below 50.5, expecting sellers to take price down to test the 38-40 support zone where I’d expect responsive buyers to be active on first test. above 50.5, expecting responsive sellers at 62.25 (yday’s vpoc) and then at 68.25, which is the line in the sand. above 68.25, 75.75-77.25 is key and I’d expect sellers to be active there. expecting responsive buyers to be active at 3.25-29.5. above 68.25, I’d expect rotations off of each resistance zone. below 50.5, the downside target is 1118 and lower.
expecting responsive sellers at 10.5-12.75 – important level
above 12.75, target is 32.5-30 where I expect responsive sellers to be active
below 91.25, sellers are in control in the short-term
68.25 is the line in the sand for a pullback from current prices
- below, target is 38
if buyers can hold price above 32.5, huge picture is looking a lot more bullish and a lot higher prices are expected
icsc-goldman store sales at 7.45
redbook at 8.55
s&p case-shiller HPI at 9.00 – imp – medium
consumer confidence at 10.00 – imp - high
state street investor confidence index at 10.00
narayana kocherlakota speaks at 12.15 – medium fomc minutes at 2.00 – imp - high
expecting responsive buyers on first test of 91.5-93. below 91.5, the short-term is bearish with the downside target at 68.25, where I’d expect responsive buyers to be active. above 91.5, picture is bullish with buyers in control and upside target is at 32.5-30.5 where I’d expect responsive sellers to be active. below 03, the very short-term is bearish and I’d expect responsive sellers at 02.25-03.25 on first test.
So, i've moved on and been shown a new method using auction market theory with MP. The prior method i used worked and the more i review, the more i realize they are practically the same, but i am able to filter out a lot of noise and i can better determine which side i want to be trading on.
The prior method was really great for trading trends, but this new way of looking at it allows me to trade both trending and balancing days. This new method is based on market value.
bounced off of the low of the 4 day balance area we were in. it was a high-confidence day up from that point on. acceptance was following price upwards. shorts were very low probability today.
looking at today's structure: the market wasn't really able to rest.... it was forced, forced, forced, forced, forced. is that really reliable structure? is that really how the larger-term traders accumulate positions? digestion is a possibility for tomorrow as likely buyers aren't going to be too confident in this "base." it's a data-point that i will keep in mind for tomorrow.
attempted direction today was up on higher volume. we're right at the top of this large bracket and longs are risky below the 31s, at these higher prices. if the market gets below the obvious profile split between the upper two distributions (13s or so) and finds acceptance, then i'd expect the market to rotate around, feeling out these forced prices.
also, if the market opens below the 13s, then that could be a sign of excess, and end of the auction, coming off of the bracket high area.
in addition, taking a look at this swing from the 69s low, this market may be getting too long. every time we have approached the bracket high up here, the market sold-off twice. now today we breached this area again... will there be another sell-off and is this market too long? something to keep in mind and the 13s is the line in the sand for me. also, the structure that brought us up here (below this 5 day balance area) is quite poor and forced looking.
Last edited by bojangle; October 18th, 2011 at 10:27 PM.
it was a wide-ranged day yesterday and the market could just rotate within yday’s range, digesting the move. if the market is rotational i will look to fade support and resistance. if the market is confident, i will look to buy the pullbacks/sell the rallies. the line in the sand is at the 13s. if the market breaks below the 13sa and finds acceptance and confidently pushes lower, then i won’t fade the move and the target would be the 85s (quite a ways down)***. longs are more risky than shorts up here at the bracket extreme + the 5 day balance area high. i won’t be fading momentum off of the 31s. above the 31s, my focus will be on longs and i will not fade the breakout.
if the market gets below 13, it could be considered a failed breakout of the 4 day balance area. this could lead to a test of the other side of the range at the 85s. this also could confirm the idea that the market is getting to long...and needs to correct before it can rally. yday's low was also an unsecure low and i wouldn't expect it to hold on a re-test, but there is still other support in that area.
mba purchase applications at 7.00
consumer price index at 8.30 – imp – high
housing starts at 8.30 – imp – high – medium
eric rosengren speaks at 8.30
dennis lockhart speaks at 9.00
eia petroleum status report at 10.30 – imp – medium
beige book at 2.00 – imp – medium
dennis lockhart speaks at 4.30