i've noticed that i'll set a plan and rarely follow it. then i'll become lost. the point of the plan is to be my road-map. what has happened in relation to what i stated were my bias in my plan? i am finding this is very, very important.
intraday, i'm all over the place, my mind becomes cluttered and it's hard to make a decisive act. the road-map is supposed to be used to reduce brain-chatter... reduce stress and fear.
gonna start to add a review and then a big picture analysis at night.
market opened above the prior day’s settle and sellers were active. sellers took price below yday’s rally high, down to fill the ON settlement-gap, through yday’s poor low, then within 1 pt of the 15s gap, buyers came in and pushed price back above the line in the sand at the 21s. sellers then couldn’t hold price below the 21s and the HOD was tested and broken through.
the two balance areas on the daily seem to be merging, creating a larger balance area (52s-85s). the POC is at the 08s. today was a hammer, with swift rejection at the lows which coincides with where my line in the sand was. i’m expecting buyers to be active now, and if they don’t show up at the last-stand level at the 30s, i’m expecting a lot lower prices.
gdp at 8.30 – imp – high
jobless claims at 8.30 – imp – high
bloomberg consumer comfort index at 9.45
pending home sales index at 10.00 – imp - high
eia natural gas report at 10.30 – low
kansas city fed manufacturing index at 11.00
fed balance sheet at 4.30
money supply at 4.30
big gap up from yday. price is now above the significant long-term line in the sand at the 52s, above which my targets are the 1303s and then the 1340s. as long as price remains above yday’s spike base at 1240, i’m bullish. i'm expecting rotations at each support zone down to here. below the 40s, i’d consider the break-out to be a failure and the bottom of the range at the 15s is my target…which will likely lead to even lower prices with the 08s, 90s, 85s being tested (but not today). i’m not looking to fade the upside unless sellers are active at the open and want to test the 52s or fill the gap at 1242. below the 52s, i am expecting the 42s to be tested. also, i expect buying to shut-off at the 1298-1303s area where i expect sellers to be active.
knew my plan, wasn't confused. i know what i'm expecting and i know what it means in the context of my plan.
something a trader posted in response to a post i made in another place:
"I think this structured way of planning out scenarios and what each thing the market does could mean under each scenario is the best way for developing traders to learn. And also the best way to be prepared to make real money when the pressure is on in the heat of the battle."
Last edited by bojangle; October 27th, 2011 at 03:16 PM.
personal income and outlays at 8.30 – imp – low
employment cost index at 8.30 – imp – medium
consumer sentiment at 9.55 – imp – medium
the 82s-84s are a breakdown level from the weekly. yday’s the market swiftly rejected above this area and closed below it. as long as price holds below the 80s-82s, my bias is bearish. i’m expecting rotations at the support zones, but my ultimate target is the 52s where i expect strong responsive buying on first test. above the 80s-82s, my target is the 1303s, where i expect strong response sellers on first test. the market will be opening several points below the prior day’s settlement, so above the 74s, 82.75 may be the target. the line in the sand for the pullback is at 1240.
The following user says Thank You to bojangle for this post:
the plan is based on the market's structure. this plan lays out the context of the current state of the market to me. how the day trades over this framework is a continuation of the story from the time i laid the plan out. what the market does in relation to my expectations are data-points.
my expectations don't have to happen, but they are what i believe will happen if a scenario plays out. my expectations can become more accurate with experience.
my plan aids me in deciphering what something happening and not happening means. it brings meaning into my trading and therefore clarity to my mind.
i trade at my pre-define areas so that i can control the variables i can control: my mind (sanity), my risk (capital), my analysis (my bias). these three things enable me to build confidence/emotional capital.
market is in a long-term up-trend and continuation is in progress. the market broke above the 52s, an important line in the sand, after having broken out of the larger bracket from the 1068s-1220s... a good sign of strength. the targets up are the 1303s, then the 1340s, then higher. below the 1240s short-term line in the sand, the 1217s are the target. a longer-term line in the sand for the breakout above the 1220s is the 85s. below the 85s, the breakout above the high of the larger bracket (1220s) from the past few months is considered a failure and the 1110s, then the 1068s are the targets below.
Last edited by bojangle; October 30th, 2011 at 08:02 PM.
still at the 83s resistance area which can be seen via the weekly. the 83s is a poor high and i am not expecting sellers to be active there as they weren’t significantly active there on friday. above the 83s, the eventual target is the 1303s where i expect responsive sellers to be active. in-between the 76s and the 83s, my bias is neutral given the lack of selling at the 83s and the fact that the market has been moving up swiftly... i am more inclined to the upside. below the 76s, i am expecting the 72s (friday’s low) to break and given that today was an inside day, fading the break is not a good idea (same if friday’s high is broken above). my extended target below the 76s is the 52s, where i’d expect strong responsive buyers to be active given the bullish context laid out in the big picture analysis above. the line in the sand for the pullback expected to start below the 76s is at 1240s. below the 1240s, the breakout above the 1252s is considered a failure, buyers will have shown weakness and the 1217s are the target down with 1285s being the extended target down if buyers don't defend the 1217s.