after alot of thought, i have decided, that i must adapt a bit to this market.First, i will trade cl at the open(cl) from 9 to 9:30.at that point, i will watch 2 markets only.nq and ym.I have made some adjustments, but, they are in line with my methodology.To be more specific, im looking to get in on pullbacks, that agree with my methodology.This is a little more aggressive, but, the market is being stingy, with my old favorite setup.I will sim this for the next few weeks, and see how it goes.I expect to have 3 to 6 trades a day
well, after all that thought, and soe big changes, we are finally rollin in the right direction.From the beginning, i always wanted to trade , realistically, 5 to 10 trades a day.However, if it ends up being 3, or 30, i want to be able to say to myself, i traded the method correctly.I started with futures again, in july , 2010.The moderator had a simple plan, but there werent enough trades each day.The main lesson i took from her tho, was using the macd for entries.After 16 months, of looking for the holy grail, and using all these different indicators, and ideas, i have finally gone back to simplicity.Macd on the bottom, and 2 mas on the chart.I use a 3ma and an 8ma, and i basically look for divergences, and they need to correlate with the macd.For my long term, i use a 5 min, with nothing on it.The 5 min tells me , if wer are in a trend, or range.I try to stay with the trend lines on the 5 min, and i use the 4 rng for entries.I have been using this adjustment to my method, for over a week, and it has worked very well.It is similar to Perrys method, but simpler , and more aggressive.I feell like someone wacked me with a board.I have been trading the nq, and the cl in am.I will definately be entering the next contest, as i feel i finally have a easy to teach method, that is simple, and visual...and works
a choppy day, but we had a decent am on the cl, the nq chopped a bit, still workin out some details on my rules, as far as which entries i can and cant take.Specifically, the initial cross of the macd, i have been passing on, and i tthink , some of them are good.There is liquidity there, all in all, not a bad day.I will stop early, very grindy/choppy.
6 cl trades
7 nq trades
pretty much was at -$210 for my cl trading, and ended up -$220 net, after 13 trades.Today was about as lousy as ive had in a while.IN 13 trades , i had like 7 break even scratch trades.Even the cl, the 1st 2 trades, were scratches, with slippage.a be trade , is when the trade goes 5 ticks, and bumps my sl to be, and price pulls back to stop me out.Price action was erratic, and very rangy, and im not gonna buy bottoms and short tops.It took too long to break that bad habit, so today, i suck it up, and look forward to tomorrow
An observation, that i have had , since istarted trading the nq at 9:30, is that i dont make the majority of the gains on the nq for the day..typically, the gains come from the cl, and the nq goes back and forth between red and black.Of course, the nq is choppier, and i get alot mor scratch trades.I am considering, not trailing my stop so close on the nq.
the nq definately chops me out more, and offers smaller gains.what i have been thinking, is adjusting my goal to 10 ticks on nq.Or, keeping my stop far enough out of the way, so i can get a pullback.Overall, the nq, along with the ym, have been in this range for so long, and i think the price action is generally rangy, which isnt good for me.The cl moves, and i am happy with a 10 tick profit.However, the stops add up alot quicker on the cl, which is one reason i decided to try the nq..But as you say, not easy with nq
had a bunch of trades today, on cl, 1 on ym, which went for a bit.Just practice today, as cl rollover is not tradable for me.Mondy should be finished with that.When the vol is lower, the setups are erratic at best, and the rangy trades are more common
6 or 7 trades
had some decent trades, 1 mistake, gotta be careful, not to take mushy macd signals.Just practice, as rollover kills the follow thru, creating more bes and sls(breakevens and stop losses.Next week should be better
started with 4 straight losers..got caught in the range
I decided to bring in the 8 range, for my long range ch.The 5 min is still up, but the 8 range gives me a much better visual of trend and pivots.I have been struggling with filtering out choppy signals, and the 8 range really helps to keep me away from the choppy ones, that the 4 range throws.Basically, for a 4 range buy sig, the macd needs to be above the zero on 4 and 8 rng, and the macd avg needs to be sloping up.This drastically cuts down on the choppy stops.Also, these are typically signals, that can go 10 to 30 ticks, and i have been working on that too.All in all, a tough week, with the crazy volatility.
I think the addition of the 8 range is going to be helpful.I have used it plenty of times, just diffferntly.I have been simming since jan, and there is definately a bit of frustration creeping in.Honestly, a little boredom too.The key, is to stay focussed.I must say , i felt i was ready to go to cash 2 or 3 times allready, but there was some tweaking necessary.Well, im ready for the tweaking to be done, and im hopeful to trade correctly, and on the basis of my results, be in cash soon.Im not getting my hopes up tho, as ive been here before.
One last note..i need to get real strict with the signal that i feel is very high probability, and stick with it.I need to bear down, and be disciplined.
volume very low.the trades were good enough to take.Now that im looking for more than 8 ticks, i am being patient, and , today, the trades went 8, even 15 ticks, to come back and stop me out.At 10 ticks, i raise the stop to be, or +1. Back to basics, no distractions during trading.I missed the big one, it kinda snuck up on me, but not really.The %min had such an obvious head and shoulders, and i blew it.That is the difference, i feel, that is keeping me from going to cash.Typically, 1 trade a day, is going to make the difference, which will make up for the others , that typically go to breakk even, or small gainns, and the occasional full stop.
Also, today was fed day, typical sluggish ac tion.No excuses, its time to get it done.Upon bringing back the 8 range (no indicators except macd), i feel pretty strongly, that the entries are as good as i can get.The 5 min occasionally throws a bone , like today.Its so funny, because , ive had this identical chart combination a few times in the past, only to change.I think, that it just comes down to using them correctly, and being patient and disciplined, to trade responsibly..
However, i am really tired of saying "i think".It sounds like all these guys on cnbc, thats all they say all day!
what i want to say is ,"i know"...and what i know works most of the time.Nothing else really matters..I just want tpo get to the next level allready, which is , trading cash, and holding my own.I been through this enough times, to understand, there could be a hickup, but this week and next week is really it.I will sim with this new change(adding the 8 range) till the end of next week.The same rules apply, i have to be green, consistently(weekly) to go to cash.Bummer is, after next week we go into rollover on cl..
That is one of the frustrating things with cl.W eare not guarenteed a full month of decent liquidity, and it just takes that much longer, to advance.
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