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jstnbrg's log

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  #1 (permalink)
 jstnbrg 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader, TT, InvestorRT
Broker: Advantage Futures, Ninja/TT and InvestorRT/IQFeed.
Trading: Treasury futures
 
Posts: 302 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 193 given, 858 received

This will be a log of my P/L. I'm currently trading in sim. Commissions are estimated, as my FCM uses a sliding scale, but except for products that a CBOT Associate Member (which I am) is eligible to trade at member rates, total round trip commissions should be about $5/trade. Size is currently l lot for qm, 6e, 6j, zb, zs, zw. 2 lots for zn, zc, ym, es. 3 lots for zf. maybe 2 lots for ng. I will announce if I add other instruments.

Methodology is fading pullbacks in trending markets. Two basic setups define trending markets. One of these setups is well known, the other a little less so but hardly proprietary to me. I prefer not to discuss them. I trade using 3 minute bars. Experimental trades using alternate methodology will be traded in a second sim account and not counted unless I have previously announced that I am adding to the methodologies I use. I would like to find a good way of fading moves in lower volatility or non-trending markets, but so far I have not found anything usable. I think it is important to avoid running up commissions.

I will try to avoid having highly correlated instruments on at the same time, at least in the direction of their correlation (so for example I would avoid being short 6j and zn at the same time). I probably will not often simultaneously trade more than three instruments.

My minimum goal for winning days is about $400, the point where I stop trading due to sucking is a little over $600 or three consecutive losers even if I'm down less than that. My profit goal per trade is a little over $300, my maximum loss a little over $200. Once I have $200 in the trade, I move my stop to break even on the theory that giving back that much profit is the same as losing that amount. (In the future I might go to a straight tick for tick trailing stop). On days where I have multiple trades that are working, once I have met my minimum goal for winning days, I will become much more aggressive about moving my stops to break even. I will accept a slightly smaller daily profit on Fridays for two reasons: the first is that in my experience trade gets dicey after about 11:00 am CST on Friday and the second is that I hate the bitter taste of ending the week a on a losing note. In my 25 years as a professional trader, I have almost always regretted being greedy on Friday. It's my oldest rule. The "three losing trades" rule is my second oldest rule.

I also have rules for when I go live and for when I increase my size, but I will not discuss those rules to keep the dollar amount of my P/L private. At some point after I have gone live, assuming I get the chance to do so, I will announce that I have been live, but not on what date I started. That being said, I have said elsewhere on this forum that it is critical to have a plan to increase your size and to follow that plan for as long as the liquidity of the markets you trade allows. Size is the key to making substantial money in this business, and the point of this business is to make substantial money.

I don't anticipate adding a lot of commentary to my log unless I really screw up my discipline. The main reason I'm doing this diary is to try to help answer the question in the thread " Ten-thousand in Education and still not profitable!", both for myself and for other subscribers to that thread.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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  #3 (permalink)
 jstnbrg 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader, TT, InvestorRT
Broker: Advantage Futures, Ninja/TT and InvestorRT/IQFeed.
Trading: Treasury futures
 
Posts: 302 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 193 given, 858 received


3/15/2011 results attached

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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 jstnbrg 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader, TT, InvestorRT
Broker: Advantage Futures, Ninja/TT and InvestorRT/IQFeed.
Trading: Treasury futures
 
Posts: 302 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 193 given, 858 received

Computer bluescreened while in YM and ZN trades, afterwords NT sim wouldn't fill resting orders. Exit prices on image 3_16_11 results are where fills would have been if orders had been submitted to the exchange. Exit prices on image cum. results are where NT7 thinks the orders were filled. NT's YM fill was worse than it should have been and NT's ZN fill was better.

After I exited the trades, I spent the rest of the day chkdsk ing my hard drives. A pity, because it looks like there were other opportunities.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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  #5 (permalink)
 zikonc 
san ramon
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninja
Broker: zen
Trading: es, 6e
 
Posts: 136 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 98 given, 76 received


jstnbrg View Post
...... the point where I stop trading due to sucking is a little over $600 or three consecutive losers even if I'm down less than that.

Hi......I was wondering what you saw in the market when you entered it after 3 bad trades in a row........thanks

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  #6 (permalink)
 jstnbrg 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader, TT, InvestorRT
Broker: Advantage Futures, Ninja/TT and InvestorRT/IQFeed.
Trading: Treasury futures
 
Posts: 302 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 193 given, 858 received


zikonc View Post
Hi......I was wondering what you saw in the market when you entered it after 3 bad trades in a row........thanks

I didn't. My first trade was 6j, that was a loser. I had on ym and zn at the same time, ym shows as 2 trades because the 2 contracts were filled separately but it was a 2 lot. I got stopped out of that, but not zn. I made money on zn. I would have kept trading except for the computer problems.

I think what I may wind up liking most about journaling publicly is that it will keep me honest. It's one thing to break a rule privately, totally another to expose it in public. Kind of like trading size in the pit, where everyone can see you. (Even though it's been eight years since I traded in a pit, I still dream about it. I'm often on a stage, with a big gallery. That's what it felt like.)

If I made a mistake, it was that I two correlated contracts on at the same time. I wasn't paying enough attention to realize they were correlated until after I had them on. In a way it's a good thing I didn't get out of one of them, because if I had it would have been ZN. The only reason I kept it is I thought the floor pivot, which was, I think, at 20, would be good support. It was bad luck I was stopped out of ym, the trade was huge shortly after. Rules is rules.

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 zikonc 
san ramon
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninja
Broker: zen
Trading: es, 6e
 
Posts: 136 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 98 given, 76 received


jstnbrg View Post
I didn't. My first trade was 6j, that was a loser. I had on ym and zn at the same time, ym shows as 2 trades because the 2 contracts were filled separately but it was a 2 lot. I got stopped out of that, but not zn. I made money on zn. I would have kept trading except for the computer problems.

I think what I may wind up liking most about journaling publicly is that it will keep me honest. It's one thing to break a rule privately, totally another to expose it in public. Kind of like trading size in the pit, where everyone can see you. (Even though it's been eight years since I traded in a pit, I still dream about it. I'm often on a stage, with a big gallery. That's what it felt like.)

If I made a mistake, it was that I two correlated contracts on at the same time. I wasn't paying enough attention to realize they were correlated until after I had them on. In a way it's a good thing I didn't get out of one of them, because if I had it would have been ZN. The only reason I kept it is I thought the floor pivot, which was, I think, at 20, would be good support. It was bad luck I was stopped out of ym, the trade was huge shortly after. Rules is rules.

thanks for your response....I did not mean to sound critical, sorry if I did.......I just thought you saw something like Trading 101 that you simply had to take it ........I saw you made money on that 4th trade so I was hoping that I would learn what event would make you put your rulebook aside and take another plunge ...... ........i just realized that trades 2 and 3 are really trade 2 with 2 contracts ....... my mistake

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  #8 (permalink)
 jstnbrg 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader, TT, InvestorRT
Broker: Advantage Futures, Ninja/TT and InvestorRT/IQFeed.
Trading: Treasury futures
 
Posts: 302 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 193 given, 858 received


zikonc View Post
thanks for your response....I did not mean to sound critical, sorry if I did.......I just thought you saw something like Trading 101 that you simply had to take it ........I saw you made money on that 4th trade so I was hoping that I would learn what event would make you put your rulebook aside and take another plunge ...... ........i just realized that trades 2 and 3 are really trade 2 with 2 contracts ....... my mistake

No need for apologies. On of my biggest flaws as a trader is that sometimes I put the rulebook aside. Usually that doesn't work out too well. I appreciate the input.

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 jstnbrg 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader, TT, InvestorRT
Broker: Advantage Futures, Ninja/TT and InvestorRT/IQFeed.
Trading: Treasury futures
 
Posts: 302 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 193 given, 858 received

Cumulative results. Today's trades highlighted in yellow.

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 jstnbrg 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader, TT, InvestorRT
Broker: Advantage Futures, Ninja/TT and InvestorRT/IQFeed.
Trading: Treasury futures
 
Posts: 302 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 193 given, 858 received


Dodged a bullet. It passed so close it mussed up my hair. I avoided getting stopped out on short ZW by 1 tick, it was actually bid a tick below my stop but didn't trade there. I decided I didn't like the trade and scratched it except for commissions, which I still consider to be a scratch. Would have been my third strike.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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