starting this thread, to get on the right path, that will enable me to get to the next level , with my trading.Since i have read other journals, and been inspired.ive been a member of big mikes for about 4 months, and i think the support from the members, and mike, is truly amazing.
i looked through some of the journals, and perrys style of charts , and trading, appeal to the style that i would like to emulate.trading with the trend, is more forgiving, than trying to pick bottoms and tops.I have included an attachment, of the chart i have so far.perry was nice enough, to forward the force index, and dm plus, and i havent got it quite right
* i have fast and slow lines set at hash/dash/90 for the force index
* for the dmplus, the adx above and below, i made transparent, and the +di and -di are at hash/dash/90
im not sure if this is something that is different with nt7, i just want these 2 indicators to look like perrys.
i really appreciate the help ive gotten from beth, perry, and max-td.
i am using better renko charts, with a brick size of 2, which has a max range of 5 ticks per bar
i also have a 2oo ma on the chart, which is orange.other mas are, 40 ma in purple, 3ma in black, 14 ma ema colors
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the 2nd attachment, once price cleared 200 ma, took 2 pullbacks...wish they all worked like this.I wonder if this would be a typical perry type trade?i like how price pulls back into the sharply sloping 14ma, entry is when price penetrates 3ma upward
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finally got my charts up and done(i think).was using 2 better renko charts, which , give off alot of signals, but after 2 months of simming with them, i went back to the 4 range.currently, i watch 6b, 6e, and ym.i get up at 3 am new york time to trade the european currencies.it took a while to get used to this, but its ok.
basically, i just scrapped my entire workspace, and visited the forum, and decided to use perrys approach.his approach, trading with the trend, is sensible, and similar to what i was trying to do previously.the charts are basic, and thats great, because my old charts had way to many moving avgs, and other indicators.
i think my main problem, like most other traders, is staying out of the chop.hopefully, i can use the adx correctly, and avoid most of that.
i went back to simulating in december, because i was tired of giving $ away.i will not return to cash, until profitable while simulating
i look forward to getting to the next level, and getting back to cash
for the attachment, 3/11/2011, the 3 trades outlined in orange, have full agreement.my intent is to enter as the dm+(blue) is above the green adx,AND RISING.the first entry is the breakout, the 2nd and 3rd are pullbacks.you can see the 4o ma (purple) is rising nicely, and the 200 ma (orange)is way below, also rising nicely.i like how the 14 ma is rising together , closely, with the 3ma, and the pullbacks are supported by the 14 ma, with the dm+ rising on each entry.usually , the 2nd pullback is more risky, but i think that the dm+ should give permission(by rising), or if it is too weak, pass on the entry.
i just got started with perrys basic method, and by no means, am proficient.i just switched back to a 4range chart, because my 2better renko was just throwing off too many entries for me to filter.i spent 2 months workin on that, and in the end, i scrapped the whole workspace...i need simple
have a great weekend!
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ADX lags horribly and will protect you from nothing. If anything, use it on a lower timeframe then the one you trade. Alternatively, you can up 20 EMA on your present chart, and simple avoid trading when there are many overlapping candles close to is (credit: Al Brooks' BW concept).
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2 typical short setups...
have used the dmi/adx indicators in the past, apparently, not correctly
the adx green line, is the key.it needs to be green, and rising.for the shorts,the di- needs to be rising also on entry...so basically, whatever direction for trade, both line need to be rising
i think they work better when both the 3ma and 14 ma are below the 40 ma, and i dont trade into the 2oo ma
also, i dont like to take signals near hod or lod
finally, another short
still simulating here, just started perrys method, probably not exact, starting tomorrow, all trades will be listed, and i really need to stay consistent with my thread..till tomorrow
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ok, yesterday i got real busy with the family
day total:4 trades
-8
+2
break even bad fill
ok, pics are out of order, will go in order of time of day
actually missed the original entry, ended up taking 1st entry at high, which gave me -8.this was essentially a pullback entry, but, really, there is no pb, just chop
also realized, entry which is hod, which i avoid
for chart trader on nt, i set stop loss/stop gain at 8/8, and when price moves to +5, my profit stop goes to +2
i know...conservative
2nd trade , being stubborn, because the 14 ma rising,(green), again at hod, went to +5, stopgain at +2
3rd trade, countertrend, had some room to the 4o ma(purple dash), but, should have entered earlier upon 3ma cross of 14 ma.anyway, went +5, bad fill..breakeven
reason for trade, price trying to find bottom, reentered sr channel
4th trade, broke out of channel, took 1st pullback, when my mas were lined up +8
this , ithink, had full agreement for perrys method, and had enough room to the 2oo ma(orange)
by far, best trade of the day
in summary, i missed 2 or 3 good trades, typical..so easy to say afterward, but they were trades that fit my method...
will do better when...1)dont miss those trades, focus harder
2)dont take trades that arent in the method (usually chop)
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ok adding a quick entry today 3/17/11
bad day, got caught up in the ym chop fest, throw in some slippage, and pretty much sums it up
went back to sim3 months ago, ..yes..went back..got tired of giving $away
the market always lets me know when i make mistakes, and im grateful for that..no need to waste time imagining, would rather realize the problems , and adjust and learn
been going for 2 years now, and its mt 3rd time around, thankfully, i keep my stops, or id be long gone
at any rate , tomorrow is another day..trades not worth poosting
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i just wanted to say a huge thanks to big mike, for the webinar on saturday.speaking for myself,the road has been a long one, with many downs, and few ups.if this were easy , everyone would do it.i appreciate mikes personal candidness, and open honesty.i continue to look forward, and stay positive, and intend to reach my simple goal..to be a consistent profitable trader
i had to leave before mike wrapped it up, but i seem to remember mike saying it would be recorded
ill be looking for it
thanks again mike!!
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3/23/11
ok, been out of my journal, last 2 days, because i had no trades.after mikes webinar, ive been doin some hard thinking.in the last few months, had so many changes, it was silly.the only good thing, is they all got simpler, as i got rid of most of the indicators.
right now, i use a 4rng entry chart , and a 5 min for trend, 60 min just for pivots
the key on the 4rng, is , i have a 3ma , 14 ma, 40 ma, and 200 ma.as much as ive wanted to take the 2oo ma off, ive watched it prove itself too many times.
i also have dynamic sr on 4rng, which gives me a channel to see.
simple method, is, watch every 3ma /14 ma cross.the 40 ma should be underneath for longs.when these 3 mas are alligned correctly, what i like to see, is, the 3ma cross the 14, pb, and then bust out of the sr channel.the 1st pullback after this, is usually goo to take.2nd is more risky.always try to be with 5min trend, if there is one.
i get up at 3 am to trade 6b and 6e.i also watch the cl.
trade 1) 6b, stopped out +1`, it had dropped pretty far, and the 5min was pretty extended.forgot about 5:30 news, got lucky
trade 2)6b didnt take..hesitated..cant do that, gotta take the setups trade
trade 3)cl continuation long, -7, was a pb, (pull back)
trade 4)cl long, was a 2nd pb after channel break, more risk-6
trade 5)broke out of channel, stopped +4 long on cl
trade6)1st pb after channel breakdown, stopped +4 on cl short
good things for today
no laptop on while trading..missed so many trades while head is turned
dialing in a specific method
focus getting better
no changes on charts for 2 weeksd...have a list allready '
things to work on
focus..keep working onit and improving
adhere to method, take all the signals without hesitation,
when in atrade , that is a breakout in a trend, focus on the pbs that could come, dont be so engulfed in the trade , that you miss opportunity
focus at all times on what market is giving me..its rarely perfect, but small pieces of transparency do occur
totals
6 trades -43
commiss-30
total-73
i will , in the future, get more specific and detailed about my journal
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3/24/2011
ok, took a trade early, like 4 am on cl, +6
was a countertrend, price had shot up, and based , forming a channel, ..bounced off bot o channel, 3x, so i put a sell stop just below channel, got hit, lucky +2 fill, but i only barely came down , before it rversed..ill call that lucky, as i was out at +6
2nd trade
took a long on cl, my 3 mas were in order, price tried to bust out of channel, then retraced to rising 14 ma, so i put a buy stop at top of channel, order got hit, and hesitated, testing the rising 14 ma 2 more times, got filled at +6
the problem with this trade , is, i was so focussed on the trade working, didnt take a 2nd entry, which was much better.
good things today:
well, 2 winners in a row.i gotta look at that as a possitive, even tho the 1st trade was riskier, and i didnt enter on the better entry on the 2nd
laptop off, less distraction
bad things today:
well, they outnumber the good, by far...take a look at pic 2, these are the setups i want to focus on..pullbacks into the 14 ma, all 4 mas are alligned, in order.why didnt i take these???hmm, im trying to remember, oh, because i was looking at the 6b, and lost focus..bad answer, cl is hard enough to trade, never mind lookin at something else.off tomorrow, starting monday, at 8:30 eastern, only cl up for 2 hours.i will copy this image , and study, and make my screen saver.the crap of it is, as i was lookin back and forth, i missed a good 6b trade too...wrong answer..ive said all along, i wanted to improve my focus, well, this is why
also, been sim trading for 3 months, was in cash prior, but realized, needed more work..now that i have this journal, and im trying to be accountable, the old blood pressure goes up when im in a trade, and im only simmin, mind you
goals for monday
more of the same , wait for my setup, be patient, and focus focus focus, andf dont beat myself up, because progress is being made..baby steps
i was off friday, needed to do some work on the house.the good thing about manual labor, for me, is it gives me a chance to wind down, relax, and regroup my thoughts.trading, i am realizing, has become an obsession.there are good things about it, and bad.i do have some distraction, thankfully, having 2 year old twins, but, to be honest, i seem to be constantly pulled out of the moment, only to think about trading.to be more specific, i am thinking about the method that i am working on, and the rules i need to observe.in the last few months, i had days where i thought , "man , im getting close", only to realize i needed to make changes.well, thankfully, i yanked just about everything off my charts, and went back to a 4 range chart for entries, which seems to work better.the webinar mike gave , is so full of insights, but for the struggling trader, i have one thought that came to me ,this weekend, while thinking to myself.heres the thing: if hard work alone were the key, alot more of us would be alot richer.the combination, needed to cross the line, is comprised of many factors.often, it is our weakest attribute, which could make the difference.when im asked by wife , hows it goin? i just say"still workin", and its obvious, that there is frustration, and for lack of a better word, i, like many others , am just weary, because its a grind, day in and out.if this was easy, everyone would do it.now , i dont want to sound like im complaining, because im grateful, that the market reprimands those who make mistakes, because the 5% that are profitable benefit from this.
to summarize these thoughts, i think that the key, is for me to be confident in my trading.that is a big statement, because i go off results, and allthough better, still not there.i believe, that in the last 2 weeks, i have pretty much finalized the guidelines for my method.this is good.now, i need to focus, and execute.in the last 2 months, i felt this way atleast 3 times, so i am cautious...nevertheless, even though i was mistaken those 3 times, i learned from it.this has been such an absurd lesson in patience, and also, staying positive and subjective , in the face of adversity.looking forward to monday
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3/28/2011
mondays , historically, havent been good for me..lookin to change that
the entries , that i am looking for now, seem to be much better.the funny thing, is i am basing these entries , on moving averages.perrys method, is what i started with, and i have altered some things to fit my method(mine includes a 200 ma for instance)i think , that i am the type of person who needs to be beat up, thru and thru, before i finally give in , and focus..the mind is a very tricky thing for me, and my focus , in the past, was not good enough..but, its not just that..ive always used mas.the problem, is i get distracted by the candles!if i focus on the mas, the crosses, pullbacks, etc, it all makes sense.ive got a week left, before i can make any changes on my charts, which is fine
today, i had alt of cancelled trades, the CL was rangy after the open, and i finished at 10:40 am eastern
trade1)a short.price had pulled back to the 14ma, so i put sell stop under that candle..filled, and my +5/+2 profit stop kicked in..no problem, bad fill break even...i never enjoy trading at lod/hod..had 4 lanes, gotta take
trade 2) 4 lanes here , lookin for entry.again, 3ma crossed 14ma, price pb to 14 ma, pu buy stop just above pb candle .ross hook plotted 1,2,3, that makes me feel good too
trade 3)4 lanes here.look at the 3ma and 14ma real close together, gring towards top of channel, which was prev resistance..placed bs just at top of channel..price was riding the 14 ma up, basically propelling the break +6
summary
3 trades.+12 ticks
good things
focus is improving
watching mas more, watching candles less
stayed out of trouble
executed well
things to work on
stilllneed to "be in the zone" with the mas, need to improve on that, so there are less missed trades
also, i quit trading 6b and 6e was getting up at 3 am..exhausting..but it served its purpose
the cl gives so many opportunities every day..plan to trade 2-3 hours of cl each am, and NOTHING else up on any screen
no internet
no laptop
no tv
trade 1)countertrend, a grinder..40/14/3mas in order, 2oo far below..countertrend short, had room though..price pb to 14ma.. maybe my entry should have been just under red bar reject of 14 ma..nevertheless, went +4, stop out -9
trade 2) mistake trade, for a long , 14 ma needs to be above 14ma ..watchin candles, got smacked -7
missed trade?? when price is out in the open like this, i tend to tune out..hmmm easy to see in playback, momentum trade
trade3) ninja shut down on me, hit my profit target,twice, but didnt fill.. +1 scratch
trade 4) ninja weird malfunction i think, anyway,-8 for my effort..i guess there is a reason why i shut down at 10:30,
5 trades
2 break even
3 losses
-255 with commisions
good things...hmmmm focusing better and better everyday.today was a weird day, even my good entries didnt smile for me
bad things..get off computer at 10:30
dont try to make back losses as market slows down
definately missed some good ones, but missing less every day
traded yesterday, got beat up 3 trades -$265 after comm
well, the dmi adx i use, is history..why?? because i just wasnt using it.i was taking signals that were out of context with the market.3 stops in arow.look, i m tryin to get 6 ticks, and if i cant even get to 4 to get me safe, well, i think its clear.
realizing, that to catch this momentum, i need a trigger that i can rely on.macd.used it for so long, but, as is the case, with all the others, had to use it incorrectly, to realize the simplicity of its usefulness..
i use the 5min for a backdrop, and the CL is pretty good with sup/res/pivot points.the macd is really good at pointing out divergence, also
after doin a quick backtest, honestly, this might be the mostr simple strategy yet, and i like that
basically, base my entries on the macd cross of the zero line.this usually coincides with a 1,2,3 plot of my ross hook, which my good friend ray burke turned me onto.incidently, we dont need the ross hook (1,2,3) to plot, to take the trade.also, when price reaches a point that we expoect a turn, i look for this setup.also, when we have decent ranges, it works real nice too!
ok trade 1) you see the red line, that is my entry bs(buy stop)got a gift fill, you see the 1,2,3, plot. out +6
trade2)baaddd fill, should have flattened, -6 startin to chop a little here
trade 3)man, slow fill..still worked, +6 another good thing, is 3 ma over 14 ma for long, macd cross, and hist ogram getting larger
good things
i feel good about this change..regardless, ill leave it for 2 weeks.i also got rid of the 40 ma.the only thing i might add is better vol, to see if it is helpful, but not to base trades
this is less stressful, because it is so simple to me
bad things
well, we lost $ for one thing, but still simulating, thank god!!
the trades earlier in the week, were garbage.if i put them up with the macd, most werent even trades.i realize , that to place so much emphasis on an indicator,, might turn some people off.however, for me, i need a trigger, and this is it.we will see in 2 weeks
i have my boys home today, kids are home sick today, got off this one, premarket,
i like the setup, macd gave great diverg on doub bottom..ross hook plotted, i allready had a buystop in .trade went 5 ticks, and stopped me out at +2, which is my stop loss strategy.only shooting for 6 ticks
1 trade
+2
i am very happy with this entry method..funny thing, is, i have used the macd for entries in the past, but , now , the difference is, i am putting the entries together differently.i feel they are stronger entries, as opposed to just a macd cross of the zero line.i use the 5 min, for trend, sup/res, then i look for a setup on 4 rng.pretty simple
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real choppy today, found myself cancelling alot of orders
trade 1)didnt take, bad job, i had a sell stop , and cancelled.price doub topped off 2oo ma with a diverg on macd.i was lulled into doubt by the chop.bad job
trade 2)macd was iffy, i just pulled trigger too
early.the pullbacks are still dipping below 14 ma, even tho 3 ma is above 14, i would have been happier with the trade, if price didnt penetrate the 14.honestly, i should have passed on this trade alltogether, regardless of timing
things to work on
dont hesitate, trade 1 waqs pretty much everything i like to see.saying to myself " i just wasnt feeling it today" is bs ..if thats the case , walk away..
good things
well, today was a chopfest, and chop is my mortal enemy.range days are ok, but the ranges need to be bigger, thatsd all.even tho i took a -8 stop, thats not going to kill me
4/7/2011
off yesterday
today, seemed to be just choppin around, grindy
mushy lines on the macd
one thing i notice with the CL, is it tends to pay attention to sup/res pivots pretty well
realizing this, i find myself trying to be active when these pivots are hit
i guess that makes me a countertrend trader.hmmm..i worked very hard to change that in the past.my method is much more specific now, so i wont just do a comparison of one vs the other.anyway, one thing roger felton mentioned, in his webinar, rang true to me.at these pivots, volume tends to come inits as simple as that..vol gives volatility.my setup tends to work very well .one thing i keep telling myself is, dont get lulled into complacency when the market is grinding and slow. keep assessing the setups, and stay sharp.i only trade the CL 2 1/2 hours max..
also, focus..no tv, no laptop,no texting, and no chatroom until i have proven i can focus.typing on a keyboard taked my eyes off the screen,its as simple as that
trade1) price came down to sup on the 5 min, so i was prepared for a longi set my bs , and it was hit.sluggish reaction, which doesnt make me happy..the 14 ma held, and i had plenty of room to the 200ma.
+6
good things.
focus was good today.
i seem to have finally come up with a way to logically and usefully use the 5 min.this helps, and , there are times, when i just wont fight it..smarter..if price takes off, they can have it
things to work on.
as always, focus,
i am realizing, that when price hits important pivots, that my setups arent always perfect, but the volatility tends to be there, and all im lookin for right now is 6 ticks
attitude..this is a biggie..i find myself just thinkin, man, is this gonna happen?my method seems very good, my focus gets better avery day..but, that cloud seems to try to push into my thoughts: "its been 2 years, im back to simming, and i really would like to just be at the next level allready." then, the voice of reason "yes, and so would alot of others...just remember, you didnt get your butt kicked these 2 years, and you learned so much, the consistency is definately better, just be patient"ok , im done talkin to myself for now
bye
trade 2) pretty similar to trade 1, price came down to pivot on 5 min
big differnce tho, in the fact that the macd was far from crossing, and for that matter, never did...volatility was there tho, all those shorts covering, and like i said , only lookin for 6 ticks and all
+6
got roasted pretty good today, the funny thing, is i didnt hate any of the trades, they all had room, to a logical pivot,
all 5 trades on CL
trade 1)typical macd cross, follow thru +6
2)got a short quicly after, had room to bot of channel, -7
3) with this long, i pulled the trigger early, however, the macd cross which ilike, i anticipated..i find , with the cl, if u wait, you miss....-7
4basically, took trade for same reason as trade 3, -7
5) )i liked this setupbut price came up and stopped me out , barely.basically, price came back tol 200 ma, and fell -8
good things about today
taking the signals, with little hesitation
things to work on
well, for the am, the trend was clearly down, but the longs i took had enough room
focus was ok today
i think today was just one of those days, where the follow thru wasnt going to happen.i do need to focus, as in the past, to the retracements to the 14 ma, when the 3ma and 14 ma are trending
5 trades -24 ticks thats my limit
the week.......... 9 trades
-18 ticks see below
-$225 after commiss
well, the cl really picked up, so i took 2 more,
trade 6]simple pullback to 14ma, short under candle +6
trade 7 ) passed on a valid , good setup..bad boy
trade 8)bounced off good support, threw the signal +6
todays total
7 trades,,,,,-12 ticks
-$155 after commiss
rev total for week
11 trades
-6 ticks
-$115 for week
4/11/2011
got the kids home for 2 weeks.,, so ill do my best to trade
trade1)had a diverg doub bot at 200ma sup, entered upon 1,2.3 ross hook..too slow, bailed at be.doesnt matter that it worked , i made the choice
trade2)price had bottomed here previously.gave 1,2,3.........+6
trade 3)had room to the top of channel, got the 1,2,3, and my 5+2 stop gain activated.....+2
trade4)gave diverg doub bot at lod, 1,2,3, and 5+2 stop gain again.....+2
sooo many trades today, but just too distraccted with the boys
4 trades
+10 tcks
summarize..my entries feel like they are getting better, i try to gauge the chop, and stay out.realizing, that 1 stop at -8 gives me break even for the day, i can understand why some would question only going for +6 on each trade.its very simple, imo, for me, and my risk tolerance, with only 1 contract, if i cant get consistently get 6 ticks , i need to assess what i am looking at for entries.usually, my bad days, are because i take trades in chop, a typical mistake.ther foundation i am building, will hopefully instill the confidence i will need , to in the future, go to 2 , or evn 3 contracts.that will enable me to catch the runners,.for now, though, i only focus on the present, which is to be consistent with 1 contract....until i earn the right to trade 2.and for that matter, i need to go to cash first, which, i hope is in nea future.peace.
by the way, the webinar mike gave, was huge....stop changing charts and method...no method works every single day
look at the 4th pic, which is same as 1st.i think this will keep me out of some trouble.when the CL has a straight drop like that to a pivot, traders are not going to ignore this, .the 2nd trade was much cleaner, and, we should expect more from it.if it continues down, i still like the long, atleast for my 6 ticks
oops, the 4th chart(not there) actually replaced 1st chart
4/12/2011
took 9 trades today.im not going to post the pics for them.the cl was a beast today, i found myself getting pushed around, and wisely, took a break.
today 9 trades
8 cl...-9 ticks...-$90
1 6b...+8 ticks+$50
total........9 trades -$85
the pic i am posting, is somrthing that has been on my mind for so long...trading with the trend...i really want to cherry pick those counter trend entries, and focus on trend trades..look at the pic
oh, thanks Ray Burke, for pointing out the obvious once again
friday
4/158/2011
have the kids this week, trading has been limited
kind of a bummer, as i want to work on the method, and it feels pretty good
i still make some mistakes.worst of all...trading in chop
today, amazingly, i had 12 trades
1) missed original nice entry, my 5 +2 activated +2
2)nice sig off pb from 200, waqs missed..the trade i took was a pb to the 14 ma and tct overlap +6
3)nice macd cross,123 buy +6
4)nicer macd cross 123 +6
5)bad entry, it eventually fell, these aRE HARD TO TIME, trying to figure when a grind ends..i hate these -8
6)123 , i got impulsive, horrible fill, all the way down there got out lucky be
7)used market buy in chop zone ..ooyyy -8 at this point , i should have stopped thats 2 full stops in chop zone
8)price fell below chop zone, and rallied, 123 +6
9)another attempt to get the top, no need, i only want 6 ticks had 123 -7
10)diverg doub top..it worked , but i bailed -2, i fely like i was done at this point, having giving $back with crap trades +9 still, up $40 after commiss
11)real movement came in, with volmomentum and follow thru pos slip +8
12)123 short , with macd cross, fast..pos slip +8 im done
total +25 ticks
12 trades
today i got burned by trading into a grind,..there were some good trades, some bad..atleast i perked up on 11 and 12 when market was good, in the past , i would be mentally out of it..this is when we get the follow thru
also, the reintroduction of the tct trendline.i used this forever.the idea, is to take the 123 ross hooks when in agreement with the tct trendline..this is a good filter, and i am happy with it, as taking every 123 will get me killed.in combination with the 5min, which i use for trend and pivots, i feel i am inching towards my goal.hopefully, next month , i can get some full weeks of trading in, so i can continue to practice, and gain confidence
4/17/2011
have the kids all week , so , just trying to get a few, and stay out of trouble
today, on my 4 range for cl, price seemed to spend so much time around the 200 ma, and i really hesitate to take sigs close to that.anyway, i had 3 winners
trade 1) took a long on the ym ,5+2 strategy kicked in, +2
trade2)cl took a 123 long, price was in a clear downtrend, and grinding.the support pivot on the 5 min was so obvious..but price went only 8 ticks from my entry..hence the reason i am searching for a setup WITH THE TREND..the tct and mas were all lined up tho also, accompanied by the macd cross..+6
trade 3)this was alittle better, all mas in line, macd cross, 123, with a macd diverg doub bot...cant ignore this...+6
total
3 trades
1 ym +2...+$10
2 cl +13...+$130
good things, being more selective with the 123 entries,taking longs above tct, shorts below
after discussion with friend ray, have decided to be more picky with the macd crosses, to try to stay out of chop..be wary when macdis choppin below -.04 and above .04
also letting trades play out, not bailing when +4
things to work on
the 123 entries i take , usually work, if they set up correctly.however, they are usually countertrend, and this has been nagging at me for a long time.,i am pretty picky, and usually get them at pivots, wkere a coil is likely, and i am picky about the setup.
i have enclosed a 5 min ch, with a clear break down.also, the 4 range to accompany it.with this type of trade, i have realized , that it is just a different type of entry, and i cant rely on the 123 for the entry.lets face it bob, you dont need a 123 to take a trade, its just funny, when something starts to work, thats a typical thing for me.i have been looking at these type of trend plays for a while, and the ticks come easier,when trading with the trend.every now and then,
i think what i need to do , is assess the trend on the 5 min, and specifically look for entries,and try to incorporate this into my method, and try to be specific about entries.
Your're welcome....I think thats what Mike and Cory were trying to tell you in earlier posts...I just decided to show you....It took me a few posts to get it right as well....that reply button is kinda hidden down at the bottom....I think there is one at the top left as well of the page.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
4/19/2011
very busy today with kids, no trades
i did sit for a while, but the setups just didnt setup to my preference
i added some new pics, with these, basically, all 3 mas are lined up, with the 123 punch
still like the macd crosses, and some of these are with them, and some not.i will be looking for these entries, so hopefully, i will get a few more high probability trades.these are really the setups ive been taking anyway, however, now, i wont be so triggershy around 200 ma, as long as the setup isthere
off tomorrow
thursday
trade 1}typical macd cross, everyone line up weird fill, but worked either way +6
trade 2missed , got kids today
trade 3)missed , cant remember why
trade 4) passed, a little choppy
trade 5)missed, monkey popped up outside my window, i turned to wave, oops
trade 6)missed, frankly? my head was in my a#@!
you get the point
next week, back to focus.hopefully
i added the 3min chart, with a 5sma and a 15 sma, for trend..i used this for a long time, and i brought it back to try to gauge the chop, and also spot emerging moves.just remember , if price is riding 5ma, allow 2 ticks for overshoots if lookin to scalp against it.i didnt bring it back to keep me out of good trades, keep watchin those macd crosses when 3mas allign on 4 rng
total
1 trade +6
The following user says Thank You to bobarian for this post:
wanted to post some thoughts, ....
alot of the 123 setups are good, however, a good portion of them arent taken , because my 3 mas arent in agreement.typically, when i have agreement , the 123s work very well.hers my thought.instead of just turning my mind off, because the mas arent alligned, stay with the setup, and WAIT for the allignment, which should be the 1st pb.heres the thing..make sure 1) macd is favorable
2) you have room for the scalp
3)good, especially if coiling off of an important pivot
thanks for the encouraging words mike.although i am still simulating, this is how i will trade , starting with 1 contract.i hope to be trading cash soon.
4/25/2011
first day trading, with no distractions in 2 weeks
important day, as i had 2 weeks pos in a row in sim, a first
1)long, price popped, the anticipated macd cross didnt happen..bad entry -8
also, no trades between 8:50 and 9..take br break
2)long 123 macd cross, at this point , the 3min 5 starts to take control...+4
with the 3min5 taking the desc res role, pbs to that provided many shorts
3)long, anticipated 123 macd cross, not even close to crossing bob.........-6 bailed, knew i was wrong
4)long, macd allready crossed, went to +4, i bailed sideways consolidated action...-1
5)long, yep, still tryin...sideways, got a reverse 123..................................................-6
6)short..really?and WITH THE TREND?5/+4 activate...........................................+4
7)long 123 macd cross..had room.......................................................................+6
8)long, macd 123..full agreeement....................................................................+5
9)long., sideways, but agreed..5/+4 activate.....................................................+4
9 trades
+3 ticks..........-$15 after commiss
i will start, with things to work on, because today became a catch up day, instead of a nice , trade with the trend day:
first and foremost, the 3 min, really took the lead today, as you see.basically, the previous high a few weeks ago was 114ish, which we didnt reach...silly me, 113.50 is close enough..and they ran , for the exits.there were so many short entries, and by the time i started to look for them, the party was over
on days like this, they use all the long signals to sell into, and longs will not follow thru.the reason i say htis, is because just about all the short 123s(which werent set up to my likeing at all, went for 30 to 40 quick ticks, where the longs, even the good setups , struggled to get me 6.the 3 min chart i enclosed points out the obvious...the 3min5 was the boss..these days are not as common, and i need to pay tribute to the boss, if there is one..he likes that
good things
well, today was important, because after babysitting for 2 weeks, i managed to have 2 pos weeks in a row in sim, a first for me
mondays are traditionally tuff for me, but heres the thing...i worked hard to develop this method, and its time to work..plain and simple
at my worst , i was down 16 ticks, and one more full stop would have ended my day
ok , so i realized too late(really, it was obvious, right b4 my eyes)that today was a shorting day
the thing i am really pleased with , is i stayed focussed, and worked
the last 4 trades were winners, and i shut her down at 10:30, realizing i was happy with what i ended at
and didnt want to look a gift in the mouth
the point is, there are many opportunities from 8:30 th 10:30, and that is all i allow myself to trade , because of overtrading, in the past, and most of the time giving it back, or losing much more..i ended on a positive note, and went to the gym
I too had problems with consistency. Over the last few months I've really improved on this. Me being consistent, never! hah. But it really started to take hold when I did just as you said above, sit my ass down and get to work on one method. Stick to it and work it, refine it. Each day, every day. Little by little. I'm sure you'll find, if you haven't already, that this will improve your consistency in a drastic and positive way. Keep it up!
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4/26/2011
only 2 trades today..i try not to trade between 8:50 and 9:05 eastern on the cl, because i think right around the open, price action gets whippy.too bad, as there were takable signals
today , was just weird for me.ive been focussing on the 3min chart to try to spot trend changes, and to keep me out of trouble.often, i will get into a 123 setup, say a long, only to realize, on the 3min, im bumping right into a descending 5ma, which has been the boss in a downtrend..usually, unless we bounce off an important pivot, this will stall price.also, this tends to create one of those chop zones, which have gotten me too many times in the past.anyway, the purpose of the 3min, is to help me recognize, when a potential trend change is possible.when price levels off, and the 3min 5ma crosses the 15 ma, this will coincide with a macd cross on the 3min(typically).this doesnt mean that we cant chop around for a while, but if price starts to move up, i will look for long entries on my 4 range ch that coincide with a rising support of the mas on the 3min.this can work niicely, but ,i have to be careful to use this in context correctly with the 4 range, which is my entry ch..i think feel comes into play here.also, my preferred setup, seems to work really well in range bound markets, but there needs to be a decent range(obviously)i dont think taking my setup blindly in all markets is necessarily the best thing, even if it works sometimes.these grindy trendy days are difficlt for me
1)long at 3min support, and 4 rng support.this just broke down, and blew me out.. -8
dropped 35 ticks, kinda out of nowhere 2nd trade was totally counter trend, where 1st, i was atempting to be with trend
2)same move, took a long did get a 123, and thought i had room +5/4 activate.....+3
total 2 trades
-5 ticks............-$60 with commiss
today as i said, was a little weird, couldnt really find anything i was really excited to take, spent most of the time sitting on my hands
actually , today was good tho, as i stayed out of some trades that were losers for sure, based on the 3 min
uploaded some more pics, and modified pic 1 original...
as i was driving to the gym, i had this nagging feeling, that i was starting to get off ttrack..there are days where my simple method wont work,today was one.
keep it simple..2 trades are
1)123 with macd cross and agreement
2) pb in a trend where price pulls back to a trending 14 ma, and watch for them just after a 5min 5ma/15 ma cross
so i couldnt wait to get home, to see where i could have got a few trades...there were none for me..the only decent setups were right at the open
on pic 1, just look at the desc aarrow on macd
pic 2, that 2nd short was ok, i missed 1st
pic 3 was pre market, that pb was the 1st pb after the 5ma/15 ma cross on the 3 min, and actually pb to 15ma
hold on , not true, the other pbs were to the correct 5ma, which gave a few decent shorts
im searching today for reasons..today just didnt work..one of those days
thurs, 4/28/2011
sat thru the 8:30 to 10:30 shift, with no trades.most of the action wasnt that great for me, but towards the end, we got into a decent size channel, with decent range,the only problem, is with my method, the 123 entries on the pbs(ross hook), i like for the 3ma to cross the 14 ma.well, this has been on my mind for a while, and today, i just said, enough.i have missed too many good trades waiting for the 14ma.i switched it to a 8sma.yes, i know.....first of all , that might get me some shaky signals, but i still take my entries with the macd, and am watching the 3min and 5min for sup/res.went to gym, came back, to find the market was really movin, so as i was skyping with my friend ray, got off 5 trades, for a total of +120
the changes i have made in the last month, have been to make my charts easier to trade with the cl specifically.most of the bells and whistles are long gone, leaving price action and sup/res.so much easier, and i am happier.i took the day yest because bernanker was blabbing, so i figured it would be a dudd..oh well, i was wrong, but i needed to get some stuff done.
the focus now is the same, just be patient, wait for my entries, and try to avoid chop.
for the longest time, i said to myself, i just want to show up, work a few hours, and go home, without thinking about this 24/7.with some adjustments, and alot of hard work, i finally am relaxing more, and pondering less.i think this is because i finally have a method i believe in, and its just a matter of time.see you tommorrow
friday4/29/2011
no trades , vol was lo, ranges were bad, and wasnt getting anything to really believe in..the sup/res were all over the place, they can fight over the scraps
of course , ill shut it down, and it will go to 114
8:30 to 10:30 trading, works best for me
week total
16 trades
+ 10 ticks
+ $20 after commiss
didnt trade wed
The following user says Thank You to bobarian for this post:
5/2/2011
monday
took 3 trades today.
i just dont have a trade for these types of days...the breakout, grind to new highs
im aware of this, and not thrilled
my method works well when the market is rangy.i did get some good ones, after the grind to the highs.
although the 1st trade, didnt surprise me when it failed.
its hard to watch the market moving like this, with no trades, but until i devise one, this is what happens.i hesitate to take 123 sigs at the days high, nevermind yearly highs, but the market was charging
ok
1)you see i didnt take that 123 at daily highs..i got caught , but no regret, as we were at highs -6
2)nice setup, no grind.5/+2 activate, should have reentered under white line............................+3
3)another 123, nice run, atm strategy followed me up, best trade to date, should have probably exited so close to 2oo ma.......................................................................................................................................+15
4) lookj at this beautiful db diverg, w a 123....oh, .......i didnt take that..bob gets the rolled up newspaper slap to the backside...these are too good to pass up
total
3 trades
+11 ticks
+$95 after commiss
like i said, these are difficult days for me, the stops need to be much wider, and im just not comfortable with that..will continue to assess , and possibly in the future, look for entries, probably pbs to the 8ma.i shoud be happy i suppose, after all, it was a pos day..we rarely see this type of trend movement, and it bothers me to be on the sideline...ok, no more complaining
till tomorrow
5/3/2011
tuesday
4 trades today
1)went to +7, stopped at +3..200 ma right there, should take profits.................................................+3
2)short, did have overlap res, lowered stop, trade was having trouble..good stop.............................-4 pic 3, i just want to point out a possible long.not the 1st one, as that was at a doub top.the 2nd one
looked ok
3)that short just before my 3rd trade was a trap door.long went 5/+2...............................................+2
4)nice diverg doub bot, finally got a runner, and wisely closed at 200 ma............................................+12
things to work on....continue with 123 with macd setups, and the divergences are nice
also, look for trap doors, which are with trend
just another day, really watching macd, to avoid chop, i shut it down after trade 4 , as i was content..went to gym
totals
4 trades
+13 ticks
+$110 after commiss
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5/4/2011
wednesday
0 trades today, the setups ive been takin g, just didnt setup the way i like.
ism,at 10, and inventory at 10:30 , price was jittery.i looked over the morning, and i have no problem with the decisions.a couple of the 123 setups i like just ran a little too far.oh well, tomorrow is another day.
still observing, and looking for a breakdown/breakout trade
4 trades,
1)just a 123 short, with such a short bias, i tested the waters.....................................................................+28
2)breakdown short, 5/+2 activate..................................................................................................................+2
3)short, thought we were heading back down to lod..wrong.........................................................................-6
4)took a bottom dweller long on ym, went 8 ticks...........................................................................+4
the 1st trade was my best ever, and i kinda sat on my hands thru some decent trades.i was kinda done i guess, not wanting to give back
whateva, its green, leave it be
pic1)123 printed, waited for macd, after the pb
good trade
pic2)+28 no trail stop
pic3) passed...shorts abound, should have taken
pic4)diverg db, entry would be just above lo candle...6 tick risk
pic5)pb, ive been thinkin about these, keep it up
pic 6) thought we were heading lower, with trend
total cl..3 trades +24
ym 1 trade +4
+$260
+$240 after commiss
The following user says Thank You to bobarian for this post:
i was looking at some of my previous trades, and not surprising, some of them wouldnt be taken now.with my focus on the macd, i try to avoid chop.one effective weay, is too avoid trading when the macd is moving around in the .04 to -.o4.this keeps me out of alot of the sideways action
friday
5/6/2011
12 trades
funny, i have the kids today, and i thought, maybe just sit tight today, the cl being so crazy
i switched to the 6e, and away we went
had some good trades, and a few bad ones all in all , a decent day for me
1) classic diverg db, i got in late.......................................................................................+9
2)was waiting for macd, kinda sloppy here......................................................................+2
3) bad long, macd pitiful...................................................................................................-8
4)bad long, not even close, short if anything...................................................................-8
5)pb long, 123.................................................................................................................+11
6)a little sloppy here, got caught in chop........................................................................-5
7)diverg dt, then got 123, was already in........................................................................+13
8)b/o long.........................................................................................................................+6
9nice short, bailed ....bad job...........................................................................................be
10) early here, should have taken the next one, 123.....................................................+4
11)diverg db, late entry...................................................................................................+6
12horrible macd...............................................................................................................-3
total 12 trades
$307.50
after commiss...+$247.50
week
mon-3..+$95
tue-4..+$110
wed..no trade
thu..4-$+240
fri..12$+247.5
total 23 trades..........+$682.50 after commiss
Trading with kids at home can be very hard to do depending on their ages.
Until the reach a certain age they don't respect what you are trying to do.
It becomes an exercise in frustration.
Later on it gets even more fun when you have to pick them up from school and bring them things they forgot at home.
The good thing about kids is they force you to stay away from the market while still thinking about it.....allowing you to become a survivor and hopefully a winner! Sort of like a forced time out lol.
The following user says Thank You to mmaker for this post:
trading with the kids, doin the cl , can be silly, but i try to pick my windows...my twin boys are 3 next month, and there are times where its not possible.i agree, as far as forced time outs.another thing, is i try to budget my time thinking about trading..i get to spend alot of time with my boys, and it took me a long time to stop think ing about trading while i was with them.it bothered me that i was so distracted, and i finally said enough...i try to leave it all out on the battlefield now, because this job can really get the best of us, in so many ways..its like a bad addiction at times(most of the time).i still have a long way to go, but i believe i am closer... cyall tomorrow
5/9/2011
ahhh, monday
today was very tricky for me.i spent most of the am not taking signals for various reasons
i ended up with 3 trades, for a net +6
1)want to do more of these, this failed tho.......................................................................................-6
2)macd 123 cross, sloppy price action................................................................................................+6
3)finally broke out of annoying wedge123 macd cross.......................................................................+8
today, was much more about missed opportunities.there were so many.part of the problem, for me, with adhering strictly to a method,, is i realize too late, what the market is giving me
picture 1 has so many trades, but i just watchin the leaves, not the forrest.price hit that 200ma, and the bottom channel, and to honest, where the f was i?obviously im pissed, and still am.i came back from gym, price was movin nice, i hit some good ones...we dont count that tho, because for now 8:30 to 10:30 is trading hours only.this, i am strict on, for now..
also, i tend to get lulled , when i dont have a trade for over an hour, so i did pass onb a few setups that DID fit my method...gotta focus, and stay sharp
cya tomorrow
The following user says Thank You to bobarian for this post:
5/10/2011
tuesday
11 trades
1)123 macd cross. had a diverg db too..........................................................................................+5
2)123 macd short, bad fill.+5/2 activate........................................................................................+2
3)bailed early..bad job...................................................................................................................be
4) early, bad job..trying to anticipste , fastmarket..pity , buy sig w diverg db followed, where was i???...-7
5)123 macd long, w trend, best trade of day.....................................................................................+12
should have quit here, and practised
6)123 short, 5/+2, then missed the real trade....................................................................................+2
7short, just a hunch..........................................................................................................................-8
are you kiddin????
8)weak diverg db, with the real signal just after.............................................................................-7
9)short at hod, in a grinding uptrend.... the tilt is in full affect.........................................................-7
10)slop..........................................................................................................................................-7
11)123 long, early for macd...........................................................................................................-6
there were some good trades today, there were a few that were too fast, and i just missed them, usually at a pivot, which i like
i will start trying to catch them more,,its a timing issue
man, i havent tilted in along time.that uptrend in the 1st pic, i should have been taking longs
i need to focus on the macd cross, and stop trying for tops and bottoms
the whole idea of trading 123s, with the trend, is, if there is a pb, it holds the 8ma
if you take a dt or db, there should be a 6 tick risk
wait for atleast price to break the 8ma, and in better case scenario, the 3ma will be crossed to , but, the macd is key.i am getting tunnel vision, because the cl has been fast, and ive been missin signals.the pms are even trickier for me
it really makes sense, to start trading in the direction of the 8ma, i feel that
11 trades -21 ticks
-$265 after commiss..my limit for now
The following user says Thank You to bobarian for this post:
i need to start filtering better with 123s, getting careless.piovots are one thing, but a 123 , should have a decent macd cross about to happen, and.........take some STEPUPS, with the trend
5/11/2011
wed
3 trades
+18 ticks
1) 123 macd cross at pivot diverg db, 3/8ma agree..........................................................................................+8.
2) 123 macd cross at pivot.another diverg db, waited for 3/8 ma agree, and macd..........................................+8
3)123 macd cross, pivot being 200ma 5/+2 activate.........................................................................................+2
total, 3 trades
+18 ticks
definately a little apprehensive today, i need to wait for the signals to evolve, gettin in early, gets me in trouble
if there is a diverg db or dt, there should be a 6 tick risk, otherwise wait for 3/8 ma agree and macd
i did take a few more noteworthy trades, that i didnt count in my total, keeping to a conservative tone today
thoughts about yesterday..before i tilted, i was up 14 ticks, and normally, i would stop.i got cocky,and stupiid, and turned that into a $250ish loss.that is a $400 swing...nogood, i should have stopped , at 14 ticks, worse case, -110, which would be a $250 swing, and not too painful, as $250 is my limit for now
today was silly fast at times, and there is no way i want to trade in that, my fills are bad
the 2 trades for +6 each, especially the last one(breakdown, were good)i am really lookin for these "with the trend" breaks, long and short.today, i had alot of cancelled orders for these types of trades.when the 8ma is sloping, especially off a pivot be ready, anticipate, but dont be too early
good job today
oh , good job to ray also, nice p&l
thurs
5/12/2011
9trades
-1 tick
was down 25 ticks, clawed my way back, had a fatfinger mistake for -11, and 4 or 5 trades that went 5/+2, just one of those days..way too fast in am again
lost data because i had to reset my simulator
pm session, 9 trades, still wippy, had some etrocious fills, but, i included charts for the pm session, which was slower.some good trades
still looking for a trend trade, ive been really watchin for the bo/bd when the 8ma is sloping, which is basically a pb with the 8ma trend
watchin the 3ma, and what i am thinkin, is when the mas are agreeing, look for entries w trend, its when they dont agree , that is getting me into some trouble i think.
what a crazy week.ended up w 26 ticks on pm
that made me feel better, but for weekly results, ill use only am
a little bit of exasperation today, missing good trades, just too fast for me, maybe put up 6e tomorrow
cya
Maybe the 4Range chart is what's making it "too fast" for you? Just sayin'. I look at that chart and just imagine those bars whizzing by. That'd make it exasperating for me, too.
Cheers... Hap
The following user says Thank You to Hapster for this post:
i was talking about that with a friend today, and on days like this, i agree.once the market slowed a bit, it was ok.when the volatility is like this, i am going to consider the 6e for the am, and maybe the cl later after the open
cheers
tuesday
5/17/2010
10trades
+17
made some changes, need to trade with trend, will explain more tomorrow
i have been thinking about trading with the trend, for a while, nothin new, but its just obvious to me, that my chance to succeed ,improves greatly if i do this
i brought back the gmma, with the tct trend.simply, to stay out of the middle.no countertrades vs the gmma or tct, unless we are at a pivot, and we dont need to wait for the 123, if we are going to ct, take your best shot.1 shot.2nd ct candle is entry.and a diverg on macd is nice to have
will go into detail more later atm strategy stopped me out too many times with +2 and +3.a waste
when the trade goes +6, my stop goes to +5, and thats it.a profit target of 20 ticks, just toi have it there, will manage trade(gain) manually.if one of those nice fast ones hits, hopefully my + 20 hits, and there you are.it happened yest, on a 2 lot, dropped 30 ticks from my entry in 1 second...thats the cl for ya
The following user says Thank You to bobarian for this post:
5/18/2011
wed fomc day, and oil inventory,
also, july and june 1:1
6 trades +10
1)late entry, bailed,also, missed previous entries.................................................................................be
2)1st pb after break, 4 lanes, i need to focus , as i missed the next one just after this........................+5
3)diverg dt, in an uptrend..bad trade.....................................................................................................-5
4)took the break at top of channel, too extended, but worked..............................................................+5
5)stupid mistake, counter trend, look at 200, also, the ct 123 worked long...........................................-7
6)finally, a runner, 4 lanes..................................................................................................................... +13
the best setups seem to happen, kinda sneaky.watch when the lt is really compressed, try to guage a bias with 3 min, otherwise, the tct is really your bet, if alligned correctly with 200 ma, look for the space to start, and the 3/8ma start to mosy.it would be nice to catch the initial break, sometimes you even get a 123
not a bad day, definately missed some entries, but just starting to dial in the specific entry.i do like this, trading with the trend, finally
i consider going back to using the gmma, a big change, and i am weary.for me , i just want a difinitive area to stay out of.the gmma chart enables me to trade on the correct side of the 200 ma, and just wait for the tct to come around.ive used the gmma before, but i was so obsessed with counter trend plays, that i CHOSE not to focus on trend trading.this took me on a 6 month journey, which, i realize was necessary.,those counter trend plays can work, i just dont want them to be the type of trades i always look for, thus, ignoring these signals.silly me, i was doing pretty much this type of trading many months ago, when i went off and took a sidetrack..oy vay.lots of time
1)good setup, bad execution, had 6 lanes, i just rushed it..untilo price pulls back 6 or 7 ticks, leave entry at bot...-8
2)price coiled off 100 even number, stepup w 123, late by 2 or 3 ticks..nice trade, followed manually, very nicely, just missed +16 profit target....+10
3)bad trade, even tho 4 range looked ok, this was aggressive, thinkin they would tank it to the low..wrong..3min out of order...-5
today, with the contract rollover, i was kinda not into it.but, i figured, see after open how volatility and follow thru..lookin to fund the acct next week, i feel pretty good with how the progress is doin, i will sim for 2 weeksmore, assuming results good, ill probably ease intp cash, and sim also
off tomorrow
week total
19 trades
+24 ticks
+$105 after commiss
"also, been sim trading for 3 months, was in cash prior, but realized, needed more work..now that i have this journal, and im trying to be accountable, the old blood pressure goes up when im in a trade, and im only simmin, mind you"
Right on Bob, I have that same uptight-ed-ness in my sim trades as well. That means (IMO) that you may fair better when you go back to cash. I had been waaaaay to lax in my past simming and my real dollar trades ALWAYS suffered. It was always easy to just re-set my sim account. Hang in there my friend, we shall talk soon, Also, you are right, if you're gonna' do the CL, FOCUS on the CL. I too have tried to do the same thing and failed miserably, so much for multi tasking. Wow, I just realized this was from the first page, oh well it's good stuff anyway.
5/23/2011
monday
6 trades
-4 ticks
ALL COUNTERTREND TRADES TODAY..NO MORE THIS WEEK
if i do a ct trade, computer goes off, and next day also
look at pics, if you have the stomach
the 1st great short was just too fast
the 2nd great short, i lapsed in focus for a split second, and it was gone
now that i know what im lookin for, just be patient, and have those orders in when those consolidations happen, put them just beyond sr channel if u must
also, when 3 min is an obvious trend, and price pulls back to 200 ma on 4 rng, those 123s w trend can be taken
WITH TREND
The following user says Thank You to bobarian for this post:
tuesday
5/24/20113trades
+7 ticks
the main point today, is, i am still getting used to using the 3 min, in accordance with my method on the 4 rng
the pic of the 3 min demonstrates, that the support all morning was tha t99 .30 area.well, the setup was there, the 3 minwas ganging up on that sup, and the gmma throws off some really nice shorts.that i didnt take,,,hmmm.after sitting there all morning, my mind gets dull, and if i am going to stay later, than i need to trade when these signals take place..ok, seriously, when the gmma goes sideways, and is tight, and the 3 min is looking like that, its time to get ready...to be honest, when i have the setup i like, with 4 lanes on gmma, after a consolidation, it is very typical for the 3 min to beon the verge of set up, or setup.this is important.if the 3ma "could be setup" get ready..trust the gmma, and the tct..it works
oh, and no ct trades today
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wed
5/25/2011
8 trades
-14 ticks
stuck in a range all day, as you can see by all the little stops, we just couldnt follow through.as we grinded higher, you see that i stuck with it, but grinding at the days highs, the only winner i had was an early entry.the 3min supported this trend play wholeheartedly, even tho the 4 rng didnt
.look at pic 6, the best trade of the am, which i turned my head for a split second..had one of these on mon too, and it defined my whole day.why??because instead of catching the a trade i wait all morning for, i take b and c trades..that wont cut it..we have to get the a tradeswhen my choice setup is happeningDO NOT REMOVE YOUR EYES FROM CANDLES..6TICK PB AND I PLACE MY ENTRY .i would rather get stopped on an early entry, than miss the trade, take the next pb for a stop.another thing.trade 9 was a pb in a grinding uptrend on the 3min.it threw the 123, and made sense.today was still a win(did i say that?)yes.8 trades with trend, no ct.now, the purpose of looking at every trade, is i can see visually, and review, the characteristics of the setup i look for.as of now, the prefereed a trade, comes from a consolidation, tightening, then an explosion.just because the gmma seperates, doesnt mean high probability.so, we will continue to evaluate, and, heres a thought.i wait for the 1st pb, because it is visual, and the break is confirmed....but....more than not, the initial break isthe bulk of the move, that i miss.so, lets evaluate, and with the 3ma/8ma, and the macd, maybe take some late entries(did i say that?)!!! we watch these every day.maybe, a market order 5 or 6 ticks above channel.we will continue to watch, and, focus..catch those a trades
also, i will be starting a new thread, for the ipad 2 contest.i just have to write some specific rules, which i already have, and they will be for the simple a trade..
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5/26/2011
thurs
5 trades
-15 ticks
touygh day, i see a general theme here.i am waiting gor confirmation, and taking the 1st pb.more than not, in this market, by the time we get that 1st pb, the move is done.ok, with that said, there ARE some examples of 123 trades, with trend.this is where i am struggling.the tiny window of transparency iss there, im not taking it.i see it, and i think, here we go , and wait for the 1st pb, and this week was just not the market for 1st pbs.now, when my mas on 3min are lined up, and the 4 rng sets up, we will look for the 123 .the tct has been pushing these entries to profit.just dont take entries when lt and st are overlapping.there is such a fine line, but, if mas arer correct on 4rng, these have been working.a beautiful pic perfect long was this am around 8 am..this is what i am trying, and forcing..did a good job tranig with trend,this week.problem was, in the context of this market, i was literally chasing.there are plenty of signals for me between 830 and 11am, as i get tired , and start getting impatient when im on comp too long..and the market likes that.also, ive been very busy with the kids, and its been a struggle just to get my journal in, nevermind reviewand i really need it.DOES IT SEEM LIKE ALOT OF THE BREAKS TYPICALLY LAUNC AT OR AROUND THE 200 MA?
6/1/2011
wed
16 trades
+7 ticks
-$10 after commiss
a short summary.the first 2 trades , especially the 1st one, were good, i just need to work on my patience.i actually bailed on the first one, and that was the best setup of the day.the cl, has been tuff lately,it seems like the setups i am trying to wait for are rare, but the market is still giving me things every day.its my job to figure this out, and it can be a hard puzzle indeed.i lucked out at the end of today, got a dt and db that were ttoo good to pass up, and they saved the day.countertrend has its place.the 3min is the key, and i had a few stops today, that were just dumb.also, my bail outs, and the oppportunities i missed, well, thats why im still simming.i didnt miss all of them, however, and in my review, it was not so bad as i thought.plain and simple, mistakes and impatience.i will continue to focus on the lt foldover, with thelt w tr w tr 3min mas correct, and 4rng 200 correct, as they work nicely.such a shame, the 1st trade, and ensuing pbs, would have been the day, and i might have been done.instead, iowent to battle, and got a few gifts in the end
1)perfect setup.hard to believe i could be this impatient, and pass on pbs too.............................be
2)123 w trend.raised stopbad job..................................................................................................be
3)bd sh w tr.....................................................................................................................................+4
4)......................................................................................................................................................-7
5)look at 3 min,...very bad trade......................................................................................................-8
6)123 sh w tr....................................................................................................................................+4
7stupid sh...........................................................................................................................................-8
8)sh off 2oo ma...................................................................................................................................+3
9)lookin for another sh off 200 ma..early............................................................................................-8
10another try sh off 200.....................................................................................................................+3
11 and 12)add,2 shs.............+2 and +5..............................................................................................+7
13)sh bd w tr.3...................................................................................................................................+4
14)bad sh............................................................................................................................................-8
15)diverg db.......................................................................................................................................+10
16)diverg dt..........................................................................................................................................+10
too many mistakes, too many bails early
too many missed ops
6/2/2011
thurs
3trades
+5 ticks
+$35 after commiss
i put gold up today, along side cl, with the ym , as i have noticed the emotion come in lately.
right off the bat, i missed a cl signal, as gold and cl were throwing signals together.oh, and yes, i missed them both.make a choice , on the better one, and dont be silly.if price is rippin, 1 market only
obviously, my charts look different, as i put the slingshot(gmma)and included it on my entry ch, so no more lookin at 2 charts.thanks ray, this is very helpful
1)the entry ch is ok, and i missed original entry.problem was the 3 min not agreeing.bailed...................-1
2)missed the 123 stepup, and went long into a sloppy dt. tct was slopin well tho, but not enough.........-4
3)missed this gc initial short, but the 1st pb was good, 6lanes................................................................+10
i havent had the time lately, to really review my journal, and 16 trades yest was silly.the 2 gifts i got at the end of the day ,after trying to figure out the chop, smartly, i shut it down.11 am, and thats it
frustration is creeping in, as i keep missing the 1st entry, and get left with the scraps
WHEN THE 3 MIN IS SETUP, ALWAYS BE READY
i say frustration, because i am missing the easy ones..gotta focus on the small bits of transparency..gotta gotta gotta.be specific, is what jay yu would say.and dont complain
so here it is...we are focussing on the 3min, to be setup.then we are looking for the bowtie on the long term(lt) traders to occur, and what is the tct doing?are we on the correct side of the 200ma on 4 rng?price will use the tct as a pivot when we are approaching the bowtie, so , in a short, look for price to coil down from a desc tct, and possibly 200ma,might get a 123 here, andthe tct might be above the lt.that is important, because , if we puta short just below the channel, this will pull the tct into the v.there, is the 1st entry, which we have been missing, then, look for the 1st pb
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6/3/2011
friday
3 trades
+19 ticks
+$175 after commiss
1)3min was setup, couldnt get the original fall, even w 123, too tight,1st pb,almost a stop.....................+10
2)3 min still setup,got the bowtie, 123, quick short...................................................................................+5
3)diverg dt, price overshot 100, 1st red candle, lousy fill on gain................................................................+4
i started to really focus on the chart with only mas, and no candles.this is imperative for me, as , for so long, i start watchin candles, and not mas.tct is king for these setups, and it works.once the 3 min is setup,and price starts to consolidate, as long as we are on the correct side of 200ma, just wait for the tct to appear in the supporting direction of the trend, and try to anticipate the bowtie, with the tct pushing price.as we get close, price will typically use the tct as a sup/res just before the move, which can coincide with the bowtie either about to happen, or, a small space allready there.this is so subtle, but the key is, with the 3min setup, we allready have a bias, and as we enter , we know if price pulls back, we have the tct as backup
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look at pics , for trades.
the real issue here, is the interpretation of the 3min, and i am starting to formulate the rules , and i think this will really help.look at the notes on the pics.in particular , p[ay attention to the slopes of the 5 and 15 ma.if the 15 ma is flat, we can justify an overshoot, especially, when the 5min is sloping correctly.these are very important, because the moves tend to take off, as it seems that they are the origin of the move
more later
$+75 after commiss,
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tuesday
6/7/2011
3 trades.+17 ticks
continuing with the plan, and really focussing on the tct , and trading w trend.missed a few nice ones today, so fast..i must have those orders in, atleast below ch, when we are setup, as the cl can really go.ive had the ym up, and the cl has been moving with it.i find this annoying, , but smart to atleast be aware of what the ym is doing.2 trades stand out today,the a trade which i missed, and trade 3m which was what i am really lookin to do.the consolidation, then the quick , sneaky bit of transparency..boommm.im so glad i caught that 3rd trade, because even tho the other 2 trades were w trend, the tct wasnt with us.totally different trade. on #3, even tho i left all that on the table, the point is, i had maximum backup, when i pulled the trigger.very good entryfunny thing is, they are sneaky.the ym was at rers, but was in the maybe state of goin higher, i almost missed it, as it was qwick and sneaky.
+$155 after commiss
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the method is working nicely, now, i just have to get better at execution.when it speeds up, i have a hard time, scrunching charts, and moving them up and down, i miss trades..not complaining, tho.there are enough each day that i can catch.today was clearly an uptrend in the am prior to the invent report.i log in here, to get my pics up, and have some dialogue to reflect on as times go on.since i started this journal, there have been plenty of changes, but , happily, not for some time.i honestly feel i have a good approach now, and have finally kicked the countertrend trading.i will take a few here and there, but i like cts when it is an obvious one, when i dont have to think about it.i will say, that i now photocopy some of the days action, some with trades , some with missed trades, and review every night, and during day if i can.this has been so helpful, because it is enabling me to see clearer, and react quicker, just from the repetition.today should have been a 400 to 500 day, but it was green, and i know enough, to be content that i caught some of the waves.
+$150 after commiss
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6/16/2011
thursday
13 trades
+ 27 ticks
i havent posted since last week, i think.i made some changes, i took off the 3 min, and the tct...again.i find that, the setups on my entry ch, the 4 rng, speak for themselves.i have been talking myself out of too many trades, by looking at the 3 min.i must say, this has been an angry week for me. i am a firm believer, that in order for me to succeed, i have to act quicker, and not react to missed trades.getting angry and frustrated, is just a sign, that im not ready.my results over the past 2 months have generally gotten better, and they need to continue.i make copies of the days action, and mark out the trades, and there are still too many missed.its so easy to do this in 20/20 hindsight, we all know that.i have been studying as much as i can,because i need to recognize these setups quicker.thats really the problem.there are plenty of opportunities every day with the cl.the studying is definately helping, and today was a good day.there were 2 beautiful trades that i cant believe i missed.no need to post charts now, this is really about staying focussed , and not losing perspective.frustration and anger, are pointless and useless, and counterproductive.i just need to work harder
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6/21/2011
i havent been consistent with my posting, but nevertheless, have been working much more, studying, analyzing, reviewing, oh...and getting the sh%&$# kicked out of me the last 2 days.gave all of my gains back, funny, i recall saying i thought i was getting it together, and being happy.the cl has been tuff, but it is me, gettin off track.luckily still simmin, and, frankly, trying to just stay focussed .i have some off time comin up, and im ready for a break.tomorrows another day
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wed
6/22/2011
9 trades, -9 ticks cl
back to business.man what a drag.mon and tues , i lost my mind.literally.20 trades each day..or more.today was kinda weird, as were mon and tues.it feels as tho the follow thru is just shakey.of course, there were a few that were just a little too fast for me.i started doing market replay, to practice a little.i will start posting charts again soon.have some vaca over the 4th of july
cya tommorrow
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thurs
6/23/2011
wicked crazy fast selloff day
the am was so fast, i got sucked in, and got tossed a little bit.one thing ive started to notice, is my trading tends to be better once things have settled down a bit.this was apparent for a while, but yest i had a strong finish, albeit a red day
today, after 23 trades, i managed a pos 16 ticks, and, i never crossed the - $250 mark, which for now , trading 1 contract, is my threshold.also, i finished today strong, really focussed on the slingshot, 2oo ma, and really the 3/8ma setups, all trades with trend today.i think mon and tues was just some impatience surfacing, as i really want to get this thing into cash.i need to accept the fact that, grinding out positive $100 to $200 days is really where i need to be, until i can do that consistently, i really dont need any other goals.its not fancy, or pretty, its just working .
i will say, that although i got off track mon and tues, i recognized it much quicker this time, and wed, i was really relieved to get back to business.dont ask me what happened.its ok tho, i was kinda laughin about it today
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Hey Bobarian. Digging the journal. One thing I noticed that you might not be aware of is that some days you have a few trades and do well and other days you seem to trade on tilt and have like 23 trades lol. I am at work killing time and I just crunched some numbers on the last 22 trading days you participated in:
Day | # of trades | Trades profit average
1) 3 trades / +3.66 per trade
10) 3 trades / -1 per trade
17) 3 trades / +3 per trade
15) 3 trades / +1.66 per trade
6) 3 trades / +6 per trade
12) 3 trades / 2.33 per trade
16) 3 trades / +6.33 per trade
18) 3 trades / +5.66 per trade = Average profit of +3.45 ticks with 3 trades intraday
2) 4 trades / +3.25 per trade
3) 4 trades / +7 pts per trade
13) 5 trades / -3 per trade
9) 6 trades / +1.66 per trade
19) 6 trades / +3 per trade
11) 6 trades / -1.5 per trade
12) 8 trades / -1.75 per trade = Average profit of +1.23 ticks with 4-8 trades intraday
21) 9 trades / -1 per trade
7) 9 trades / -.11 per trade
8) 10 trades / +1.7 per trade
5) 11 trades / -1.9 per trade
4) 12 trades / + 2.25 per trade
20) 13 trades / +2.07 per trade
14) 16 trades / + 2.28 per trade
22) 23 trades / +1.43 per trade = Average profit of +1.19 ticks with +9 trades intraday
These are just some numbers and you can get numbers to say anything, but I personally think you might be overtrading every now and then. Based on what I see, you make twice as much money with 3 trades a day then you do with 4 trades a day and three times as much than when you make +9 trades a day, (and that is before I factor in commission costs) Just something you might want to keep in the back of your head for the future...
Anyways, I enjoy the journal, and I am definitely subscribed. Keep the trades coming!
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thanks bremudan option, and yes, youre observation is correct.i titled hard mon and tues.i do realize the low tick avg of my winners, and this reflects my atm strategy.typically i have a 6 +5 stop gain, and a profit target of 10.recently, i started to switch around again, with a 5 +2 , to give it room, and a 16 tick stop gain.ultimately, the 6 +5 , with the 10 tick stop gain has worked the best.in the 3 months that i have had the journal, i have made some big changes, and the pics reflect that.my goal was to dial in specific , hi % entries with the trend.i have finally shed the countertrend impulses, which was necessary.the reality, is , my trading in general, has gotten better, but still needs work.too many missed trades, usually because the cl is too fast at the moment, or i just miss the trade.all i can do at this point is work harder, stay focussed, and no more tilting!i grinded out 3 weeks of decent tradind, and gave it back in 2 days.the market loves that.for now, i will continue trading 1 contract, and will do so until i go back to cash, and continue in a positive way.again, thanks for the comment,bob maughan
ok, back for monday
6-27-2011
6 trades
+9 ticks
afew missed opportunities, i dont really regret any of the trades, so thats good.i have been spending some time in the cl room, which i like.for a while , ive been goin back and forth with the 3min and 5mibn for my long rtange ch.today, i tried the 13 range, and i think it gives a better in dication of trend, that is usable.we will see,m 1 day doesnt draw conclusions, so, i will use it this week.i did miss a nice ct, i just dont really have a good entry for it.with the 13 range , it would have been clearer.this week, i would like to just grind out some gains, and take a break next week for the vacation(i will have my copies of charts tho, which i will study)
also, bermudan did some work, on my results, and they speak for themselves...the days that have 20 trades, tend to not end well.thanks bermudan, i had over 40 trades on mon and tues, and that was just a tilt.new week, no problem.got some pics again, will try to keep up with them.my boys turned 3 this month, and its impossible to do my journal with them here, as they break my chops like there is no tomorrow, and, they are potty training, so i got that goin for me!i guess the distraction is good tho, because at this stage of my trading, all tho cautiously optomistic, i know the perils of dwelling on charts for too many hours a day(atleast for me)
peace
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6/28/2011
5 trades +7 ticks
changed my atm to 4 /be,getting a full stop after market goes +4 , we will try this for now.so many times, i go 6 +5, and leave alot on the table.my profit target for now is 10 ticks.
today, 1st trade was a gift to the market, same as yest.had 2 be, 1 +10, and a +5.
a tricky day, as we had mostly fractured setups, which are more risky.i did miss a few, and i am starting to get used to the 13 rng, when we get a setup on 13 rng, look to be aggressive on 4rng.cl was folowing ym.today, which is annoying.i like the action off of the 13 rng setups, and i got stopped on 1st trade, i thought i had enough room to squeeze it, went +4, then -8.no problem.
pretty slow all together
check the pics
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wed
6/29/2011
8 trades, +17 ticks
today was pretty wild, im still dialing in the 13 rng, and i like it
when the 13 rng sets up, i need to be aggressive on the 4 rng
boy, i wish i took more trades before 10 am, as the news just turned everything into a grind.my a setup, which i did a few times today, yielded much more than i took.i copied, as usual, todays action, and will study this setup exclusively.i only had 1 full stop, took a +7 and fat fingered that to a -1
my atm strategy wasnt kicking in correctly for some reason.anyway, another typical day, grinded my way to a small profit.had a 12 tick winner, which was some lucky slippage.market got real fast for a few, and i sat on my hands until it slowed a little.we need to be careful around the news, too much emotion.the greece situation affected us too, and i had to watch the ym a little..so annoying
i have identified breakpoints on the 13 rng, which i am finding to be helpful, i will continue to dial in the method, and really try to take my trend trades when the 3ma/8ma are good.this really cuts down on the mistakes.also, today , i had some entries, that altho they were ok, they were just b4 the bp on the 13 rng.this definately had an effect on the outcome, as the trades seem to run AFTER they cross the bp, which makes sense
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6/30/2011
thurs,feels like holiday is here already
7 trades, -13 ticks
tuff day, missed a couple, but it was just too slow and tight, nothing was workingstill workin with the 13 r for lt ch.the best entries are when the 3 mas are lined up correctly, including the 200 ma.
while i was at the gym , little thoughts were creepin into my head, maybe try this or that...no.,put that crap out of my head quick.stick with whay we have, and just miss less good entries.you will be fine.still ended the week up a tad, so tom im off, and next week is vaca.bringin some copies with me, but not too much
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7-13-2011
wed
2 trades
+15 ticks
back from vacation on monday, time to get back to business.i tried not to think about trading too much, over the vaca, as i needed the break.my 3 yr old twins had a great time at the beach, mom and dad needed a vaca afterwards.im definately feeling the stress with the boys these days(my kids)....lol and, i had to put down my cat, which really bums me out.the reason i mention these personal things, is , they really affect my attitude, and we all know, that in this business , we need a clear head to focus.honestly, i feel like this is the only thing at this point, where i can block out distractions, and i will say, that after all these months, my eyes see alot more in the charts then they did.the same old indicators, that ive had up for so long, and wasnt really paying attention to, are now, and have been , my focus.i had some long range charts, and they had the same indicators also.this was a problem, because it seemed, whenever a signal would come up on my entry ch, one of the other charts would seem to point out a reason to pass.the fact is, my atm gets me out with a 10 tick profit, that makes me a scalper.atleast for now, that is the deal, and it works.for a while , i have seemed to be able to grind out 10 to 20 ticks a day, on 1 contract.i just want to be able to look at my chart, and within a split second, know what the situation is, and this is what i now have.the tct is the boss, and if used correctly, keeps me out of trouble, usually.i put up the ym and 6b, because, i find a little comfort in taking trades with them ,because the risk is lower.this month, everyone is going away, and its lookin like i will have the kids by myself, for 4 weeks, and a fifth on vacation with the family.please, somehow get me thru to september!!!the boys start preschool, and hopefully, they might listen to me once in a while, without me having to yell!!
check these charts
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tues
7/19/2011
had like 5 trades, i think
-$60ish,
yesterday, like 5 trades, +$130
today, had a bunch of break evens, and one 6b +11, which was nice.ym and cl were in a consolidation or something, cl hit the d200ma, and the cl entries i took just fizzled.still between cl contracts, and slow summer trading.im not gonna sweat it, tom another day.keep trading with trend, and no tilting please.been so busy, thats why the lack of posting, cl room has been really slow, peace
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thurs
7/21/2011
10trades
-$18.75 after commiss
hmmm, i came up with an interesting idea...only trade 123 entries, where all my mas are correct, and, for the breakouts, ok to take 1st pb, as long as slingshot and mas are good
the red lines(vertical)depict the 123 entries...hmmmi think 1 of my trades today was ok for this.i am looking to further simplify, and develop a method, that is easy to see , and teach.this will help me, i think.i would like to enter mikes next contest, if this indeed does work.am i on track?i suppose, hard to say, when we r in the trenches, and forget to come up for air.discipline bob, .we havent really felt the need to change the charts, since i got rid of all the other time frames.thats good.
also, when i refer to correct mas, that means sloping, not flat.if the tctc is flat, and the 3/8 mas are moving, need to wait.discipline
look at the red vertical entries on these charts
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monday
7/25/2011
4 trades
+$30
not much today, missed a good one, really fast, we will address those, by putting a stop order at the correct level.the cl was wedged between the daily 200ma and the 100 century level.the currencies were not moving,trying to stay disciplined, and wait for the mas to be correct with the tct, and sloping, not flat..also, correct with the 200 ma.my goal , is to adhere to this strategy, as i believe it will limit my trades to a reasonable level, with higher probability.today, in the past , i would overtrade and take losses.also, in the past, i would get pushed around some days, and change things up the next day.we all know the problem with that.the 1 loser i had today wasnt a bad trade, it just failed.stopped me out by 1 tick, but thats the way it goes.check the pics
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7/27/2011
10 trades
-$130
tuff day, as a result of some of the breaks yesterday, i started focussing on the pbs(pullbacks), and for those, we need follow thru.these are not the kind of dys for clean breaks.anyway, i actually consider this a sidetrack, and i caught on, at my last trade, which was a nice winner.the focus of my trades, needs to be entries off the 123 ross hook, when the mas agree with the tct.its as simple as that.they work. even on a crap day like today, they worked.i started doing market replay, which is the best way to practice.just in one day, it has helped,
with the ross hook, when the tct is trending nice, and the reverse 123 prints, usually, i can wait for the next 123, which is with a nicely trending tct, and the mas are typically good.tough week, all in all..why?? because when the market jumps, i jump..this is not the type of trading i want to do, its too emotional.just stick to the easy method bob, get your 2-5 trades a day, and shut it down
no charts today
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