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bobs qwest to attain consistency
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bobs qwest to attain consistency

  #471 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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10/16/2012
tuesday
still trading.Once again,i deviated from the original plan....hmmm.Trade in the direction of the 3min5...it works...do it.If price falls out of bed like today,look for pbs into the 3min5 and 5min5...But,we need to get the 1st and 2nd pbs.Dont take the 3rd because you finally realized this.ugghhh.

Someone slap some sense into me please...follow the damn plan

charts later,my kids get out of school early today

1)just off open,pb to asc 3min5,and asc 1min mas...pass
2)ps(perfect storm) pb to desc5min5,desc3min5,desc1min15...quick,i missed it
3)pb to same desc mas as above,1min breakdown...quick,missed it
4)1min mas cross,pb to 3min5.Overshot flat 5min5 by a few ticks...1st entry in trend change
5)1min mas cross,didnt get pb to 3min5,it just dropped..1st entry in trend change
6)1min mas cross,again,no pb.1st entry in trend change

Today was a total failure.Discipline just not there.My plan is to trade the 3min5 trend changes after the 1min mas cross.Once the 3min 5 ma starts to support the move ,we enter.Pretty simple.I give myself a D today.Why not a F?There were 2 entries that i was trying for ,and didnt get filled.

If i would just stick to these entries,i would be fine.I must say ,im dissapointed in myself.I didnt realize how strong my mind is in redirecting my thoughts.Its amazing,actually.Honestly,im not surprised.

i took the afternoon with my kids to the Bronx Botanical Gardens,as i cant trade with them here.Its just obvious this is a discipline issue.

The only way to address this is to hit it straight on.Take these entries with the 3min5 only...Lets see how i do tomorrow


Last edited by bobarian; October 16th, 2012 at 05:16 PM.
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  #472 (permalink)
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10/17/2012
wed
2 trades so far,both within the criteria that ive been struggling to adhere to.I noted the pullbacks into the sloping mas,which i will watch.Also,there was one missed trade,(blue arrow),as price didnt pb to get me an entry.There were 2 subsequent pbs after that,and i have to be honest,i am reluctant to enter having missed the original entry.
So,a much better day.There were no missed trades due to an error on my part,but pa didnt come to my entry.


Also,in my past posts ,the charts will note obvious entries on a sloping 5min 5/3min5.However,in real time,these mas havent printed yet,so visually,i need to rely much more on the sloping 1min15.(today saw two pbs that are typical of this).After the fact,its easy to see,but live,its not the case.This is something i worked out yesterday in my replay,as i was dissapointed on so many obvious trades that were being missed.Nothing is perfect.If we enter at or near the sloping 1min15 in pb scenarios,the 5min5 and 3min5 will ubdate,but we wont see it until after the trade

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1st entry,as per the rules,pa crossed the mas on 1min,and pb to 3min5.from poe(point of entry),pa went 40 ticks
2nd entry didnt get filled,went 45 from poe.
3rd entry,didnt realize we were at the news,otherwise would have flatttened.

I give myself an A today,for trading the plan,and sticking to it.I will continue to watch the pbs when in a trend,and evaluate.The plan for tomorrow is to do the same as today


Last edited by bobarian; October 17th, 2012 at 03:00 PM.
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  #473 (permalink)
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10/18/2012
5 trades
I stuck with the plan today...hey,2 days in a row.

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1)long,gave me +10,then gave a reversal signal...-10
2)long...+20
3)short,good trade,just before news,cl spiked(cl loves to do this).Would have been full winner,rev sig tho..-5
4)long..very nice,db with a stepup,off bot tl on 30 min..+20
5)short,at edge of rth profile,spooked me out..feels like a meltup...rev signal....-5

+20 ticks total,the last trade was after 11:30,which i rarely do...i like the cl till about 10:30 eastern.Rollover approaching,so vol low.

As far as my stops.They are really based on a reversal signal.Its a bummer when the rev fails,and i take a sl when it ended up a winner.However,for now,if i get a reversal signal, i will look for a cheaper exit.

The goal is to get consistent,a preserve capital.There are plenty of good trades a day typically,so lets stay focussed,and stick to the plan..20/20 r:r is what i have now.1:1.It is not my intention to trade 1 contract forever,but thats another topic,which will be addressed WHEN i stay focussed and execute correctly in sim,and do the same live.

Another good day,sticking with the plan...it is easier to do this,less stressful.


I just added the 5min ch from this am.The perf storm setup,with the 5min5/15 consolidating,very close together.The 1min and 3min both gave perfect signals ,for a long,in the mid of todays rth profile.Perf storms ,we look for more than 20 ticks,AND we dont look for rev signals.It was late in the am,i kinda tuned out,and it snuck up on me.The confluence was there tho.The 30 min supported the long,also.Stay alert.At this point,i am thinking on taking every 3min setup,except for a ps rev.Im just not going to cherry pick the right entries..


Last edited by bobarian; October 18th, 2012 at 05:03 PM.
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  #474 (permalink)
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10/19/2012
friday
cl12/12 took over 11/12.,split vol day.
1 trade today,a short.It was a breakdown entry, which i dont prefer.I fat fingered the exit,for +12,instead of +20.Ok,it happens.The trade was just at the dow open,which i dont prefer either,but,if pa came down to my entry, it was a valid trade.

I spent alot of time on MP this summer.Admidst coming and going often,i statrted to get the idea, although, i would say my level is entry at best with it.Today,cl opened above the ON value area and the Rth value area from yest close.This is very bullish.At the open,i was looking for a long,but didnt get filled .I didnt realize the implications of the MP data until jedi mentioned it in the trading room.I was like,oh yeah......My setup is pretty simple,and because of my inability to stay disciplined, i need to stick with it..it works.I got off track earlier in the week,and was very dissapointed with myself.

So,the goal is,to stay with the plan,but also try to be more aware of the MP implications,when something like today for example,comes into play.The market gives little glimpses of transparency,which i seem to miss often.Im not going to beat myself up though,as i did a nice job of recovering from the lapses early in the week.The week wasnt great,but i did grind my way to a small profit in sim i believe.Chart soon.
Also,there was a nice short setup,but it was after 11 am,and i made it a point to stop before then.Silly rule?Maybe,but it seems to me i do better before then.Besides, typically, the cl gives 2-5 decent signals by then
Chart coming

i uploaded another pic,using only the 1min and the9 range mp ch.I spent the summer getting aquainted with mp,while i was running around with my kids.There is no doubt mp is a valuable tool.I decided to simplify this month,because the mp is still a work in progress,but also,because im struggling with putting it all together.This has lead to bad discipline/hesitation/indecision.Although i had the mp ch the whole time,i really need to be more aware of it.Especially on trend days.Also,the vol ladder is useful when we get to these entries...but again,more stuff to watch.
I think it would be smart to not only post my entries on my min charts ,as i did this week,but also include the mp rth chart,to see if and where there was any confluence.
In most instances, the mp entry is a much earlier entry,but,without confirmation.One thought i had,was to just be more aware of the mp,and try to visualize the simple setup ive been using.
For now,i just need to stay on course with the discipline im working on.The method i am using ,at the end of the week,should have me positive.Its not exciting,and thats just fine.Much less stress.


Last edited by bobarian; October 20th, 2012 at 09:32 AM.
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@bobarian, terrific work with your journal.



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  #476 (permalink)
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@bobarian, terrific work with your journal.



Mike

thanks Mike,i appreciate it.Just finished watching the tape reading webinar..good stuff.Looking forward to panda warriors webinar.

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  #477 (permalink)
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10/22/2012
monday
cl looked very weak on the 30 min,and we opened just above fridays val.Just off the open,there could have been a short at the ib high,which i passed on.It made sense,from a trend perspective,but i prefer to let the market go for a few minutes,as the volatility can chop.
I have the mp chart up with the vwap(rth),and i will continue to trade the method i have been using,while watching the mp chart to get a better feel for good entries.Literally,its trading a method that needs confirmation vs a method that gives entries based on levels.Obviously,the confirmation style will be away from the mp entry.This is important.Gradually, my goal is to get a better understanding of the big picture.
1)i passed on this,as i thought the mas werent setting up so well.In hindsight,the trend was down ,and i knew that.
2)ct trade ,got the signal,had room.+20
3)trade went without me.At 2nd std dev vwap,cl was trending down,somewhat rangy...short bias
4)The 1st elipse...mp trade.Pa overshot 1min mas,and 3min mas,and couldnt get past 5min15.The important thing here is the rth vwap and dvpoc
5)2nd elipse.Pa againn testing 5min15,but also dval and ib low.not much left though.

we did have a long signal,but at lunch,and those desc tls on the 5min,ill pass.

1 trade for the day...
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  #478 (permalink)
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10/23/2012
tuesday
cl gap way down on rth open,i failed to draw my TL on the 5min,and i missed the short of the day.Actually,i did take a short,but ,as per my method,i didnt get a good enough fill.This is something that has been on my mind for a long time.Minute charts vs range charts.Obviously,the range charts will setup quicker.The cl typically reaches for levels.These levels can be overshot.The goal would be to get a signal as close to a pivot as possible.The minute charts cant do that.Typically,a tradable level will be a sloping TL,or a mp level.Today was rangy in the first hour,and that can spell real trouble for my method using the 3 min.The tone was short,but ,waiting for the 3min confirmation gets me a fill in the middle of the profile,which can be very noisy.
Heres the thing,mas on a minute chart are calculated by time with pa.Mas on a range chart are calculated by pa only.This clashes imo.However,in an effort to stop changing charts,i am reluctant to switch.And besides,they do give me a guideline...
i believe i am headed towards focussing on the TL levels and mp levels,and i just have to keep working on that,to get better.There werent any decent setups with the minute charts,all these shorts are off the 5min Desc TLs.I didnt take any of them.On the mp ch,just off the open,pa came up to this res area,which alligned with the dvah.Each time,it was rejected.Later in the day,it was the vwap which was the resistance.I have marked the macds,which give a little step down.In the future ,i hope to not have to rely om ma crosses,or macd hooks.I would prefer to just use the TLs,ranges,and play the extremes.


Last edited by bobarian; October 23rd, 2012 at 09:51 PM.
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  #479 (permalink)
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10/25/2012
thurs
3 trades
2 after 11 am..both stops
cl opened high in yest range,but there was that 30 min desc tl which it had to get by.The 1st test of the tl failed,but found sup at yset ib low.That 1st entry was a very good entry,confluence noted on pics.Actually, we could have taken the long off the ib low from yest,as there was a sig.Price reached up towards this level,and a 2nd short should have been taken,as there was a sig.I talked myself out of it,thinking pa was just too tight,the whole time thinking we were going to break the sup.

we broke support in a big way,and dropped to yest val/tpo val area...a good place for a bounce.Based on that, i should have been finished.I wanted to look for a sh off the vwap,but didnt wait for that even..And, i forgot this ams trap door,which might be a good short,but now we are above vwap...

Ive said it...any edge i might be developing drastically changes during and after lunch...im just not good enough ,imo.So,although i saw the market well today,i executed badly

the first trade ,imo,was vg.I passed on the next one...bad choice big time

im working on seeing the big pic with the mp levels/tls/etc.A slow process...but its there
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bobs qwest to attain consistency-cl-12-12-30-min-10_25_2012.jpg   bobs qwest to attain consistency-cl-12-12-6-range-10_25_2012.jpg  
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10/26/2012
friday
2 trades
today was the first time that i traded the big picure correctly in real time.I took 2 trades,and i waited for pa to get to the reject area,patiently.Also,i didnt wait for a macd hook,or whatever.Im so tired of doing that.Its like a silly way to confirm,which isnt necessary.I kinda miss the vol ladder,as i would look for the churn/absorption at the reject areas,but honestly,i dont need to add more stuff.

I have been spending the am in the trading room on the homepage,and i am learning from some of the traders there.Following others that are live and successful is fun,and useful.It kinda takes a little pressure off.

will post charts tomorrow,im beat

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