I've rewritten this intro post because things have changed quite a bit for me since I first started here at Big Mike's. You'll notice that the first few pages of posts in my journal are pretty old and sporadic, but I guess that's the way things go sometimes.
I currently have a blog (attitudetrader.blogspot.com) where I typically post my trades/charts for the day as well as other things. But I also enjoy this trading journal area on Big Mike's and have a few favorite journals that I read through regularly.
My entries here may remain sporadic, but again, I enjoy posting here from time to time and reading the other journals.
So thank you to Big Mike and the moderators here for providing a friendly environment for sharing ideas and support. Happy journaling!
Last edited by AttitudeTrader; July 27th, 2011 at 12:44 PM.
Reason: Updated for relevancy.
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Large range yesterday so I've added 38.2% and 61.8% RZ measurements today.
I've marked yesterday's close with a yellow line on the 5m chart.
8:43 Price touched yesterday's close (PDC) and was rejected momentarily.
8:46 Price moved back up near PDC, and while I would like to get short here, the candles are not particularly compelling right now and I'm not convinced that PDC is going to create enough resistance.
8:52 Long ES 1352.25 on 5th candle at break of PDC and previous hammer-like candle, which created a double top with prior (3rd) candle. Price appeared strong making higher lows on all but one 5m bar. Target is 1 tick below PDH @ 1354.00.
Since target is 7 ticks I've adjusted my stop to 5 ticks to maintain a favorable R:R over time.
8:58 Report out in 2 minutes.
9:02 Now that the report is out and I wasn't stopped out, I'm moving the target to 1 tick below 1/2 FE @ 1356.75. This is about 5 ticks below the 1/2 FE of 4/25L-4/27H on the 15m chart.
9:17 Price is turning around pretty hard now after nearing, but not touching PDH.
9:18 Price is back down to my entry now.
9:24 Price has neared my stop.
9:27 Apparently the PDC level has at least some importance because price has found some support there for the moment.
9:30 I'm feeling the need to get out here...
9:32 I've moved my stop to 1351.25 (low of last 5m bar) as price appears very weak (see black arrow).
9:37 Price moved down to 50% of the main upswing this morning (black Fib lines - not sure I would call it OR though) and has created three bars with the same low (triple bottom). I still have my stop in 1 tick below this level and an order to go short there as well.
9:40 Now there have been 4 bars with the same low and the last three bars have had lower highs.
9:45 Now there have been 5 bars with the same low, however the current bar is making a higher high for the moment.
9:50 Price is climbing at the moment and approaching HOD.
10:01 Price has just reached HOD.
10:04 Price has broken through HOD and PDH now on fairly strong green candle. MFE=12 so far.
10:09 Price has pulled back down and may be finding support at HOD now.
10:10 Now that price is above HOD and PDH I'm moving my stop to b/e.
10:26 Price did appear to find support at previous HOD/PDH and is attempting to make new highs again.
10:32 Price has broken below the 9:10 high as it consolidates. I'm watching for signs that I should be exiting - or reasons I would want to enter short, and at this point I don't see any, so I'll just stay with it for now.
10:41 Price had dipped down quite a bit now. Price may be turning around and I just can't see it.
10:47 Stopped out 1352.25 (second white arrow). 0, MFE: 12.
11:02 Short ES 1351.50 on break of NR green spinner after break below 34ema and 50% of morning upswing (third white arrow). Target is 1 tick above 50% at 1347.50.
11:10 Obviously not a high probability area to short. Price is about to hit my stop.
11:16 Stopped out 1353.00 (fourth white arrow). -6, MFE: 1
11:51 Short ES 1353.25 after doji at PDH and near evening star pattern (fifth white arrow). This is above and close to a rising 34ema so I may be going against the trend here. Target is 1 tick above 50%.
11:56 MAE=5 so far. Price came within 1 tick of my stop.
12:12 Price stayed up near my stop for a while but has now broken down decidedly below my entry and the 34ema.
12:18 Price has fallen to the last major 5m and 15m swing low. MFE=9 so far.
12:24 Price is still finding support at that swing low.
12:29 Price has moved all the way back up near my entry. It has touched the 34ema and may be testing it.
12:40 Price has created a nearly perfect hanging man. If the current bar can close below the real body of the hanging man, it may prompt selling.
12:46 Price closed at the high of the hanging man and then broke it on the current candle. I may be on the wrong side again here.
12:51 Price is back up to my entry again. 15m is looking pretty bullish too.
13:21 Price has moved up to PDH and found some resistance. I doubt that it will turn around here though. I think it's most likely to break higher.
13:30 Well, price has pulled back away from PDH for the moment and created a shooting star-like candle on the 15m.
13:40 Moved stop to 1 tick above PDH and placed order to go long there too. I'm doing this knowing that breakouts are low percentage plays, but price appears to have been squeezed up to PDH by a rising 34ema so the break could have some power behind it.
13:46 Stopped out 1354.50 (sixth white arrow). -5 MFE: 9.
13:46 Long ES 1354.50 on break of PDH and squeeze by rising 34ema (sixth white arrow). Target is 1 tick below FE @ 1359.25.
13:57 Price has reached up to touch HOD now.
14:07 Price was rejected by HOD, dropped down below PDH and is hanging around there right now.
14:13 Price is testing HOD again on a tall green candle...and now it has broken higher.
14:31 Price has spiked up and pierced 1/2 FE now - in fact it moved almost halfway to FE.
14:40 Moved stop to b/e.
14:43 Price making new highs again. Moving stop to low of last completed 5m bar which is a fairly NR doji.
14:47 Moved target down to 1/2 FE on 15m, which is Fib range of 4/26L-4/27H (black arrow on 15m chart).
14:48 Target has been hit multiple times but no fill on sim yet. Looks like I may have missed my opportunity.
14:45 Stopped out 1356.50 +8.
> 3 of my 4 entries weren't horrible. In fact (and I keep stats on this) 3 of those trades would have been winners using the predefined stop/target combo I've been using prior to today. Which means that the first (b/e) trade and the third (losing) trade would have been profitable, giving me a 75% win rate for the day. It may be the thing to do for now while I'm using one lots, and until I can get better at judging the longer term direction when I enter.
> Watching the 15m, as it hit 1/2 FE, for my exit on the last trade was very helpful.
> Price did the same thing it's done before - after the close of the stock market it turns around at one Fib level (1/2 FE in this case) and quickly trades back down to another Fib level (Fib High/PDH).
> The first bar of the day created the OR but I didn't give it credit, thinking that it wasn't enough for an OR. Then I realized late in the session, as I was contemplating today's "trade(s) of the day," that price had tested and found support at that ORH (lower yellow line) two different times (10:55 and 12:20) before moving higher to my original target at 1/2 FE. That level was far more important than the 50% level of the Fibs I drew over the first swing of the day (black lines on 5m).
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Got short on a break of the 4th bar low (first white arrow) after price pierced/tested the previous day's high and the overnight high and created a shooting star candle. Price moved down quickly to hit my target at yesterday's close (first black arrow) multiple times, but it never broke through and I wasn't filled. I realized later that that was also the top of the resistance zone (38.2%), and combined with a rising 34ema proved to be a pivot point for the morning.
Once price moved back into the opening range and pulled back I moved my stop for the first trade to the high of a red candle following a hanging man-like candle with the idea that if price moved back up to the high of the red candle it would create offsetting bars or a bullish engulfing pattern (second white arrow). It wasn't a strong formation but I've seen price enter the opening swing range and pull back before resuming its move to the other side of the range, and this was a play on that same type of move. Once price broke above the opening range high and stuttered I exited with some profit (third white arrow). I figured it would continue up but it didn't look very strong. Very shortly after that price hit 1/2 of the fib extension (119.1%), but it wasn't until about 1 1/2 hours later, when price fell back down to ORH, that this looked to be a decent place to exit.
I left to do some other work and when I came back I saw that price had hit my original target but not before making a pretty strong dip down. Here's where it got interesting.
Notice that on the last swing down before the big move up at the end of the session, price came down and touched the 102ema on the 5m chart and the 34ema on the 15m chart. This was also the lower part of a resistance zone of the day's high to low up to that point, and created a perfect ambush zone setup. I've marked the area with two dashed white lines that comprise the ambush zone. And although I didn't mark it, price rallied from the ambush zone right up to tag the 161.8% extension of that swing down just prior to the move up, before falling back, consolidating for one bar, then moving back up to that 161.8% extension again.
A.A.R. and Observations:
> On my first trade my target was hit multiple times and I probably would have been filled in reality but I still need to have a contingency for this situation.
> I would have been nearly as well off today just using my standard stop/target combo again rather than working a target based on a particular level. I'll keep tracking this.
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