I'm going to start posting in this journal tonight. I'll post my pre-market analysis and my review. I am on simulator and am developing a method. I have been doing this privately for a while, but i've been spinning my tires. I'm hoping that sharing my method-in-progress i can help others and they can help me. I would really, really appreciate others commenting and criticizing my analysis and asking questions and giving input. This journal is a place for honesty and collaboration. Thanks guys, i hope this works!
I use volume profiling to find areas of interest and to get the rotational idea going into the day. I use 24 hour profiles as well as split-session profiles and a volume profile composite chart. Together these profiles make up my analysis pre-market. For entries i use the 5 minute footprint chart. I try to keep it simple, consistent and to the bare-minimum.
A problem that i know of with my trading is that i'll set a plan and a map for the day based on the big picture, but then once trading starts i will be confused whether i should take a long or a short. I'd trade the plan, but my plan is more of a map than a pre-determined trade plan. So if a failure pattern comes in, i'm looking to go with that failure, regardless of the bias outlined in the plan. Like today at 1331ish, price failed to reach the prior high and then broke down below the IBH. That was saying short to me, but responsive buyers were active at prior day's vpoc at 19.5 (high of my res zone). I didn't take the trade, but i watched it cause i was just so unsure about everything at that moment.
After having written this out, i ask: do we ever know what will happen? I don't. Could i have taken the short, then scaled at the prior day's vpoc and then eventually exited the trade once i saw that buyers just weren't going to give that price up and then flipped to long for a test of my upside target at 1332.75-1334? It would have made sense. Do i need to pay Mr. Market to tell me which direction it wants to go? My max bet then needs to be within my risk parameters (2% max per trade) and my position size adjusted accordingly to my confidence in the trade.
I didn't really trade today cause i've been struggling to figure some things out. Another trade i want to address was after the FOMC minutes, price dropped down to the IBH after buying having shut off in my upside target in the 1332.75-1334 zone, then climbing up to 1332.75, but failing a tick ahead of it. Then sellers entering taking price down through the IBH and to the 1329.5 top of the support zone (1327.75-1329.5) and buyers entering. But the IB was broken into again, so a long wasn't exactly what i would have wanted to see. I was watching the footprint and i could sense that buyers were having a hard time holding it above the IBH. This would have been a nice short, but then where was my target to the downside? Possibly the o/s high at 1326.75 or the open at 1325.75 or the IB low to yday's low at 1324.75, that cluster of support including yday's low, today's open, ib low and o/s low. After today's end-of-day drop, we got back within a longer time-frame volume range and i'd think the market will want to test test the 1322-1320.5 support area which could be a solid place for considering a long.
above 1329.5, eventually expecting yearly high at 1338 to be tested (based on today's profile + composite - there isn't really anything of significance in the way and the rotation seems likely if buyers can hold it above 1329.5)
mba purchase applications at 7.00
eia petroleum status report (crude oil inventories) at 10.30 – imp – medium impact
last night buyers stepped in at 1326 and took price up above 1329.5 and then to within 3 ticks of the o/n high target. acceptance was built higher and initiative buying broke price out of the recent price range.
above initial support, expecting the yearly high to be tested at 1338 (open gap at 1337.5). above the yearly high, I am expecting the initial resistance zone to be tested at 1342-1344.5. below initial support, I am expecting the downside to be capped in the 1327.5-1325.25 zone (open gap at 1326.75 and nvpoc at 1327.5).
responsive buyers were active at initial support off the open. buyers took price up above the o/s where responsive sellers were active. Price then tested initial support / o/s low and buyers came in, but sellers were now active at the open / yday’s high. sellers then broke price down below the initial support zone where buyers were active and pushed price back up to the open / yday’s high. Sellers were active up there again and from there sellers took control and pushed price down into the downside target at 1327.25-1325.25 where the low of the day was put in. off of this zone, the bigger picture idea would have been to break above initial support, but at the end of the day when initial support was broken into from the downside, sellers were active and pushed price back down below the IBL going into the close. Sellers are closing the day in control and acceptance was built higher and value shifted slightly higher. the day was closed back within the larger timeframe volume range the ES has been in for a few days now.
Trading the big picture is going with the flow of the bigger picture. I'm trading the bigger picture with the 5 minute. Intraday i have to be bale to spot action that can change the flow of the bigger picture, at least temporarily. Like today off of initial support zone at 1331-1333, price bounced off of it, broke above the o/s high and found responsive sellers and broke back into the o/s and tested the initial support zone high again. Then buyers took price up to the open where responsive sellers were found. Then sellers tested lower and buyers entered at the low of the initial support zone and again tested the open, but sellers were active and eventually over-powered the buyers. this was saying that upside is now very unlikely, at least temporarily, and that the big pic flow could now be heading down. The next level of support was at the 1327.5-1325.5 area and i expected buyers to be active here as it was my downside target. Buyers were active and a change in flow again occurred, now to the upside. The idea is to have a clear image in your mind of what the bigger picture is and what the flow is going into the open and then to trade that flow until something dis-confirms it, changes in intraday.
haven't been feeling so great. Yday i didn't do anything and today i won't, but i'll post my analysis.
dennis lockhart speaks at 8.00
wholesale trade at 10.00 – low
fomc member fisher speaks at 10.15 – medium
not much news today, so can’t expect much volatility. Expecting the yearly highs to be taken out today above initial support. if sellers can push price down below initial support, buyers have lost control in the short-term and longs are riskier anywhere before the downside target. expecting responsive sellers at the initial resistance zone in the 1342s. open gap at 1337.5 and 1328.5 and 1321. Nvpocs at 1342, 1329, 1322. All of these are targets and I expect the closest ones to be hit first. bias is bullish above initial support.