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Break Even Trader
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Created: by Silver Dragon Attachments:17

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Break Even Trader

  #21 (permalink)
Elite Member
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Futures Broker
Favorite Futures: AUD
 
Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,597 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 3,860 given, 3,318 received

Automated trade update

Closed position ahead of retail sales report. Out at 1.4499. +50 pips. Protecting profits.

Shutting down strategy for the rest of the week and focusing on business. Will start up again on Sunday.

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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  #22 (permalink)
Elite Member
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,597 since Feb 2011
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Greetings all. Hope everyone is doing well.

During my time off I have had some time to reflect on my automated trading system. I have had success with it and started thinking about why it works while all the other systems I built have failed. I believe it comes down to focusing on a single "event". Most systems builders try to catch every single move. This is nearly impossible. I liken this to picking winning lottery numbers for the powerball or mega millions; it can be done but your chances are very slim.

On the other hand if the focus of the system is to capture a "event", specifically a repeatable event which only occurs once a hour or even once a day, depending on your time frame, then you can build the code around it to capture the event and add in indicators to filter out false positives.

Below are the steps I am going to follow to test this theory.
  1. Decide on a chart and time frame: Example: 5 minute chart
  2. Find a repeatable event. Example: a reversal. There is more to this than putting indicators on a chart. I think the answer is partly in the bars on the chart not just in a simple indicator crossing. The automated system that I am using now relies on both indicators and price action. I believe this is what makes it successful.
  3. Determine if there is a viable exit strategy. This is a tough one. How do you determine if a strategy will be successful without testing it with real trades? I think it is more of a visual at this point; look at it and ask if I enter here where can I get out with a profit?
  4. Create a simple strategy to identify the "event". Example: color the bars blue where the event occurs. I am going to keep this simple. I will attempt to use the NT7 wizard to write the base code and then unlock the code and add the more complicated stuff later
  5. Analyze the results. This will involve looking at the charts and all the possible entry points to make sure the strategy is capturing what is suppose to. This can be boring a tedious scrolling through a years worth of data but it is necessary to capture different market conditions.
  6. Add indicators to filter out the false positives. Example: ignore entry when Stochastic is above 80
  7. Setup trades with live data. Backtesting is ok, but watching the strategy in action can give more insight how it will work in the real world.
After all this is done I should have a pretty good idea if I have hit the mark. If not then it is back to the drawing board

SD

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.

Last edited by Silver Dragon; April 20th, 2011 at 12:55 AM.
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  #23 (permalink)
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Automated Trade 4-20-11


Fast moving market last night. Trade was opened and closed before I got out of bed.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


I added some code to my strategy a couple of weeks ago to allow only one trade per day. It failed. A second trade was entered. I closed it out +9 pips to keep with the strategy.


Overall +92 pips
+ 83 first trade
+ 9 second trade.


SD

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
Attached Thumbnails
Break Even Trader-automated-chart-4-20-11.png   Break Even Trader-profit-loss-4-20-11.png  
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  #24 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Milestone

Reached a milestone of sorts today; I had to look to see what my account balance was. This is huge for me. I used to be obsessed with it. I could tell you on any given day what it was down to the penny.

On reflection I realized: Its not about the money, it is about the trade. Money is the byproduct of the trade. Make a good trade and the money will follow. Words to trade by...

SD

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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  #25 (permalink)
Breathe the body deep.
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Yes, learn to drop all ideas of money from your mind. Your account is just numbers. The more you're able to that the easier it will be.

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  #26 (permalink)
Live Your Bliss
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Silver Dragon View Post
Reached a milestone of sorts today; I had to look to see what my account balance was. This is huge for me. I used to be obsessed with it. I could tell you on any given day what it was down to the penny.

On reflection I realized: Its not about the money, it is about the trade. Money is the byproduct of the trade. Make a good trade and the money will follow. Words to trade by...

SD

Doesn't it feel so much better to focus just on trading well?

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
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  #27 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Posts: 1,597 since Feb 2011
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Trankuility View Post
Yes, learn to drop all ideas of money from your mind. Your account is just numbers. The more you're able to that the easier it will be.


Anagami View Post
Doesn't it feel so much better to focus just on trading well?

Agreed on both counts. I have been really focusing on the charts and price action of late. I find myself trying to figure out the mechaincs of the trade or whats going to happen next instead of how much money I have made or lost. For the first time in my trading career I am truely happy with what I am doing.

SD

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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  #28 (permalink)
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Posts: 1,597 since Feb 2011
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My life has been crazy over the past few weeks. Trying to get back to normalcy. Hope to be posting updates soon.

SD

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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  #29 (permalink)
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Trade 5-2-11

Good to back trading!!!!

See attached chart with notes.

I managed to control my emotions tonight and did not jump the gun. I really wanted to enter the trade @ 1.4788 because I felt it was going down. The key word in the prior sentence is "felt". I have lost more money this way. Instead I waited for the support break for confirmation and then entered the trade.

SD

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
Attached Thumbnails
Break Even Trader-trade-5-2-11.png   Break Even Trader-profit-loss-05-02-11.png  
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  #30 (permalink)
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CCI 20 and Trendline Breaks


Thought I would share: I noticed a while back that the CCI-20 crossing zero on 5 Range chart generally corresponds with trend line break. See attached chart.

SD

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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Break Even Trader-cci20-trend-line-breaks.png  
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