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Simple Trendline Bounce
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Created: by babypowder Attachments:3

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Simple Trendline Bounce

  #21 (permalink)
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I'm back

Only active trade I have is for the CL. Attached are the breakdown from 1440 & 240.

1440- Nice TL bounce candle reaction, lets see if it takes off. 2011-04-12_2219 - babypowder's library
240min- Fine tune entry on reversal/IB of trendline bounce from daily chart. 2011-04-12_2219 - babypowder's library

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  #22 (permalink)
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Update

CL- long bounce play is working, it should hit the 1st target then i will tail the 2nd target.
240 2011-04-15_0048 - babypowder's library
1440 2011-04-15_0053 - babypowder's library


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  #23 (permalink)
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Granted I'm not familiar with the details of your strategy, but your stops look pretty hardcore, are you sure you would be able to stomach that in live trading? I'd be a serious wreck.

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  #24 (permalink)
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The stops would be stomach churning but I think the principles are dead on . That is , CL is a good place to get clobbered by risk but its a good market to hone your SR and trendline skills . Thats why I stick to forex since I can apply my edge (basically what BP is doing here) and not go broke - and Im glad I did it that way to trade live .

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  #25 (permalink)
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Vegas,
I know what you mean but this definitely can be broken down to lower time frames (less risk) and still apply the same principals.
.........................................................................................................................................................................
FYI, I always wanted to apply volume to my analysis injunction with price. This newsletter piece got my interest on how to apply volume. Check it out.

Here's a quick summary of how I use this sudden increase in volume...
  • A large increase in volume which initiates a bullish price move, will identify an area of potential support should price return to this area. (initiating volume)
  • A large increase in volume which initiates a bearish price move, will identify an area of potential resistance should price return to this area. (initiating volume)
  • A large increase in volume which stops a bullish price move, will identify an area of potential resistance should price return to this area (stopping volume)
  • A large increase in volume which stops a bearish price move, will identify an area of potential support should price return to this area (stopping volume)
Finding these occurrences of initiating or stopping volume is simply a case of scanning the volume below the price chart. I overlay my volume with an EMA(9). A sudden spike from average volume levels to around twice the average... gets my attention.

You should recognise these scenarios most often at key price action areas. For example, initiating volume on a successful breakout, as breakout traders pile in to the market and those trying to fade the move scramble to get out. And stopping volume at the end of a climactic move.

You'll note that all four rules relate to the potential for the area to provide support or resistance, at some time in the future should price ever return there. For the more experienced trader, you may also be able to take advantage of stopping volume right now, through joining the orderflow which helps stop the price move, or joining it as the failure to continue is confirmed. You'll recognise these occurrences at a test or breakout failure of a support or resistance level. I rarely join initiating volume right now... as that would entail chasing price... usually a big NO in my book.

Let's look at some examples from yesterday's Euro chart, 13th April 2011.


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In the above example we have the 5 min chart on the LHS and the 1 min on the RHS, as if using the 5 min as the trading timeframe and the 1 min to obtain finer detail and time entry and exit (YTC PAT style).

Point A shows a sudden increase in volume as candle B collapses into the support abeam C. Where did this volume occur though - did it come in at the top of candle B as it broke lower (initiating volume) or towards the end as it hit support (stopping volume)? The one minute chart shows that the greatest volume occurred at the lows (candle D) indicating that this volume consisted of a lot of buying at support (stopping volume).

The five minute candle B closed at point E on the one minute chart.

Our rule is that a large increase in volume which stops a bearish price move will indentify an area of potential support should price return to this area.

This retest occurs one minute later as price moves down to point F. Note the low volume associated with the retest at F, despite the fact that price did break to new lows. If in fact the market sentiment was bearish, then this break lower should have brought in more selling and continued lower. It didn't do any such thing. The market is finding support at the lows of F, offering an entry long at G as the retest fails.

The next example will require separate charts. We'll first display the 5 min chart to identify the area of interest.

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The 1.4500 level was on our radar as potential resistance due to being (a) the prior day's high, (b) earlier session resistance, and of course there's no need to mention it's a massive round number.

The area of interest is within the oval, including the initial test H and then retest I. The following one minute chart zooms in on our area of interest.

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Note this time that the volume expansion is more visible on the one minute timeframe. The highs at H occurred with significant stopping volume J. A nice short was available on failure below candle H.

However... due to the significant increase in volume, this level will now be considered as an even greater source of potential resistance, should price once again return here. A large number of traders chose to trade in this region. Some will be trapped long, praying for their drawdown to provide a breakeven exit if price gets back to the resistance area. Others, who missed the initial move will be waiting patiently for a retest, and a second opportunity to enter short.

This is an area of emotion, in which we expect increased bearish orderflow should price retest the area, as per our rule: A large increase in volume which stops a bullish price move, will identify an area of potential resistance should price return to this area (stopping volume)

Note the retest at I, also offered more stopping volume. Entry short, whether through anticipation or a pattern based entry trigger, offered significant opportunity as point's H and I provided the high of the day.

Look through your own charts to find similar examples. Identify sudden increases in volume. Consider the context within which that is occurring. Consider how this will affect the feelings of other traders - those profiting, those taking a loss, those who missed the move and those who hold on desperately in drawdown hoping, wishing and praying for a chance to get out at breakeven. And then watch to see how these feelings impact upon their decision making, and upon orderflow, should price later return to the area.

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So that's it... nice and simple.

But it's not yet complete.

That is the only volume pattern which I consistently take note of at the moment. I expect there will be more in future, as I grow as a trader. Stay tuned for continuation... (one day).

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  #26 (permalink)
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The basis for trend trading on daily bars is sound. The attached spreadsheet is one I did from June 2006 until Jan 2007. I was recovering from the "quality" time I spent at the Heart Center and they took my computer away during the day (some BS about stress... yadda,yadda,yadda ... you know how those cardiologist can be sometimes... )

At the end of the day, I would enter the price into the spreadsheet of any instrument that gave an entry signal for that day. Once a day at the end of the day, I would check all the positions and close the ones that gave an exit signal and open any new ones that gave an entry signal. (Only one order per direction).

I thought this might be of interest.

EOD Commodities v1.xls

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TMFT,
This is using your CCI V-shape setup?

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1st target

CL- 1st target filled +3,010. Will trail stop accordingly for second target (previous high). 2011-04-16_1740 - babypowder's library
.............................................................................................................................................................................
6E- 240min following a really nice channel but res. is ahead from 1/13/2010 LH swing.
LH (1/2010) screen - 2011-04-16_1751 - babypowder's library
Channel screen - 2011-04-16_1756 - babypowder's library

6E TL possible bounce play- buy order set on double IB R:R really good here 20 tick stop under 1st IB. 2011-04-16_1812 - babypowder's library

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babypowder View Post
TMFT,
This is using your CCI V-shape setup?


Basically, yes . It worked out very similar to what ya'll are talking about.

The problem I had with it is the same that others have mentioned, the huge stops required. Especially in the energies.

hmmm... maybe the doctors had a point....

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  #30 (permalink)
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6E


6E Double IB/bounce play is off, it gaped down. 2011-04-17_1923 - babypowder's library

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