it but to me it is more like 50% (which is the probability you get when you draw random dots).

For your information to draw your own conclusions.

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I have seen the vendor comment in this thread maybe Michael of Back to the Future Trading can comment..

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  #213 (permalink)
Shakes
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small sample size


I don't mean to stick up for the product. But it is a small sample size. If they could supply us with a couple weeks of charts from June to July 14 etc.. That would give us a better sample size.
regards

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  #214 (permalink)
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Magiklair View Post
I don't mean to stick up for the product. But it is a small sample size. If they could supply us with a couple weeks of charts from June to July 14 etc.. That would give us a better sample size.
regards

I think MarkG point was that the vendor sent out this snippet of a chart, and we dont really see what the vendor thinks we should see as reasonable, so I dont think a bigger sample would make any difference.
"Attached is the latest chart sent out by Michael of Back to the Future Trading. He claims "where we knew with reasonable certainty...65%+ accuracy, that the move was coming, and in what direction"."

Don

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  #215 (permalink)
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Back to the Future Trading

Yepper, I bit the bullet on the software package. After studying and employing "Al Brooks Price Action" for four years, I can tell you first hand that less on a screen is better - BTTFT fills a screen mostly with non-essential lines, dots, etc. BTTFT needs a 30-day free-look like the gentleman in the F-16 trading room. The gentleman in charge of that room is not in favor of indicators as he tells you. However, with that as a back drop, he does use proprietary software to make his calls. After speaking with him, I know he possesses great experience as a person and professional trader. He is also keenly interested in the success of a trader. [And, I am not a relative of his . . :-)]

As Big Mike would say it, "No indicator will make a successful trader. It take lots of screen time." Moral: don't pay for fancy promises or enthusiastically presented software. If inclined to purchase, make certain you speak with at least two professional traders and review their actual trading accounts. If the vendor or the person interviewed does not answer all of your Q's, do not buy!

Serious note: As in the case of BTTFT, there were "discoveries on their website" that were not disclosed before I purchased. Full-disclosure should be extremely important!! Now, back to trading and best to all!!!

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  #216 (permalink)
 Vendor: backtothefuturetrading.com 
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Hey Gentlemen,

When analyzing behavioral time patterns, traders should look at local trend to identify the propensity of the people who move the market to move more in that direction when a certain time comes up again in the cycle.

Referencing the chart above - each of those times were analyzed using a historical look back to identify specific times in the past when institutional traders had bought or sold CL.

Richard Wyckoff, father of modern "Volume Spread Analysis" techniques proposed a way to interpret the market in one of two formats - either the accumulation phase - or the distribution phase. Up trend, or down trend.

If we analyze the chart above posted by Mark - we see information (not trading signals as Mark suggests). The information being analyzed for accuracy is held to a specific benchmark - did structure bear out the existence of someone buying or selling when the cycle came around again?

It's especially important to look at the times that are in the direction of the prevailing trend - using Wyckoff's theories. In that case, we'd evaluate based on trend and compare to the dots. We'd look to see - did the market close higher, after the green dot printed in an uptrend - did the market close lower, after the red dot printed in a downtrend.

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When you identify a time that the market has a tendency usually go up at - or down at - watching for activity that corresponds to an accumulation phase or distribution phase can enhance the probability of that behavior recurring again. In the case of the chart Mark posted - watch at the times like 10:00am....there is a consolidation phase - 10:00 was the swing high inside the congestion, and then the market broke down for 2 hours - directly into the 12:15 "green dot" time.

Wyckoff would call the green dot time at 12:15 a "re-distribution" phase. We don't expect a move up here. If anything, we expect congestion (which is what appears, structurally), or very small retracements. The expectation of congestion at the predicted time is met, as the market consolidates for 5 bars (1.25 hours).

The next "red dot" signal lines up with Wyckoff's market theories as well. If there's an expectation of another move at a certain time - identified however it's identified - we'd expect that time to be a 'structural high'. That is to say - if the institutions are in fact about to sell again (as identified by time), structurally, what would we expect to see at that time?

a. a pullback, in the direction of the trend
b. a structural high, at the identified time (the market 'peaks out', indicating the pending "sling shot" move)

At 11:00pm - we see both of those criteria met. Using time analysis - however you do it - you could look forward to the next point in time where buying behavior patterns have been observed. In Wyckoff's world - it has the potential to either be another congestion area (re-distribution) or an actual low (conversion from distribution to accumulation with a "spring" pattern prior to the reversal). In either case - we're looking to see if that behavior pattern is observed. at 3:30 am did,

a. the market put in a structural low, and/or
b. consolidate for a structurally significant period of time (indicating institutional involvement), and/or
c. reversal of the market directionally

Go back in whatever market you trade, across days/weeks/months and make a list of the times that the instrument has a tendency to go up, or down...and keep track of it. If those cycles/behavior patterns repeat into the future, overlaying Richard Wyckoff's market theory has tremendous value. Down times in down cycles are powerfully forceful moves with minimum adverse excursion - up times in a down trend are areas where the downtrend is expected to stop, retrace slightly, or congest. Up times in an uptrend, the exact opposite (reference Mark's chart, above, at 12:00pm on the very left side of the chart).

If you had generated the above times in your personal analysis (you don't need our software to do it - you can do it by hand), and overlaid an accumulation/distribution model on top of those times, you'd have given preference to the following times:

12:00 pm (green dots, up trend)
11:00pm (green dots, up trend)
10:00 am red dot, down trend)
11:00pm (red dot, down trend)
6:45 am (red dot, down trend)
3:15pm (red dot - when price action closes below down trend)
3:15am (red dot - down trend)
9:30 am (red dot - down trend)
10:00 am (red dot - down trend)
4:30 am (red dot - down trend)

Traders that use timing analysis would benefit greatly from Wyckoff's market theories. I find, personally, that it took me 5 years of personal trading angst to realize I was bottom and top picking at places where there was not much meat, theoretically, to be had. I was in fact choosing to enter the market where it was most likely to chop, with volatility. Learning to trade with trend signals - and using counter trend signals to identify profit areas, or re-entry areas with break out was a pivotal moment for me...something any of us could agree is a painful lesson to learn.

One great quote that captures the methodology pretty clearly comes from Wyckoff directly,

"…In order for there to be an effect (change in price), there needs to be a cause. The effect will be in direct proportion to that cause. Best price moves occur when there has been enough time to allow*for a period*of*accumulation or distribution..."

If you go through your charts - on any instrument - with a watch and an excel sheet - you can identify the areas where the "cause" exists. These causes can be anything from unknown Institutional buying and selling program times - or moments when the moon is directly overhead Chicago on a Tuesday. Reverse engineering that "cause" and applying it directionally (with trend) seemed to be something he endorsed. After observing WD Gann trade for a number of years, Wyckoff's methodology begins to hint that he was studying time, as well,

"....The experience of the past few years has emphasized the value of disregarding all considerations except those which relate to price movement, volume, and time…”

So in his mind - identifying the "cause" times before they occurred again - and watching for his market theory/ VSA theories to play out at those times were the highest probability entry areas for him.

Try the experiment with any instrument you trade - put a NinjaTrader "zig-zag" indi on there and record the times the swings occur on your time frame of choice. Then watch those times in the future and see what happens when those times line up with prevailing local trend.

Please send me a Private Message if you have any questions about BTTFT services

Last edited by BTTFT Michael; August 16th, 2014 at 03:02 PM.
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  #217 (permalink)
 Vendor: backtothefuturetrading.com 
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bopwillie View Post
Yepper, I bit the bullet on the software package. After studying and employing "Al Brooks Price Action" for four years, I can tell you first hand that less on a screen is better - BTTFT fills a screen mostly with non-essential lines, dots, etc. BTTFT needs a 30-day free-look like the gentleman in the F-16 trading room. The gentleman in charge of that room is not in favor of indicators as he tells you. However, with that as a back drop, he does use proprietary software to make his calls. After speaking with him, I know he possesses great experience as a person and professional trader. He is also keenly interested in the success of a trader. [And, I am not a relative of his . . :-)]

As Big Mike would say it, "No indicator will make a successful trader. It take lots of screen time." Moral: don't pay for fancy promises or enthusiastically presented software. If inclined to purchase, make certain you speak with at least two professional traders and review their actual trading accounts. If the vendor or the person interviewed does not answer all of your Q's, do not buy!

Serious note: As in the case of BTTFT, there were "discoveries on their website" that were not disclosed before I purchased. Full-disclosure should be extremely important!! Now, back to trading and best to all!!!

-Hey "Bob-Willie". I'm not sure what to make of what you said. If you're not happy with your purchase, or feel something with one of the behavioral analysis indicators isn't working properly I'd be happy to meet with you and resolve the issue - with a refund or by repairing whatever technical issues you're having. I have no records on file indicating any customers from Tennessee had an issue or a grievance. I'm not sure who you are - but I'm available all weekend if you want to call me and talk. As always there are also customers you can talk to - pre or post purchase, that can and are willing to help you make decisions. That always was, and continues to be a volunteer based resource.

Chart cleanliness is a great help in reducing psychological disparities and "self sabotage". Many traders will put as many as 10 indicators on their desktops believing "more is better". Often times, they'll choose to focus on the information that disagrees with their trading plan in a subconscious effort to sabotage themselves (mentally talk themselves out of a good trade). I know I used to do that all the time.

Most of the profitable trader's I've met have 3 or fewer indicators on their charts. I met one man, who trades CL with a 50 period SMA. I think people internalize the indicators they start out using...that is to say, they're able to "see" in their minds what the tool has taught them to see over time. Kind of like having a back brace that teaches you to use good posture, and then you develop muscle memory afterwards and always use good posture afterwards "naturally".

The guy who helped me learn to trade incorporated 3 important "qualifiers" that are relatively universal.

a. What is trend doing?
b. Where is the nearest support and resistance level?
c. Where does your signal stand in relation to (a) and (b)

If the market is moving up - support below you provides reassurance of an initial reaction. If you're using a floor trader's "PP" or a Fib cluster - there's an expectation of an impulse move away from s/r. The statistics bear out the reactions will be higher, and faster - with trend (something Gann pointed out frequently over a 100 years ago).

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Using opposite resistance levels can help deduce risk reward as well. If resistance is 10 ticks above you ,and support is 30 ticks below you - you have an inverted RR condition and should pass.

Over time, I expect to not have trend indicators on the screen. Right now, that fat blue line tells me "HEY STUPID, TREND IS UP". I need that reminder, which will one day be a subconscious determination.

Please send me a Private Message if you have any questions about BTTFT services
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  #218 (permalink)
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BTTFT Michael,

The point is that you cannot justify your claim "where we knew with reasonable certainty...65%+ accuracy, that the move was coming, and in what direction".

This is one example. There are many other claims that you make and never justify.

You have no credibility if you cannot back your claims.


BTTFT Michael View Post
Rhubarb, rhubarb, rhubarb...


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  #219 (permalink)
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If it is not a mechanical system,, its worth is in the eye of the beholder!

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  #220 (permalink)
 Vendor: backtothefuturetrading.com 
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MarkG View Post
BTTFT Michael,

The point is that you cannot justify your claim "where we knew with reasonable certainty...65%+ accuracy, that the move was coming, and in what direction".

This is one example. There are many other claims that you make and never justify.

You have no credibility if you cannot back your claims.

Hi Mark,

The non-marketing terms of this website as dictated to me by Mike prevent me from responding to you using examples to substantiate my accuracy claims, as they fall under the "self-promotion" clauses of this forum. I can justify it - I'm just not allowed to do it here.

There are examples of automated systems that could be discussed, and displayed, that violate the Vendor-non-marketing terms and conditions of this website which I respect, and attempt always to strictly adhere to. I do not wish to be thrown off of the site, and have an understanding with Mike that if people want to see claims substantiated, they have to contact me privately - which I also encourage, and am happy to do.

As you can imagine, any edge can be harnessed - in an automated, semi-automated, or even as the basis for a discretionary format. Most people I've come across who are using timing analysis and data mining in their trading, are using timing as a secondary indicator - in conjunction with another primary / non-correlated tool (VSA or price action HH/HL/LH/LL for example).

Please send me a Private Message if you have any questions about BTTFT services
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