chicago PMI at 9.45 – imp – medium
dallas fed mfg survey at 10.30 – imp
farm prices 3.00
the market will likely be opening out of range, below balance, gapping to the downside. i believe the pullback has started and the target is the 52s if price can hold below the 76s. i’m expecting strong responsive buyers to be active at the 52s. the line in the sand for this pullback is at the 1240s. above the 76s, the open settlement at 1281 is the target, then friday’s high at 83.25. the 83s are an area of resistance in the larger timeframes and if sellers aren’t very active there, like they weren’t on friday, that’s a sign of strength and the extended target up is the 1303s where i expect strong responsive sellers to be active.
market is balancing after having gapped lower. has so far failed to test the 60s support (two-day balance area low), but also buyers can't hold price above the open so far. bias is still bearish, though i can't see any potential trade until the high/low are broken. above the high (IBH), target is yday's low where i expect responsive sellers. below today's low (IBL), target is the 52s as long as price can hold below the 60s.
market's current state is balancing and that says a lot.
the importance of determining whether the day will be/is a balanced or imbalanced day:
- a data-point in whether or not to take a breakout trade.
- a data-point in whether or not i should fade this s/r or not.
context detailed in the pre-set plan is also important in making these decisions.
its like today: i was targetting the 52s, but sellers just aren't active and buyers aren't really either.... price finally broke down below the 60s-61s (IBL + two-day balance area low) and it pulled back which i shorted twice. both times i got myself out for less than a point each.... sellers just weren't active. well, look at the day so far (see attached)... the market just isn't moving, it's balancing, the profile shape is basically a D - and that definitely reduced the chances of that BO trade working.
The following user says Thank You to bojangle for this post:
the move down here was very forced and may have been just liquidation. acceptance above 1254.75 and i am expecting the gap at friday’s low at 72.75 to be tested and then higher. above the 54s is yday’s vpoc at 63.75, the open gap at 72.75, nvpoc at 78.25, and the open settlement at 81. below the 54s, i am bearish down to the 42s-40s, where i expect responsive buyers to be active. if sellers break and hold price below the 40s, the BO above the 52s is considered a failure and the 15s become the target below where i expect responsive buyers to be active.
fomc meeting begins
motor vehicle sales – imp – low – all day
icsc-goldman store sales at 7.45
redbook at 8.55
ism mfg index at 10.00 – low
construction spending at 10.00 – imp – low
buyers need to be able to hold price above the 37s to gain control in the short-term. going to be a huge gap down. not looking to fade to the long side except for down at the 85s. above the 16s, the 37s are my target. below the 16s, the 08s, then 90s, then 85s are my targets. below the 85s, the bracket breakout is considered a failure and sellers have gained control with the extended target at the 1068s.