I never took into consideration the trend... the piece i was missing. Now i'm getting to the point where a high percentage of the time i'm on the correct side of the market, but i'm lacking confidence to pull the trigger.
I'm using rth profiles over-layed onto a 100k volume candlestick chart for my main big picture and a 405 minute rth candlestick chart for an even bigger picture. during the day i start with the 5k volume chart and then i eventually switch over to the 10k volume chart. I use the 10k volume chart because it makes more sense when using a 100k anchor chart. The profiles are good for the more precise s/r and the price action is good for s/r as well as bias, generating ideas.
For executing on my ideas (hypotheses), i use a combination of the 5 sec, the footprint (6 reversal), and a tape (with a 50+ filter) after stalking the 10k action for an entry within the context of the bigger picture charts.
Reviewing the RTH isn't so bad to find ideas. The harder part comes when reviewing the ON action going into the RTH session to determine bias as well as to determine where i think responsive buyers/sellers are likely to be active. To review the ON action i use a 30 minute chart and i find this to REALLY clear it up.
It works, it really does... I'm able to cut my losers off and allow my winners to run when the market wants to move further than just a rotation. My problem is my fear in executing, the fear of the unknown. I accept that i just can't know what will happen, that all i can do is have an idea, look to the NOW, execute, manage the trade in the NOW, accept the outcome, move on and forget the trade. This is something i haven't ENTIRELY accepted.
Maybe with this, those who are just starting will take away a foundation and go from there. I've realized through experience that it is not likely the technicals that are wrong with one's system if they are logically derived, but it is one's mentality. To take a few losses and not become disheartened to take that next trade that could wipe away all losses and put you into the green. To accept the uncertainty of the market, that all outcomes are out of your control.... and much, much more.
I understand that this foundation has not been proven yet, but i intend to prove it as i improve my trading based off of it. the only way for me to prove it is to post here what i post in my private journal for the day. this might be to much of a commitment for me, but we'll see.
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below 98.75 (ON low), picture has turned bearish and I am expecting 78.75 and lower eventually. expecting responsive buyers to be active at 90-87.75 and then 78.5-80.5 on first test. if sellers fail at 98.75, expecting a test of 1313-1315 where I expect strong responsive selling.
expecting responsive sellers to be active at 77.25 on first test. expecting responsive sellers to be active at 85-84.5. could be bounces at the 61.75, the 57 support levels, but not expecting much as my bias is bearish and my downside target is 52.25, where I expect responsive buyers to be active. short-term has turned bullish above 85. above 85, expecting 04.75 where Id expect responsive sellers to be active. above 04.75, expecting 1315, where Id expect strong responsive sellers to be active.
buyers have seemingly rejected below ydays low at 1270ish and this could make a rotation up to 1285 likely
mba purchase applications at 7.00
challenger job-cut report at 7.30 low adp employment report at 8.15 imp - high
treasury refunding announcement at 9.00
factory orders at 10.00 imp medium
ism non-mfg index at 10.00 imp - high
eia petroleum status report at 10.30 imp medium