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bobs qwest to attain consistency

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  #491 (permalink)
 bobarian 
whitestone, new york
 
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12/15/2012
out yesterday,still assessing damage from Sandy.
Today opened just above yest close(cl).Qoutes were screwy today, with the rollover.There was a res area on the 30 min,and we got just above todays OR,where there was a short entry.If i was wrong, would have found out pretty quick
Price came back down to the open,and shot up again,the macd confirms another short,just above OR again.
CL fell hard on this,and basically,down to the ON low.I should also point out that the 2 shorts were just below the ON high.
Waited for pa to pullback to rth vwap,which was pretty obvious.The video goes over the confluence

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  #492 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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11/16/2011
no trades today,very tight range off the open.I had some thoughts,but was looking for a short off the extremes above,and didnt want to play in the middle

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 bobarian 
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Happy Thanksgiving
been so busy,took time from the markets,will be back on Monday

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 bobarian 
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11/27/2012
Tuesday
1 trade.
Cl on the ON spent its time in the upper range of yest profile,and slightly above it.However,we were just below the top of the bracket on the daily,so a reject could fall .But,yest was an inside day,and today ,we opened inside of yest.On the open ,pa immediately rejected off yest hod,and fell,so ,i thought we would be looking for a short,and the question was where.Pa came up to the eth vwap/todays open,which was what i was waiting for.My entry was sloppy,but good enough.Because it was only 1 contract,and we were an inside day, i covered at the ib low,which was todays lod.

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 Private Banker 
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Bob,

Great job in identifying what was developing on the day. The short from VWAP was excellent. A bias to the short side made sense based on what the bigger picture is showing. The market appears to be making probes lower while still remaining rotational. I've seen this occur many times when the market is balancing. It will often start testing lower or higher areas which can be hints as to where the market is trying to ultimately go. The market did the same thing yesterday as well.

In any event, great job. Here's how I saw the session today with some key observations and trade locations.

First the RTH TPO at the open presented a classic go/no go set up from yesterday's high. Taking a short here will immediately tell you if you're right or wrong.



For an overall picture of the day, here's a bar chart showing the entry areas which were confluent with VWAP. You can obviously lean on the RTH VWAP after the first 30 - 60 minutes of RTH but sometimes on wide rotational days, the ETH can be a better guide as posted below. Its really a personal judgment call which is why I watch both and put more weight on the set that is being more engaged. Trend days are obviously better with the RTH however.





Just for added perspective, here's a footprint chart showing the ETH VWAP entry areas as well as the developing value areas.





All in all, a good day. I noted on one of my charts here that it was clear that many traders were getting zapped on that retracement back to the highs. This move was partially fueled by the weak hands. I noted that sellers were selling short in the hole at an unfair price as the developing POC did not shift lower. That's always a heads up that someone is about to get run over by a freight train. On rotational days, the mode for the day is sell resistance and buy support. If you're short biased, sit on your hands until we get back to resistance.

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  #496 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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Private Banker View Post
Bob,

Great job in identifying what was developing on the day. The short from VWAP was excellent. A bias to the short side made sense based on what the bigger picture is showing. The market appears to be making probes lower while still remaining rotational. I've seen this occur many times when the market is balancing. It will often start testing lower or higher areas which can be hints as to where the market is trying to ultimately go. The market did the same thing yesterday as well.

In any event, great job. Here's how I saw the session today with some key observations and trade locations.

First the RTH TPO at the open presented a classic go/no go set up from yesterday's high. Taking a short here will immediately tell you if you're right or wrong.



For an overall picture of the day, here's a bar chart showing the entry areas which were confluent with VWAP. You can obviously lean on the RTH VWAP after the first 30 - 60 minutes of RTH but sometimes on wide rotational days, the ETH can be a better guide as posted below. Its really a personal judgment call which is why I watch both and put more weight on the set that is being more engaged. Trend days are obviously better with the RTH however.





Just for added perspective, here's a footprint chart showing the ETH VWAP entry areas as well as the developing value areas.





All in all, a good day. I noted on one of my charts here that it was clear that many traders were getting zapped on that retracement back to the highs. This move was partially fueled by the weak hands. I noted that sellers were selling short in the hole at an unfair price as the developing POC did not shift lower. That's always a heads up that someone is about to get run over by a freight train. On rotational days, the mode for the day is sell resistance and buy support. If you're short biased, sit on your hands until we get back to resistance.

Thanks Ben,i appreciate the remarks.I think im seeing the context better.After reading through some of Jim Daltons book,i can see he has had an impact on your trading.

What i also realize, is i generally miss the 1st move ,like the short just off the open.However,in the first 2 hours, there are typically 1 or 2 decent trades still.The reason i miss the ones just off the open, i think,is i need more experience with the overall big pic.Im happy tho,as i can see an improvement!Thanks again!

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  #497 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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11/29/2012
1 trade
Day started with a big gap rth,near the top of the daily bracket.I believed that the coil off the vpoc on the ON just before rth open sent this market higher.These types of days arent the norm,and i typically dont jump right in.In this case, there were a few pbs to the rth dvwap,right off the open..yes ..rth dvwap.I was aware of this in real time...The question is, will i trade it in the future.We will see.Luckily,range like rotational days are much more common.I took a short when the dvpoc shifted at 9:24.With the dvah as a ceiling,the tpo had a naked vah from 11/23.I figured , if im wrong, we will find out right away...we did.Ive grown accustomed to the cl observing levels nicely,and today, i didnt feel that was the case.

Also,i want to start being more aware of the developing tpo levels,as they are rth.Typically, i rely on the vol based levels on the rth and ON.

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 bobarian 
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12/3 2012
1 trade
cl opened gap up,into no mans land between the brackets on the daily.The interesting thing is,weve been testing this area,and we actually broke into the higher bracket,briefly.Also,the pbs into the lower bracket,are oinly reaching the halfway point,not even testing the lows.This is a situation of higher lows and higher highs.That is the longer time frame viewpoint.So, expect further tests higher,with the lows making higher lows,in the brackets.

Today, there were a few good trades, and i only took 1,with poor execution.However,i did come to a realization,that im hoping will serve me well,in the future.Typically ,the profile for the cl on an intraday basis,is rotational.With that said,we go into each day,with the rth open,and use the ON data to form a bias on the open.There are typically levels on the ON that come into play ,in the 1st hour of trading the rth.What i want to do,is identify extremes,that have confluence.

I have trained myself,to try not to trade in the middle of the rth profile.This is ,i think in general,a wise rule.However,the cl will often ,within the first hour,start to exhibit extremes,that can have a directional bias.For instance,today,we started with a LONG BIAS.Hwever,towards the end of the 1st hour rth,the dvpoc(also eth vpoc) started to define the upper extreme.So whats the problem?that brought us into the fatter part of the profile.This eventually led to a nice breakdown.

So what do i take from this?try to discern what is developing in the rth,and understand,that as the profile is developing,an extreme can be away from single prints,towards the middle of the profile(obviously,as the dvpoc is in the fat of a rotational day,until price finds a direction

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 bobarian 
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12/4/2012
tuesday
no trades
Cl gapped way down.I have decided to track the vwap,and its deviations ,and try to be much more aware,especially eth off the open.Today,basically, once we broke above the lower 1st std dev,eth,we ran to vwap,and as of now , to the opposing 1st std dev.This makes sense to me,and as i continue to grind along with Market profile ,the pieces are slowly coming together.I find ,that,these days,i am able to discern the big pic more often,and its the execution that ultimately i will also have to dial in.

Why do i need a macd confirmation to take a trade?If i am discerning levels correctly,i should enter at the closest area to the level i can get to.Waiting for the macd puts me away from the level,obviously.I have a feeling this will,to some degree ,work itself out in time.And it will never be perfect

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 bobarian 
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12 /5 2012
wed
1 trade
We spent the ON session between yest poc and just above the hod.So,that would lead me to believe that this was a long bias.However, that is just one piece of the puzzle.Just before the rth open,cl found res at vwap,and then couldnt get above the 1st std dev.A short, pre market( as of now, i dont trade pm).We spent the entire rth am,i was looking short, but cl just couldnt make it up to my entry.Upon the inv rep,we finally got some volatility.We made a new low,then cl came back up to the vwap area(eth) which had big time confluence.
Prev res
eth vwap
eth vpoc
ib high
rth dvpoc
rth dvah
yest cod
a big time gift.i put an order in at vwap,and based on the LL,held for the breakdown.Based on 1 contract,as we got close to yest sing prints, i hugged real close, and took a nice gain.Actually best in quite a while.Slowly putting it togeteher

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