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bobs qwest to attain consistency

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  #891 (permalink)
 bobarian 
whitestone, new york
 
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sept 24..2 trades so far,missed a good one
One..eurjpy...failure at sd3 hod,close below yvwap..pb to yvwap gets me short...too bad, got to my 2nd scale of 20 pips, but didnt fill.I guess i should have checked the news, draghi speaking...whateva...b/e on second scale
two....short on eurusd,,failure at hod,sd3.Closes below yvwap. pb to yvwap gets me short...once again, got 1st scale(10 pips)and b/e on 2nd....Draghi speaks.

missed long on usdchf.closes above yvah/sd-1.Pb to this level gets me long.That would have also gotten 1st scale, b/e on 2nd.......................On the mgmt of these trades.Noone enjoys seeing their last scale get hit, only to watch it go to b/e because we werent filled.At this time of the morning, im runing around trying to get my kids ready for school.I did see the hesitation of eur jpy at vwap, and i could have closed for +15, but im trying to not get chopped out because of noise...One last thing...Is the weekly vwap supposed to reset at the beginning of the current trading wek?(last night at 17:00 eastern)I have the static line close of last weks weekly vwap, and this can be much different if there is ON activity.


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  #892 (permalink)
 lovetotrade 
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Hey man reading over some of your posts, got me thinking about a couple of things. How are you determining your stop size? I think I saw you mention 10 ticks, is there any rhyme or reason for that? A little while back I pulled up a 30 minute chart alongside the TPO since they are in 30 minute increments, and ran an ADR on the 30 minute chart to see what the average candle size is during the U.S. trading session. Most days it is close to a 15 tick average. So if you are actually trading the 30 minute chart a stop within 15 ticks is actually within the noise, which pretty much guarantees a higher than average amount of unnecessary stop outs. Just wasn't sure if you had thought about that, figured I'd bring it up. One way to counter that, is that if you are aware of that magic number, you can use it to reduce your risk on a trade. For example since I know my number is 15, if I ever get a deep PB in the 15-20 tick range and my direction is still valid, as long as there isn't huge volume associated with it, I will pile in as I know the oscillation against the trend direction has probably exhausted itself, and risk:reward gets skewed in your favor.

Also, something that I use that I feel goes with your fade trades, that you can look into is a TPO momentum reversal. Let's say you are looking to fade an extended move back to value. Well you wait for the market to reverse course instead of fading the highs. So momentum reverses on the TPO and pulls back inside the +/- 1SD, this is now a legitimate fade from that level. From what I have studied it has a pretty high win rate, and the market will usually struggle there before moving against you if it doesn't work out, so you can quickly bail. It either works out or it doesn't, I like those kind of trades. Oh and when it doesn't work, it usually means the market is unusually strong and its worth reversing the trade!

Just some thoughts,
All the best.

Rule number one in the markets is to never lose money. Well since that isn't realistic, I say if you're going to lose some money anyway then lose small, but when you win, give it all you've got and win big!
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  #893 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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lovetotrade View Post
Hey man reading over some of your posts, got me thinking about a couple of things. How are you determining your stop size? I think I saw you mention 10 ticks, is there any rhyme or reason for that? A little while back I pulled up a 30 minute chart alongside the TPO since they are in 30 minute increments, and ran an ADR on the 30 minute chart to see what the average candle size is during the U.S. trading session. Most days it is close to a 15 tick average. So if you are actually trading the 30 minute chart a stop within 15 ticks is actually within the noise, which pretty much guarantees a higher than average amount of unnecessary stop outs. Just wasn't sure if you had thought about that, figured I'd bring it up. One way to counter that, is that if you are aware of that magic number, you can use it to reduce your risk on a trade. For example since I know my number is 15, if I ever get a deep PB in the 15-20 tick range and my direction is still valid, as long as there isn't huge volume associated with it, I will pile in as I know the oscillation against the trend direction has probably exhausted itself, and risk:reward gets skewed in your favor.

Also, something that I use that I feel goes with your fade trades, that you can look into is a TPO momentum reversal. Let's say you are looking to fade an extended move back to value. Well you wait for the market to reverse course instead of fading the highs. So momentum reverses on the TPO and pulls back inside the +/- 1SD, this is now a legitimate fade from that level. From what I have studied it has a pretty high win rate, and the market will usually struggle there before moving against you if it doesn't work out, so you can quickly bail. It either works out or it doesn't, I like those kind of trades. Oh and when it doesn't work, it usually means the market is unusually strong and its worth reversing the trade!

Just some thoughts,
All the best.

Thanks for the input! I usually try to fade the highs for instance, if there is confluence, and we are in the the 2sd.If the 30 min candle runs away ,like a hammer, i will usually put a limit order so that the market has to reach up to my limit for the short fade,and then my stop is just above the highs.The limit order will typically give me 10 ticks of risk which is above the hod.Sometimes the market just runs away, and i miss he trade.I have tried for many years to use a quick chart to get a better entry, before the 30 min closes.I just have never consistent success.Usually, getting chopped up in the noise.On the 30 min, many times that reversal candle at hod/lod can hold for atleast 1st scale.The hod/lod fades at confluence are very visible.Obviously, i would love to catch a ride to these levels, but those trades are really hard for me to see,as of yet.

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  #894 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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sept 25
one trade today in the audusd that i wasnt thrilled with ..3 hours and i just scratched it..it gave 1st scale after that ...oh well.I have the weekly vwap levels up, and its alot to digest.Im going to watch and try to see if i can grasp order flow a bit better.As of now, the fades from hod/lod are really all i see.I would like to trade to them with order flow.Today was the kind of day where i felt myself scratching my head.i think it was just really rangy for the most part.There were 2 other trades that were acceptable, but i was driving the kids to school.Also, im putting up the sup/res lines that Grantx emphasizes, as price does tend to observe them.These are on the 4 hour chart, maybe i can get an entry here and there from them..and the prev weeks hod/lod.Confusing day today

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  #895 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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sept 26
posting some pics of trades that make sense.These are ideas that i realized in the past , and sorta moved on from.One is for a trend day trading away from value.The other is a fade trading back towards value.Its been a frustrating week, and there have been way too many changes.Also, im looking to get some part time work after i drop my kids off at school.I can trade from 5am to 9 am, and that is fine.It would be different if trading was working well.Usually, 11 am it slows down, and i have way too much time on my hands!

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  #896 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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sept 26
one more trade.Mis timed it a bit.Fading can be disastrous, and the 3rd time worked.Almost got stopped at the highs, regardless.Slowing down here for FOMC

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  #897 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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sept 27
only got 1 trade today, and got ticked..yep, im gonna have to place my stops farther out..The other 2 setups i was not here...driving my boys to early band.good volatility today, and all 3 setups were moving away from value.Wish i could have capitalized

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 bobarian 
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oct 5
A) 30 min was bearish when i came in at 5am.ADR had plenty of room to the downside.So, a pb to sd-1/60 ma with a 5min sell candle gets me short.I did see the 5min DDB.I noticed the 1min DDB(perfect) after.At LOD, i can take this fade,sl below LOD.I noticed the 21 and 60 getting tighter, and i noticed price grabbing onto the 21 ema...Why did i hold? The 30 min was a sell to me on this pb.So with all this being said, there are 2 questions.
1)at what point can we start to think a temporary bottom has been found? First, look at the 30 min buy candles at LOD.My initial thought, is we shoulsd test the lows before heading higher.The reason i dont target the 21 ema for pb is because we had 30 min buy candle.This automatically puts pb at sd-1 for me...60 ema was there as well.Second, is the perfect DDB on the 5min..............So once again, why did i hold after seeing price clinging to the rising 21 ema?Simply put, i learn better when i see these scenarios through.I use this as a learning experience,and thats it.Also, at this point,would i consider going long on the pbs to the rising 21ema?Maybe in the future.In this scenario, the DDB on the 1min at LOD was the trade for me.Seeing that trade develop would have been a pleasure.The way price bounced between 21 and 60 ema, while 21 ema was rising, was perfect.But, as i said , at this point i wasnt thinking about a long there.....allthough, by that point on the 30 min we had 2 consecutive buy candles.Testing the lows never happened......................as i ramble.....going forward, i should consider taking the long on a pb to the rising 21 ema(keep in mind that the 3 emas are alligned for short still).First of all, we dont always get a 1min buy signal at lows, and more times than not, we are just fighting the trend.So why consider a long at 21 ema with a pb/buy candle(5min)?Again 2 reasons...30 min buy candles at lows and 5min DDB.

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 bobarian 
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oct 8
selloff this am b4 i got up.
1)Continuation short at 21 ema..nice trade still room in ADR
2)didnt take this valid trade...wake up still room in ADR
3)Last chance short at 60 ema/sd-1/ylod. Why did I scratch? Price started clinging to 21 ema, also, ADR reached for day, buy candles on 30 min..ugghh this is a tricky trade!
4)Long at ADR 2o low..this area last week was very good for entries.Essentially ,ADR has been reached, and we got a buy candle after getting into this area...Why did I scratch?After going 15 ticks(pips), i wasnt taking a sl.As we see, price came down,and coiled again in this area , worked nicely...oh well

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 bobarian 
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