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Simple Trendline Bounce


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Simple Trendline Bounce

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  #1 (permalink)
 babypowder 
Brooklyn, NY
 
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Hey futures.io (formerly BMT) fam,

Inspired by AR01, Eric J and many others. hopefully I can post frequently. I like to keep track of a simple method (trendline bounce/break). For those full-time workers higher time frames would be best. I choose 240 mins and 4 markets to start but can change. (Varies from time to time)
The further back the trendline the better also the reactions of candles to the trendline i.e hammer/doji/shooting star also best.

Pros: - great risk/reward (stop place close to TL/ target can be previous LL/HH *discretionary)
- plain simple

Cons: - TL itself, you will redraw lines many times. Tip- chose TL that has held before/start TL in previous 2 swings with the immediate trend.

............................................................................................................................................................................
6E- Here is a zoomed out pic with TL drawn. 6E far - babypowder's library
6E- Here is a closer look. If price approaches the TL again (circled), you should be aggressive with your profit taking as a HH was not made, wedge might cont. to form and Japan news. Or if trading 2 cars hold 1 for a wedge break with trend cont. 6e - babypowder's library

................................................................................................................................................................................
CL- zoomed out with TL's drawn. CL - babypowder's library
CL- closer look. Major up TL in tacked, steep short term down trend holding. You can jump on whatever gives 1st, enter on major TL bounce or break of short term TL both to the upside. Cl close - babypowder's library

................................................................................................................................................................................
ES- zoomed out with TLs drawn. TL broken retracement in bigger TF. ES - babypowder's library
ES- close up. Major up TL not looking right in addition a wedge was forming and broke down, drew a short term TL potential bounce play since price blew pass the previous HL swing support. 2011-03-16_1822 - babypowder's library

.....................................................................................................................................................................................
SI-zoomed out with TLs drawn. Major up TL broken may see retracement at previous swing (horizontal line). 2011-03-16_1829 - babypowder's library
SI- close up. Short term down TL, wait for price to break that long hammer 1st before entering short bounce play. 2011-03-16_1838 - babypowder's library

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  #3 (permalink)
 AR01 
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Good Luck.

It took me a while to get comfortable posting but it has been worth it.

Andrew

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  #4 (permalink)
 josh 
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Thanks for the pics babypowder-- (you may want to remove vertical/horizontal and data session lines from your charts with such a large time frame as the trendlines aren't as easily visible to the eyes! Thanks and I like the idea of longer TF trading in theory.

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 babypowder 
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SI - no LL made so TL bounce play is off. 2011-03-17_2238 - babypowder's library
CL- to late on TL bounce play left without us. 2011-03-17_2301 - babypowder's library
6E- to late on TL bounce play. 2011-03-17_2303 - babypowder's library
ES - *The only filled @ TL bounce. Stop placed 1 tick above last pullback (look at the candlesticks tail) 2011-03-17_2305 - babypowder's library
......................................................................................................................................................................
Josh will clear charts on next post.

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 babypowder 
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Interesting algofutures.com has sell signals @ this area will see how it plays out. (Currently ES trade)

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 babypowder 
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ES results on short bounce play -562.50 (2 contracts).

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 Eric j 
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Nice thread BP ! We must be channelling each other subconciously since Ive been paying closer attention to tls lately . I found the tls useful as a SR level with the trend , like a flag . Futures you got the benefit of volume and volume drying up as price reaches the tl is a really stong signal .

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  #9 (permalink)
 babypowder 
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CL- Classic head and shoulders forming in current channel, I will play this if everything lines up until the major TL (bottom channel). Then if tagged can be a potential bull bounce play going back up (top of channel). 2011-03-20_1603 - babypowder's library
Additional info on H&S @ Head and Shoulders Price Pattern
...................................................................................................................................................................................
SI- Bullish flag is forming, and Brach Zone .62/,786 retracement (rectangle). I would only play long bounce play off of bottom flag TL, if it comes back down, I might have missed it. 2011-03-20_1621 - babypowder's library
**A definite read **Additional info on Brach Zone @ Brach Zone Setup- .62/,786 retracement
...................................................................................................................................................................................
ES- Short term TL break, I am looking for a retest of this TL which also lines up with the Brach Zone .62/786 retracement area for a long bounce play. 2011-03-20_1628 - babypowder's library
..................................................................................................................................................................................
6E- Zoomed out we see a bottleneck/ flag forming. 2011-03-20_1633 - babypowder's library
6E- Zoomed in I would play a break not bounce of either lines. Resistance @ 11/7 last high or TL as support we will wait and see. 2011-03-20_1635 - babypowder's library The way the candles are progressively forming (short steady candles not long steep slope candle) tells me that resistance @ 4250 area will likely hold. The idea behind this is if a car is driving 100m/hr speeds to a brick wall it will break through vs. a 20m/hr speed car in which the wall will likely hold. Again this is not alway the case. We will see.

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 babypowder 
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Thanks EJ,
After trial and errors i found that TL will give you better entries and most importantly were I want my stops.

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