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bobs qwest to attain consistency
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bobs qwest to attain consistency

  #611 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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IT WORKED WELL ENOUGH!
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  #612 (permalink)
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Wide double tops and double bottoms have been a bit confusing...this might help..Look to the higher time frame.If the wide db is on the 1min, 5min obviouisly needs to agree.Follow down and look for a TL break entry, and make sure on zero cross we are breaking above prev pb high as well.

Same for a wide db on 5min.Make sure 15min agrees, and use the same technique on the 1min(TL break above prev pb high as well.This should lessen the chopouts

Price should be very close to left bottom(top), or beyond
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  #613 (permalink)
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2/28 friday
we need to be wary of trading vs
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  #614 (permalink)
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instead of trying to
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IF TRADING VS AUP/DOWN,THERE NEEDS TO BE A GOOD 5MIN IMMED DEV.OTHERISE, JUST WAIT FOR A PULLBACK AND RESUME CORRECT DIRECTION WITH SIGNAL.COUNTERTREND ENTRIES FOR AUP COVER AT ORH.FOR ADOWN, COVER AT ORL,TODAY DIDNT EVEN GET TO ORH…20 to 30 ticks is fine


Last edited by bobarian; February 28th, 2014 at 06:49 PM.
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whether one wants to use ACD/IB or whatever,over time i have come to realize that after the open, there is typically a period where the market is trying to get its bearings on where to go.Also, the opening price relative to the previous days range/value and close comes into play.Alot of traders come up with variable scenarios depending on where we open and what to do bases on that…..also, pivots that may come into play…basically a roadmap.

Thinking out loud here, i think this process is smart, because it gives us a plan, and hopefully keeps us out of trouble.Staying out of trouble i think could be more important than trading the best signals for me at this point.

At the end of the day, i want to see 2 things.Trade the correct signals/avoid the false signals.Looking at friday 2/28,the cl trade i took was good, as we did not have aup/adn yet,and we opened intrarange.Also, don't forget about about London/Asisn levels.
However, the nq and cl trades were not good.The 1st nq trade wasn't oo bad, but thats the wrong answer….we want good trades.

Also, with aup across the board, we had aups.ADX was rising on all.I should have been focussing on longs.Even the shaky long signals have a better chance than counter trend shorts..The cl had a long signal in the late lunch hour.Keep in mind, when there is aup, we are looking for a pullback long.We have no idea where this will happen.Cl ail let us know, and we need to be patient.The shaky double bottom long occurred at worl and pink TL i drew which was the level cl shot from at inventory report.Is this important?maybe/maybe not.But thats what i have for confluence with aup.Price was above orh by about 15 ticks….this i believe is significant.If price is hanging about above orh towards end of lunch, on aup day, that is info to recognize.The shaky long was the best trade of the day…...….which i missed.

Throughout the day, there are many 5min convergences,with 1min divergences.These are not to be considered on aup/adn days.Perhaps exhaustion mimed divergences on both 5min /1min can be considered.At this point, convergences can be dangerous for me, so tread warily .They work well,imo, on range days.Again, the important thing is to not miss the correct trades.Kep in mind, being aggressive is good, but needs to be in the correct context.

Regarding aup/adn days…..Instead of making them a tough grind, relax and just go with the flow.Look at adx.Isnt it easier with this one sided info to just forget about shorts and focus on longs.Think about it.Most days are rotational, and require constant monitoring and thinking…Aup/adn days don't.Should be easier…….Adhere to these rules, and relax.

So, going forward, i have taken everything off except cl/nq/ym.This is really a lot to look at, and i am missing signals.
here is a simple plan
…………where do we open in relation to pref days range/close
…………Where do we open in relation to London /Asian ranges.
…………Does 15min have a possible TL to launch…these breakouts /downs an lead to trend days
watch adx….can we be headed towards above 25?30? step up adx?
…………Watch for failed aup/dn before OR is formed.Use immediate signals only in beginning of day.London h/l/m and asian h/l/m and previous dayh/l/c
…………Big OR could be range day….smallOR watch for launch…stacked mas
…………after OR, if launch is possible, 1min divergences can be quick,and not obvious.adx might have step up.

Immediate divergences on 5min are safest.Before or is formed,watch for dt/db on 1min where 5min fades .Because of volatility off the open,typically price not waiting around for clean 5min divergence.This will appear like a 5min convergence, but its not.ALWAYS draw out head and shoulders(rev h and s)on 1min AND 5min.The quick 1min divergences with 5min fade away divergence will typically show a 1min h and s in some way.but, we should be aggressive and take the 1min dt/db…the head and shoulder (1min) entry is confirmation and possible add….and 5min will look (fade) even better.

BE AGGRESSIVE WITH CORRECT TRADES

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instead of trying to
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IF TRADING VS AUP/DOWN,THERE NEEDS TO BE A GOOD 5MIN IMMED DEV.OTHERISE, JUST WAIT FOR A PULLBACK AND RESUME CORRECT DIRECTION WITH SIGNAL.COUNTERTREND ENTRIES FOR AUP COVER AT ORH.FOR ADOWN, COVER AT ORL,TODAY DIDNT EVEN GET TO ORH…20 to 30 ticks is fine

SIMPLE ENOUGH…ADX DOES NOT ALLOW A SHORT…LOOK FOR LONGS..OR NOTHING

WHILE THERE CAN BE COUNTERTREND ENTRIES ON AUP/DOWN DAYS,THERE NEEDS TO BE A 5MIN AND 1MIN DDT/DDB.BE REALISTIC.IF YOU WANT TO GO VS THE FLOW,NEED A GOOD REASON….OBVIOUS REASON.

ON THE OTHER HAND…ON AUP DAYS (DOWN)..TREND CONTINUATION DIVERGENCES CAN BE NOT AS OBVIOUS.SO WITH EACH CONTEXT THERE IS GIVE AND TAKE…..VS TREND WE TAKE….WITH TREND WE GIVE.

ALWAYS KEEP IN MIND WHERE WE ARE AT RELATIVE TO LONDON.ASIAN LEVELS.LOOK AT CL BLASTOFF JUST BELOW.THERE WAS A WIDE 5MIN H AND S ON 5MIN,AND FINALLY A 1MIN DIVERGENCE (AND H AND S) ON THE 1MIN.WHERE DID THIS HAPPEN?IN NO MANS LAND? NOPE.LONDON LOW.THIS WAS A "GIVE" SCENARIO .AT TIME OF TRADE, WE HAD JUST GOTTEN INTO C PERIOD AFTER A FAILED AUP ON AN INTRARANGE DAY.C PERIOD MADE HL TO A PERIOD, THUS STARTING EITHER A ROTATIONAL TYPE PROFILE OR BEGINNING OF EXTENSION(WE HAVE NO WAY OF KNOWING AT THIS POINT)ALL WE KNOW IS THERE IS A LONG THAT FITS OUR RISK CREDENTIALS WITH A WIDE 5MIN WIDE DIV (1MIN IMMED DIVERG) AT THE LONDON LOW


Last edited by bobarian; March 2nd, 2014 at 08:05 AM.
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  #617 (permalink)
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some thoughts about the IB, or 1st 30 minutes of the market(all)
…….any CLOSE above/below ib range is significant.This might coincide with aup/down,may not.
……..keep in mind, price will often look above/below previous column, but usually returns within previous column as it closes(except on expansion days)
a)with this said, on range days, with no aup/down, if price gets above previous tpo column, these are good areas to look for our divergences(immediate 5 and 1min)
b)also keep eye on tpo value….again price will probe above/below value,only to return prior to the 30 min tpo candle close.Look for 1 and 5min immediate divergences here,as price returns to value before the 30 min candle close.

Even when the tpo is 1 time framing, it will probe beyond, and pullback.Obviously, we want to look for trades with the trend on breakout/down days.

Gap days are especially reliant on IB range, as we have only london /asian levels to go on.Just because market is gapped, doesn't mean continuation.Although i seem to have a small bias in the direction of the gap, this doesn't mean just trade it blindly.

I need to have tpo for all 3 instruments.

Thank you to Private Banker for his comments about tpo and ib.

WHEN TRADING GAP DAYS, WE WANT TO SEE A BREAK FROM BALANCE

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looking at this pic, the most important aspect is
……..aup
……..adx above 30

i realized the adx and tried short anyway…..if we arent going to be disciplined,what is the point.When this scenario exists…..relax and understand that we do have a directional bias….long.
just be patient.with a long, we look for a some possible levels, but really , nq will choose where this might happen.Now, what we can pay attention to here is a 5min DB,with 1min DB or (and)h and s).This eventually happened at the rth 50% retrace…typical.the 5min was not divergent , but inline at this level……….On this screenshot, it doesnt show the 1min at the the 50% point, but if i remember correctly, there was a 1min ddb and h and s.Keep in mind, at this level(50%),with the days context, we can look for a "give" scenario and take the long.

One last thing.Any consideration for shorts on aup day above London/Asian levels needs to have immediate 5min
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honestly, adx is still rising even at dt at highs…reversal signal here is a "take" scenario, and the short signal is not good enough….so, no short….and relax


Last edited by bobarian; March 2nd, 2014 at 09:05 AM.
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Today, with aup in both indexes, you can look at the continous failed shorts,even with a triple divergent macd.Adx above 30 will have this effect.Towards the end of day adx is has leveled off a bit but still above 30.Look at the 5min macd.If shorts cant break the 1min, look to higher time frames.When 5min macd breaks zero line, ym is history…..a short would carry more risk down there, certainly no dt, but more reasonable with 5min macd cross
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