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bobs qwest to attain consistency

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  #421 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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4/19/2012
thursday
just watched to day, and worked out my entry issues.The 1 short i marked out was the trade i was waiting for, and after watching it come and go, decided it was time to get my entries under control.I saw the churn on the 10 momentum, however, waiting for the 10 momo to close puts me far away, and i realized that the 5 mom can give me the entry.In fact, the 5 mom had a vol bar of about 1000 at the very top.A gift.The short entry is just below that red candle.Ive been watching this, all week.I believe(really?)that the 5 mom can give a heads up to the vol churn i am looking for.Just watch it.Any time the 5 mom throws a vol bar of say, 800 or above, and i am at an entry level, and the vol on the 10 mom (vol ladder ) is decent, there you go.In fact, for that matter , any time that 5 mom has a big vol spike, just watch the 5min bars , and how they paint, for a possible heads up.Just be careful not to diddle in the middle too much................................................................................................Ok, enough said on that.I think the idea of this is fine, if it is used in contextsomething i have struggled with.Lets just look for this in the correct scenarios, and give it a go.I hesitate to be too optimistic, so lets just wait and see.....................Will be away tomorrow, hittin the beach with the boys.Peace.The video has more entries, it is long, but i want to use it as a reference for a bit.Peace

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  #422 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
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bobarian View Post
4/19/2012
thursday
just watched to day, and worked out my entry issues.The 1 short i marked out was the trade i was waiting for, and after watching it come and go, decided it was time to get my entries under control.I saw the churn on the 10 momentum, however, waiting for the 10 momo to close puts me far away, and i realized that the 5 mom can give me the entry.In fact, the 5 mom had a vol bar of about 1000 at the very top.A gift.The short entry is just below that red candle.Ive been watching this, all week.I believe(really?)that the 5 mom can give a heads up to the vol churn i am looking for.Just watch it.Any time the 5 mom throws a vol bar of say, 800 or above, and i am at an entry level, and the vol on the 10 mom (vol ladder ) is decent, there you go.In fact, for that matter , any time that 5 mom has a big vol spike, just watch the 5min bars , and how they paint, for a possible heads up.Just be careful not to diddle in the middle too much................................................................................................Ok, enough said on that.I think the idea of this is fine, if it is used in contextsomething i have struggled with.Lets just look for this in the correct scenarios, and give it a go.I hesitate to be too optimistic, so lets just wait and see.....................Will be away tomorrow, hittin the beach with the boys.Peace.The video has more entries, it is long, but i want to use it as a reference for a bit.Peace

Bob,

Just remember what I was saying about watching the ETH VWAP during the first 15 - 30 minutes of the RTH session. As you can see, the high volume churns were because price was retracing to the ETH VWAP. I've attached an ETH chart showing that. You had a great entry there. The volume spike was probably longs getting out and traders scaling out of their entries (including me). Great job though!

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  #423 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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Bob,

Just remember what I was saying about watching the ETH VWAP during the first 15 - 30 minutes of the RTH session. As you can see, the high volume churns were because price was retracing to the ETH VWAP. I've attached an ETH chart showing that. You had a great entry there. The volume spike was probably longs getting out and traders scaling out of their entries (including me). Great job though!

Thanks Ben, that makes sense!I have my 5 mom set to rth, and i have two 5 min charts, 1 rth, 1 eth.It never even occurred to me to do that for the 5 mom.

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  #424 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
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bobarian View Post
Thanks Ben, that makes sense!I have my 5 mom set to rth, and i have two 5 min charts, 1 rth, 1 eth.It never even occurred to me to do that for the 5 mom.

You're welcome! The market can easily trick you which is why it's important to fully understand what may be occurring from multiple perspectives. This was a great case in point. Having a 5 minute ETH chart with vwap will work as well as the periodicity isn't the significant thing, it's the session type. I prefer to have a small ETH 5 Momo chart up as a reference which is incredibly important during the first 30 + minutes of the RTH session. You can most certainly just use the ETH chart as a primary screen however. The only reason I've used the RTH session in the past was mainly to have the correct volume profile, previous high, low and close levels as well as the correct IB levels.

I'm making a slight change to my set up which will eliminate the RTH vwap and std dev bands and fully utilize the developing value areas and VPOC in lieu of vwap. Take a look at my blog for a longer explanation.

Always happy to help!

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  #425 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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4/22
sunday.
I did review of friday.Once again, the daily closed with a dogi.In the am, for the beginning 30 minutes, i will keep a close eye on the eth vwap levels.however, the emerging pvoc,hval and lval are levels i will also be watching............
ForMonday, if we can get back up to the 104.60 area(fri hval), that was a reject area on friday.Also, thursdays hod of 103.37 will be a support to be watched.Of course, the pvoc of 104.41 cant be ignored.Fridays cod was 103.83

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  #426 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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Attachment 70963
4/23/2012
monday
1 trade..net $140 qm
cl gapped down big time, and continued to drop.We found support at the 102 area,with a significant churn.I got long from there at 102.10.Ist and 2nd targets were hit, and we stalled at 102.30s.We have been trying to break higher for some time now, multiple times.So far , an 83 tick range for the day(rth), but really ,smaller than that.Going on the 10th test at the 103.30s level,it finally broke .We will see if they can hold it.102.65 is the hod rth.......................2nd trade , a short at 102.80s level,big churn..it failed...brings me to -$8 for the day.I mention in the video recap, i dont feel comfortable taking a blind short vs the wave up..I prefer to see a red candle on the rth 5mom, especially if the macd looks good.Oh well, stopped out at the top..a logical place, as it was above the previous swing

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  #427 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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4/23/2012
2 trades
-$7.50 net
video recap
i reviewed the video.The first trade was better , because it had allready made a HL,then retraced the big churn area.However, if we wait for a confirmation like that( which could fail also),we will miss trades.The macd was good.I know alot of traders wont take a ct trade until some kind of HL or LH occurs to justify the ct trade.The 2nd trade, i shorted at a level that i was confident in.However , there was no confirmation.I got stoppeed out at the top.Heres the thing...it did give a second signal ,which was a DDT(divergent DT).I had that chart with the macd buried, and didnt catch that.The churn was in the area of my entry.As the cl went higher, it churned big again ,just above.Tricky.I should be watching the 5 min also, seeing how the candle paints..Trade was late in the day, which makes it tricky also?Pa eventually went higher..................hmmmm.Upon further review, once pa broke above the eth vwap(which it had been trying for some time,perhaps looking for a short was not so smart after all.Yes ,there was churn.Also, late in the day, can get funny.I still liked the first trade.I think if anything, a hi vol pb long (if it were offered) would have been better.This however, did not occur.

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 bobarian 
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4/24 2912
2 trades
+155 net
Price opened just above yest close, and shot up to the 104 area.We started to get some good churn, so i got short.1st target was hit, and price came up and took out my stop on the 2nd contract.Not being sure what level we were at in the past, i was thinking that the 104 even number might be resistance.Just as we went higher, we hit more big churn, so i got back in, and both targets were hit.Price then fell to todays eth vwap(close enough)and found support.I thought if we reached the highs again, also the current VAH,i would look for a short again.Price managed to retrace to the current day vpoc,where it was met with big churn.In retrospect, that was the reload area.There was even a 1400 contract vol bar on the 5mom at the high.That was the entry.Price fell from there, finally breaking the eth vwap.The reload was just after 10 am.I am hesitant to go against the eth vwap, but there was plenty of room, so that entry should have been taken.Otherwise, im happy that i stuck with the original entry, and reentered.

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 bobarian 
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4/25/2012
wed
1 trade
1st target hit, bailed on 2nd , just before inventory report.Market was really moving pre market, with a high of 104.50.However, just before the open , cl sold off, and opened just above yest close.We drove up to just under 104, and had significant churn, similar to yest.I decided to go short as the dvah(developing current day vah) stepped above price action,using it as resistance.The question is, do i place a sellstop at that level, or wait until pa hits it and fails?..............im trying to get my entries, so that they are mechanical, and i dont have to think about it as much.................took a short at 1:20, in the same area as this am.Basically, big churn again.I took a full stop on that one.Pa went up to the highs of the eth session in premarket.I was getting ready to leave again, but i thought the trade fit the criteria.I would rather be stopped out, than pass on a trade i feel is good.

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 Private Banker 
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Hi Bob,

As far as taking entries off an important level, I look to get as close to that level as possible but it doesn't have to be exact. Just look for volume to start coming in and take your entry even if it's higher or lower but as always make sure your stop is placed far enough away.

The afternoon ramp that took place was interesting. I had taken two shorts from the IB high level and per my specific rule that I can never deviate from is, I never take a trade from the same area more than two times. This is a classic example of how price ran back to that area, paused as some people got short again but ended up getting blown out and their stops helped the market surge higher. This rule has served me well for a long time. Just note the are if you haven't taken the trade. Look for an obvious area of support or resistance that would have been a good entry area and if price comes back again, stand aside. That's just my preference of course and you should use this at your own discretion.

Cheers,
PB

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