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I might Win a Tablet but I might just get rich trying
Another day of consolidation. After I went of for dinner the trend kicked in again which is a little frustrating. After the end of this month the time zones will be more favourably aligned for this style of trade.
As I often do when the hours grind by with nothing happening I ponder different ways to trade which is a type of delicious torture as you see how plan B, C , D or E would have made money in exactly this style of market. I must not waiver, I must not waiver…
The other interesting thing is I have noticed that after a day of consolidation there seems to be a rush to one side of the range that reverses to the other side then a trend inevitably ensues. Is this the early European trades hunting out the stops? More importantly, can this be traded?
Here is a profitable trade that didn’t impress me.
I had a good entry in line with the hourly trend and the wider stop I am now using kept me out of the noise.
The problem was with my mental arithmetic, which deserted me for some reason. First I calculated the trade size wrong and sold less than I should (I suppose doing less is better than doing more in this instance) then I calculated the height of the entry bar wrong so I was aiming at the wrong first target I realised this as it was bouncing around it so I pretty much got away with that one.
Finally I set the trail stop too tight – that was not really a mental arithmetic problem as I set it exactly where I wanted but I realize now that I need to stay out of the noise. The idea of the trail stop is that I don’t want to get close to the target and then get stopped out for a loss on that portion. Once before I did this and I used to set it at 30 pips so if I got within 10 pips of the target (40 pips) I had a break even second half. That was the thing that would get the 40 pips on the second portion which is what you really need to make this work.
The target was easily met and the EUR continued to fall all night. Sure, using a target would not have yielded the very best results in this instance but as Dave Landry says “You can’t kiss all the women (but you can try)”
The final Faux pax in this trade is that I forgot to check the news – It didn’t effect the trade in this instance but that was just good luck – not good trading
Must do better tonight although I’ll be tired because I woke up 4am today pondering the crappyness of this trade
Well I was very tired last night but even this morning I can’t see how I could have made a trade out of this. I am sure there are people out there who can trade ranges and are doing very well and but it’s never been a feature of my trading.
First I always get confused when a range starts and can get dragged in for one last (failed) trade. Then, when the range continues I find my trend seeking nature doesn’t allow me to try to pick tops and bottoms. Finally, when the range breaks I am wary of a fakeout so I like to see HH, HL HH before I get too excited.
We were outside working today and were carried away by the task at hand. Not realising time had stolen away from us I arrived at the PC late and fired it up to discover the beautiful move had escaped me.
Sometimes that sort of thing makes me want to stab out my eyes with a blunt pencil but I try to be more philosophical. There is always another trade coming right?
That’s a good question Big Mike. I find it hard to answer because the answer is easy in hindsight but not at the time it’s happening (or not for me anyway)
There are a myriad of entries here for many styles but for me the perfect entry is about 1630 - 1650 where you have the retracement and a break to the downside. Sometimes I’m at the PC then sometimes not so assuming I arrived at the usual 1700 I would like to think that I would have seen the consolidation and traded the downside break
That’s not to say I would have of course – I can’t say how it would have looked to me at the time.
There were lots of entries on the day with almost three Ross hooks beween1400 and 1500 and even earlier probably a long entry that would have been stopped out. I am attuned to the day here being in consolidation which seems to be the case 80% of he time so I like to go for the start of the EUR session at 1700 my time and London at 1800
As for exit I usually try for half at the level of risk so at about 20 pips and the other half I use a 40 pip tgt - both were easily achieved in very quick time. I love it when that happens because I get an early mark and can behave like other people and watch mindless TV
I asked only because I wanted to get you to think about "missing" the trade. I used to say things like this all the time, how I missed trades because I was <xyz>. But I stopped saying that.
First, be realistic. You have to eat, you have to pee, you have a life. If you step away to grab a sandwich and the market moves on you, that isn't a "missed" trade in my opinion, that is life.
Second, did you actually have a setup? Was it according to your plan? Don't be too quick to say you missed a huge move when if you had been sitting in front of your monitor the entire time you still would not have put the trade on. All about being realistic.
I only say these things because I think it is important to set the tone for yourself, and keep it upbeat and positive but also realistic. Don't harp on yourself even with little comments like these, or other common ones might be how the market is out to get you, or when talking to a friend tell him to take the opposite position as you so he can make money, etc etc. These things are all forms of self-sabotage and should be eliminated.
Now, if you had a valid setup and you were in front of your computer, and you failed to execute on the setup, then you should hold yourself accountable for that failure and try to find ways to minimize it in the future.
The main thing that upset me was not being here when I should be. Part of my discipline is to start at a set time. I haven't had a 'real' job for over 4 years now and it would be easy at the moment to never sit at the screen (Early Autumn, Tasmanian wilderness calling, most days around 20 degrees C and sunny) I combat this by 'working' set times
Still, you are right - no point crying over spilt milk you can only live the now
Just the one trade today and it went straight to the stop. It wasn’t the most spectacular setup as there was a fair bit of overlap in the pullback but that’s just how they look sometimes, there was no news scheduled so I did everything right.
