and here's another example why that kind of statistic is pointless. you're long, going for 3 points and stop is 1 point. market is moving slowly, you're up 5 ticks and didn't have to take any heat so far. 10 minutes later you're still positive. now something bad happens. the market drops 2 points in a minute and stops you out.
so now you have a losing trade with a duration of 11 minutes. but in fact you were in a winning trade for 10 minutes and a losing trade for 1 minute. hope I'm making sense here.
I might look at the average duration of a trade, but never for a winning / losing trade.
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The 1st 2/3 TopStepTrader interviews with Linda Raschke, always good to hear from an articulate 30yr+ vetertan / Market Wizard about mastering the basics -
Trading is: Having the KNOWLEDGE to know when the odds are in my favour, having the PATIENCE to wait for that moment, then having the DISCIPLINE to handle the trade properly when it goes in my favour and properly when it goes against me
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So, after about a year of trying, on-and-off, to pass the TST combine I finally have -- just barely, the target was $3,500 profit. I first started my combine journey with /ES but a friend got me into /CL and I have been trading that exclusively for about 6 months now. I made this combine in particular much harder for myself by taking a couple of big hits near the end, when I should have been more cautious, but my system/method came through with a big overnight setup that got me over the top. I'm posting this because I know people have a lot of questions about what happens next -- as do I -- so I will attempt to address those questions and well as share my post-combine-success-experience.
Lastly, a couple of notes on the additional parameters that must be met: I had one of my largest Avg Win to Avg Loss spreads to date, one of my largest Win Duration to Loss Duration spreads, and strangely it was the first time my Total Win % was under the 45% threshold -- hey, you only need 2 of 3. My methodology evolved for this combine -- and has even evolved since -- so I'm not sure if this new lower Total Win % is par for the course but whatever shows larger returns in the long run I'm down with. Oh, and, I mostly just use Fibs, no indicators, nothing fancy, just Fibs and theory.
HollywoodTrader
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