buyers were found at yday’s low, displaying bullishness. buyers broke above the line in the sand at 33.5 and ON made a lower high, failing to test yday’s high. because of the failure to test yday’s high, there is pressure on the 33.5-31.75 support zone. below 31.75, expecting yday’s low at 18.75ish, where I’d expect responsive buyers on first test. below yday’s low, I’d expect 15.5-14, where i’d also expect responsive buyers on first test. above 31.75, yday’s high is the target, where I’d expect responsive sellers on first test, then above yday’s high, I’d expect 61, where I’d expect responsive sellers on first test.
33.5 is the line in the sand on the short-term, where I’d expect responsive sellers to be active. above this level, I’m expecting yday’s high, where I’d expect responsive sellers to be active at on first test. below 33.5, target is yday’s low and then 15.5-14, both of which where I’d expect responsive buyers on first test.
Last edited by bojangle; August 23rd, 2011 at 09:20 AM.
don't know how anyone can really trade this market. was in a good trade with 1 scale for 2 pts and letting the other run till yday's low..... went down like 5 pts or so in a few mins then up like 8 pts in 20 seconds. stopped at BE on second contract.
bears really wouldn’t want to see buyers able to hold price above 61
above 61, the target is 06s+, then 57s. above 57s, huge pic is bullish
below 61, potential for pullback to 38s
below 38s, picture turns bearish and there is potential for 18s to break eventually
mba purchase applications at 7.00 - high
durable goods orders at 8.30 – imp – medium
fhfa house price index at 10.00 – low
eia petroleum status report at 10.30 – imp –medium
expecting responsive sellers to be active at 61 today, but ON brings that into question as there was a pull to the 42s ON. if buyers can’t hold price above 50.5 (expecting responsive buyers here on first test), the expectation is is that sellers will take price to the 38.25-40 support zone, where I’d expect responsive buyers to be active. above 61, expecting responsive sellers to be active at 77.5-76.5, then 83.25-84.25, then 91.5-92.5. below 38, sellers are in control and expecting 18s eventually.
if buyers fail to test yday's high, 39s-38s are expected.
attached is a 100k chart with the balance areas and the composite which i use to help define targets/where i'd expect responsive buyers/sellers to be active.
The following user says Thank You to bojangle for this post:
below 63, downside target is 51.5-50.5
below 50.5, eventual downside target is 1118.5 and lower
expecting responsive buyers at 66.75-68.5, 63, 54, 51.5-50.5
expecting responsive sellers at 83-84.5, 91.5-92.5
major upside target is 1206.75
jackson hole symposium – all day – medium
jobless claims at 8.30 – imp - high
bloomberg consumer comfort index at 9.45
eia natural gas report at 10.30 – low
kansas city fed manufacturing index at 11.00
fed balance sheet at 4.30
money supply at 4.30
1 trade that didn't work out. the other trade occurred because i accidentally clicked the "buy" button on my ninja (i have it off non-confirm). this volatility makes it hard as hell to find an entry and hard as hell to manage the trade once i've found an entry.
failing ON at the 77s. expecting responsive buyers on first test of 67-68.5. below 67, downside target is 51.5-50 where I’d expect responsive buyers to be active. also expecting responsive buyers on first test of 54.
expecting responsive buyers at 76.25-77.5. expecting responsive sellers to be active on first test of 92.75-91.25. below 66.
i'm working on trading a plan for a trade - as in no more trades in the middle of nowhere, but only at important zones according to the higher time-frames because i'd rather have larger players trading with me and not be caught in the swings in-between imp zones. this will considerably reduce my trades per day and most likely increase the size of my average winning day. the one winner i had today was traded like this. also, i have to properly set a stop-loss level instead of trying to always predict when the perfect entry is... it's a lot less possible to pin-point the perfect entry in this market ATM.
i think these tweaks to my game will be for the better and will increase the clarity i have during the day and ultimately my confidence in taking the trades.
Last edited by bojangle; August 25th, 2011 at 03:58 PM.
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