the HOD is in an area of resistance in the larger TF. OTFing higher has broken and it's not looking as confident anymore. not looking to fade to the long-side at the 46s. confident breaks lower, i'll short the pullbacks. below 46s is the 39s (single prints), then the 35s (LOD+IBL). unconfident moves down, away from acceptance (now at the 48s), i'll look to get long. the HOD is more so there because of exhaustion and not swift rejection....could explore higher still... will look for shorts around 52s... low confidence and forcing action up to this point (what's happening in the moment is imp though).
icsc-goldman store sales at 7.45
redbook at 8.55
s&p case shiller HPI at 9.00 – imp – medium
consumer confidence at 10.00 – imp – high
fhfa house price index at 10.00 – low
richmond fed manufacturing index at 10.00 – low
state street investor confidence index at 10.00
this whole breakout move is suspect as it has been moving up on lower and lower volume (two days in a row with lower, declining volume). today’s high was at the 52s, a key area from the larger timeframes. there wasn’t much of a selling reaction here and today’s high was a poor high, so the auction above does not appear to be done. i’d think the prior balance area high+breakout area at the 26s will be re-visited eventually. i’m using the 21s as a line in the sand for a pullback, indicating a failed BO if acceptance is found below here. below that, i’m targeting the 08s, then the 90s, then the 85s.
above the 52s, bias is bullish again in a higher timeframe and the target is the 1340s eventually, though the 1302s is the vpoc of the range we’ll be in above the 1252s. so, the defence i saw at the 52s def wasn’t very strong and since today’s high is unsecured, is poor, i’d expect higher prices to come, though the market may first pull-back to test the forced action below to the 26s (line in sand at 21s). this lower volume BO really has me doubting a continuation up until we revisit the BO area at the 26s.
above the 21s, the big picture is saying up
below the 21s, the big pic is saying down
on confident moves below the 44s, could be the start of the pullback to the 35s, then possibly the 26s?
like in my life, context means everything to me. it’s like living daily, accomplishing objectives that lead to my larger goals being accomplished. living with my plan in mind, always doing things in context of the long-term. keeps me focused and keeps life simple. as steve jobs said: "Focus and simplicity…once you get there, you can move mountains."
Last edited by bojangle; October 24th, 2011 at 11:48 PM.
itís likely that the market will open in range, in balance. if thatís the case, iíll be looking to fade s/r. below the 45s, iíll be thinking the market is pulling back, correcting the action below and iíll be expecting the 35s eventually where i expect responsive buyers to be active. below the 35s, iím expecting a test of the 26s where iíll be expecting responsive buyers to be active. my line in the sand is at the 21s. above the 45s, have to keep in mind that the upside auction hasnít shown signs of being complete.
mba purchase applications at 7.00
durable goods orders at 8.30 Ė imp - high
new home sales at 10.00 Ė imp - high
eia petroleum status report at 10.30 Ė imp Ė medium
market is coming off of the 52s, an important level of resistance. the day bounced off of my line in the sand at the 21s. the breakout is still considered valid, but acceptance below the 21s will change my bias to bearish as the BO will be considered a failure. then the 1209s, then 1190s, the 1185s are the targets. the line in the sand for the larger term, the intermediate term, is at 1186. below 1186, sellers are considered to have control (below the balance area low + bracketís vpoc) and continuation with the intermediate down-trend is expected with downside targets at 1108, 1097, 1068. thatís the downside scenario. if the 21s hold, the bias is still bullish, but buyers need to push and hold prices above todayís rally-high+poc area at the 36s for upside further upside. then my target is 1252s and higher.
likely to open in range, in balance. iíll look to fade s/r on both sides, with a focus on the longs above the VAL at the 31s. above 37, expecting mondayís value to be broken into (given what the market is coming off of from the downside), mondayís settlement at 47 to be tested, then the 52s tested. above the 52s, i`m not looking to fade the movements up. below yday`s VAL is ydayís settlement at 24.5, which is a target for the downside. ydayís low is a poor low, right at my line in the sand for the pullback from the 52s. below ydayís VAL, iíd think the market will likely break below the 21s, given the lack of a strong response from buyers yday in this area. below the 21s, my bias is bearish and i expect the gap at the 15s to be filled, then the balance area vpoc to be tested, then the 90s and 85s (line in sand for longer-term) (unlikely for today).
there's the distance between yday's close and today's open... this is considered forced action. the question is, will buyers step in before it's filled? if it's filled, my bias bearish as price will be below the VAL + spike base.