balanced session, poor high and poor low. value/acceptance placed about the same as yday. trading extremes, though i am expecting one side to break eventually. will look for shorts around ON high, yday's high, then at 31s. will look for longs at 13s. in-between is chop zone to me.... no edge.
missed the long at the 15s, took the short at the 24s (got 2 scales, both 2 pts-ish cause i thought selling was done...was wrong).
no trade there... sellers just slammed the auction right through the 13s, my line in the sand. now i am waiting for a long at 03s (possibly - depends on confidence), and a potential short at 15s (failure to break into value).
Last edited by bojangle; October 19th, 2011 at 02:26 PM.
jobless claims at 8.30 – imp – high
bloomberg consumer comfort index at 9.45
exisitng home sales at 10.00 – imp – high
philadelphia fed survey at 10.00 – imp - high
leading indicators at 10.00
james bullard speaks 10.15
eia natural gas report at 10.30 – low
dennis lockhart speaks at 12.00
sandra pianalto speaks at 12.50
fed balance sheet at 4.30
money supply at 4.30
daniel tarullo speaks at 6.00 – low
narayana kocherlakota speaks at 8.00 – medium
in the short-term timeframe, the auction could be done to the upside. since the auction failed to breakout of the 4 day balance area, and yday couldn’t test tuesday’s high nor really challenge it’s selling tail, and the action above 1215 looks relatively complete, and since we were at the high of the larger bracket, i think longs have more risk than shorts (kept in mind, but longs may still be good trades today). my target to the downside is 85.5 where i expect responsive buyers to be active. the line in the sand is 1215, where i am expecting responsive sellers to be active. if we open in range, which is likely, i will be fading s/r. yesterday was also an inside day, so i will not be fading a break above/below the high/low.
we're in an uptrend and a historical range was rejected, maybe ending the swing, creating a HL and now maybe we'll auction higher. also, in the daily, there is no excess yet above us so the auction upwards may not be done yet... i think the 1097 area is the line in the sand for a pullback if we break below the 85.5 balance area low (have to remember that the very-short-term has excess-ish at the top).
Last edited by bojangle; October 20th, 2011 at 09:23 AM.
narayana kocherlakota speaks at 1.00 – medium
richard fisher speaks at 1.20 – medium
janet yellen speaks at 3.00 – medium
likely to open above range, out of balance as well as above the line in the sand at the 1215s. this will also be a gap-up which makes yday look like excess. i said before that the auction doesn’t look done on the daily timeframe to the upside, so this gap-up could lead to a large move today. a failure to break into yday’s range will have my bias bullish and wednesday’s high was a poor high so i am expecting the 31s to be tested today if initiative buyers are active… i will not be looking to fade the gap-up if it continues higher with confidence. below the 1215s, back into yday’s range, i’ll be looking to fade s/r and my bias will mainly be bearish with a downside target of the 85s.
Last edited by bojangle; October 21st, 2011 at 09:19 AM.
focusing on longs worked... but there were barely any opportunities to actually get long.... maybe a couple, but one didn't work for much... using the reference levels i had.
it was a strange day and the market shot up as expected, but then buying shut-off and the sellers took over to make a new LOD. the selling then shut-off and buyers then took price back up to the HOD... lol
clarity in trading has always been a HUGE, HUGE issue for me and i don't think i'm alone. my problem usually is is that i get lost in the short-term. i think the best way to filter out all of the friggin' noise in the market is by constructing a plan as a guideline for the day, watching a larger interval of price intraday, and then using a smaller interval chart for entry. a problem i encounter is how painful it is to be "missing out." well, these trades within the interval i watch to keep my mind clear aren't exactly the highest probability trades... they're just plentiful.
i've attached a 30 min chart with the opportunities that presented themselves in the 30 min interval today. only a couple...
breaking out of the balance area as well as the large bracket. on friday value was placed higher. the attempted direction was nowhere and the volume was significantly less. the auction put in a poor high and low, with some forcing action later in the day at the 27s and 24s. my bias is bullish above the 26s. below the 26s i'd expect the gap at the 15s to be filled and maybe a test of the 08s (balance area vpoc). since the breakout on friday was on low volume, i'd want to see buyers active at the 15s and 08s or else the targets become the 90s (bracket vpoc) and the 85s (balance area low). above the 26s, i will not be fading confident moves upwards and i'm expecting the 52s eventually which is where i'd expect responsive sellers on first test.
note on the volume profile:
all of those lvns and hvns marking all those minor ranges are so friggin' meaningless... they represent so little volume and are really only important if larger price intervals reacted there. these small ranges in the profiles aren't being watched by the larger traders...
chicago fed national activity index at 8.30 fomc member dudley speaks at 8.45 – low
richard fisher speaks at 9.00
fomc member dudley speaks at 1.00 – low
if the market gaps up, i’ll be judging the confidence to determine if we’ll continue up or fill the gap at 35.75 and test friday’s settle at 35. if sellers are still active at friday's high, ON inventory may be corrected and the 26s tested. my bias is bullish above friday’s pullback-low+value area low+ON low. i’ll be looking for a long at this area. if acceptance can be found above friday’s high, i’d expect the 52s to be tested where i’ll be looking for responsive sellers to be active on first test. below the 26s, i’m expecting the 15s gap to be filled and i may be a responsive buyer here… but friday’s breakout was on a lower relative volume and i’d want to see signs of sellers becoming exhausted and buyers becoming more active for the long. if sellers are still active at these lower prices, i’d consider the BO a failed breakout and the 90s, then the 85s becomes the target.