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Simple method journaL to get you from demo to live trading
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Simple method journaL to get you from demo to live trading

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
new york
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, NT
Favorite Futures: CL, GC
Posts: 213 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 99 given, 113 received

Simple method journaL to get you from demo to live trading

I'm back to demo after blew up my live account on ES recently. I have redefine and make it more dummy proof. I also realized I was not trading the right instrument. After doing demo with other instruments, I found crude and Euro are more comparable with me. Between crude and Euro, I pick crude as it has a lot more volume. More volume mean less slipperage.

I will be focusing on trade on a trend. Below are the copied from my trading plan:

What type of trades will you be taking?
First, determine the trend. You should able to tell within 10 to 20 minutes after the market open. If you cannot determine whether the bull or bear is in control, then the chance is that it will be a trading range day. Avoid trading in a trading range day.

After determining who is in control, for example, bull is in control, then buy at break out of every normal pull back bar until the bear show it is in control or when bull have a buying climax. A climax is very subjective, as a general rule for me, I consider a 50 ticks bar in a normal day is climax or when buying action usually over shoot the bull channel line then follow by a very strong bear action. If a pullback shows any kind of strength, then wait for a second attempt for confirmation because this pullback could be the beginning of the bear trend.

Counter trend should only be taken when:
  1. Trend climax with strong reversal, and then wait for second attempt to reverse the trend
  2. Fast and very strong pullback
  3. Break the previous trend line
Setup must have a potential move of minimum of 30 to 40 ticks

Stops : ~ 20 ticks
Target 1: 10 ticks, and then move stop to break even -9 (preserve capital is my #1 priority)
Target 2: minimum 30 ticks or aim for measure move (my risk free trade after target 1 is triggered)

* If the bar (usually entry bar) is greater than 50 ticks on a normal day and it is not at the beginning of the trend, then it is consider a climax move and trade will be closed. My observation is the reversal move come just as fast and it will wipe our all your profit.

The day begins with score of 100 and it is deducted for following:
-5 points: Missing trade; Closed trade immaturely
-20 Points: Force trade

I will trade on the 5 minutes (3 minutes if the average bar is bigger than then normal average size). Will use 30 minutes and daily chart to see the big trend

I will provide my analysis for the first 10 to 30 minutes on how I determine the trend. Will comment when I see a trend reverse

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  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

No trade on Monday until after 11 AM EST or later. Have to baby sit my 2 babies until my mom arrived:

The numbers on the chart represent a possible trade setup according to my trading plan.

The green arrow is my long entry and the red arrow is my short entry.

The blue-blue-orange parallel lines are the measure move mark. It is where I think price will go after a strong move. It does not mean that it will goes there if my order is executed.

Last edited by cw30000; February 28th, 2011 at 03:58 PM.
  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
new york
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, NT
Favorite Futures: CL, GC
Posts: 213 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 99 given, 113 received

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Market opened with a 100 ticks gap down from Friday's closing and it should be a bear day. However it opened right in the middle of Friday's trading range which give a probability that it will be a trading range as Friday.

Analysis of the first 30 to 45 minutes:
B1 - Market gap down and drop immediately, which is a good sign that it will be a bear day. However, there is a strong reversal at the last minute which make this a very strong. Maybe bull day now. Need confirmation
B2 - Bar open and very strong bull action, however, about 2 more minutes to go, it gave back all and closed the bar as a weak follow through. More confirmation need
B3 - Another bull attempt, but failed too. Need more confirmation
B4 - Very strong bear bar. B3 could be HOD. But since the bull was strong, there should be another push.
B5 - This bar was a good short setup bar until the last 30 seconds. In the last 3 seconds, it has a strong up push. It formed a very strong bull bar which over lapped the previous 3 or 4 bars. Trading range.
B6 - Failed break out
B7 - second attempt to go down. HOD could be in on B6. Still a trading range. I didn't see this as an acceptable trade even I see the HOD might be in. The reason is it is a trading range, and big bar = big risk.

Setup explanations:
1) Big swing after news and this is this first pullback after the market put a LOD on a sell climax and then follow by a strong bull reversal. (Miss trade)
2) Break out pull back on new HOD. The trade here is buy breakout to HH (Miss)
3) I see this another pull back. Although the pull back is strong, I considered it is a good long. The reason is two folds: a) the strong bear bear show support from the previous HOD(s). b) very strong bull inside bar. It is unfortunately that it suck me in and then go down more. But I accept this as a business risk.
4) Same setup as #3
5) I think the bear has took over because it took out the last HL. Good bear inside bar to short on breakout. I think price will test LOD (orange mark)
6) Strong bull action, which formed another HL. Because the bull is so strong, there should be another push or maybe a trend resumption. (Miss trade - expecting the trade, but mom called)
7) Pullback. Support from the previous bull leg (move)

Today's Result: -$80 (I set $5 RT for commission, but I forgot to check the apply commission to P/L)
Today's Grade: 85 (3 miss trades, 0 exit early, 0 force trade)
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Last edited by cw30000; February 28th, 2011 at 04:00 PM.
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