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Small losses...large gains...sometimes

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  #1 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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Posting a journal covering a simple ES trading strategy that has a base 10:1 (win/risk) where the returns deminish over each loser in time .

I am computer illiterate so getting me to set up charts etc will be a challenge...

In the meantime, I can say the settings are a 5 point price range bar and an ema setting...that'it...

The average loss runs around 1 point...profit goal 10 points... Average trades per day varies between 3 and 6 .

After 5 consecutive failures will increase allocation by 1 contract...and every 5 consecutive losses will continue to add another contract.

Account adequately covers initial loss by approximately 480 times.

I shut down trade before close and re open...just a habit I have developed...can go for me as against me...

Downside... needs 23 1/2 hours attention!!!... and a lot of patience...and there will be times that I am going to be "lucky" by missing a trade as I can be very unlucky if it hits and I am not on it..I accept that.

ES market volatilty suitable for trading this method......not perfect..won't get rich ,but will be profitable..

In the meantime I trade ES and 6E ...maybe journalize a strategy in 6E at a later date...

To each his own, but if there is one thing I would like to say is that I have finally come to grips with being properly capitalized to trade...

Hoping journalizing will keep me focused and assist in maintaining discipline.

Trader

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I don't think the addition of another contract would necessitate 5 losses in a row. If you do have 5 in a row, perhaps you should rethink your strategy. Sure it does happen from time to time, but the post's I've read show that if you have 3 losses that day, you just aren't in the groove and need to take the rest of the day off.

Also, multiple contracts on the ES starting out would be murder on your account. Theoretically, 1 contract's profit target would be the same for 2 contracts, or even 5 contracts. Why don't you create a strategy which is profitable with 1 contract and add multiple's after ensuring consistent profitability?

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johnnycakes78704 View Post
I don't think the addition of another contract would necessitate 5 losses in a row. If you do have 5 in a row, perhaps you should rethink your strategy. Sure it does happen from time to time, but the post's I've read show that if you have 3 losses that day, you just aren't in the groove and need to take the rest of the day off.

Also, multiple contracts on the ES starting out would be murder on your account. Theoretically, 1 contract's profit target would be the same for 2 contracts, or even 5 contracts. Why don't you create a strategy which is profitable with 1 contract and add multiple's after ensuring consistent profitability?

Thank you for your observation, however there a couple of points I need to make.

It is accepted that there will be strings of small losses...the losses average around 1 point...easily affordable in light of the profit goal being 10 times greater.

And what happens if the fourth trade on the day was a 10 point winner?...does that mean I still was not in the 'groove',because I had 3 successive losers?

Factually, the value of the second contract winner will be greater than the first contract winner until approximately the 8th successive loss.

I like criticism because ,more often than not, a little 'gem' can come out of it...

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I think it's fine to have a system that has a lot of small losers with a few big winners. It is outside most people's comfort zones though.

I notice you state you are computer illiterate. As such - could you tell us how you managed to figure the win/loss ratios and the overall profitability of the system? This is something most do with software.

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johnnycakes78704 View Post
I don't think the addition of another contract would necessitate 5 losses in a row. If you do have 5 in a row, perhaps you should rethink your strategy. Sure it does happen from time to time, but the post's I've read show that if you have 3 losses that day, you just aren't in the groove and need to take the rest of the day off.

Also, multiple contracts on the ES starting out would be murder on your account. Theoretically, 1 contract's profit target would be the same for 2 contracts, or even 5 contracts. Why don't you create a strategy which is profitable with 1 contract and add multiple's after ensuring consistent profitability?

I think the OP has a trading plan, which he is sharing with us, of which we dont yet know all the details....

first of all, 5 losses in a row are not that big of a deal, if you paid attention, he limits his loss to 1PT.. so the odds are still on his favor.. (he does not mention drawdown, but that is another story)... considering he has not provided any additional data, it would be premature for you to state that he should "re-think" his strategy.

lastly, as long as his account his properly capitalized, $50-100K IMO, he can take quite a few of those 5 losers in a row and survive, and by adding another contract he is leveraging sort of a martindale strategy to recover his losses... again 10:1, without more details, is f**** amazing if it is realistic..

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DionysusToast View Post
I think it's fine to have a system that has a lot of small losers with a few big winners. It is outside most people's comfort zones though.
.

most people want to have no losers... which is totally unrealistic... I rather have small losses that I know will happen, than the catastrophic lost that eats half or more of my account because I could not handle being wrong. It is good to be wrong, as long as it is manageable.


DionysusToast View Post
I notice you state you are computer illiterate. As such - could you tell us how you managed to figure the win/loss ratios and the overall profitability of the system? This is something most do with software.

dood... people where trading before computers .. ... and a decent math guy can calculate those ratios without major problems... most traders are drilled on math.. if not...

dont believe me? take the test and see how you do...

TraderTest.org - Do you have what it takes?

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DionysusToast View Post
I think it's fine to have a system that has a lot of small losers with a few big winners. It is outside most people's comfort zones though.

I notice you state you are computer illiterate. As such - could you tell us how you managed to figure the win/loss ratios and the overall profitability of the system? This is something most do with software.

Pen and paper ...started off by drawing graphs for stocks until it became second nature to anticipate the 'next move'...Numbers are simple if you keep them simple...I walked out of math 2nd year high school...so I have to keep it simple as that is all I know.

Like the Duracell battery this little strategy.. it justs kept on keeping on...

Basically comes down to the law of long numbers ,as they say, and a simple money management strategy...

Incidently, my stop is approximately 10% of current daily balance...most would be aghast at such a prospect I suppose, but it has to take at least between 26 and 30 consecutive losses in a relatively volatile instrument to take a 'hit'.

On the other side...trading has to cover the potential stop with at least 7 winners...

It is a grind...

BTW...can someone tell me if I should be providing real time trades or wait until the end of the day to update the journal?

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Family Trader View Post
BTW...can someone tell me if I should be providing real time trades or wait until the end of the day to update the journal?

your preference... RT trades provide IMO validity to your skills... hindsight is always 20/20.. and it is easy to mark up a chart after the fact...

as a recommendation... to capture your charts.. just press "prtsc" and then open click on "start" and select run and type "paint" ... pless CTRL+V and then just press "select" ... choose what you want to show (the chart) and press "crop"... and then just save the pic as a PNG.. and then upload as an attachment to the forum...

that should help you out to make the posts complete...

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Can I ask what the win rate was on your testing?

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Palm Beach County
 
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DionysusToast View Post
Can I ask what the win rate was on your testing?


It runs around 8...worst was 26....best was 2...

However last night missed by one tick from having another 2!!!...needed 131275
...+2400 as I write...


Trader

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Ok...I have my first trade for this journal..Short 132025...I don't expect this afternoon to be too productive, however there is a chance somebody could shoot Ghaadafi and that will set the cat amongst pigeons.

As for charts...I will think about that.

As I write we have a reverse ...now long 132075...target always +/- 10 points

It maybe that i may refrain from posting the trades until the EOD...otherwise could be using up a pile of pages and I have to stay focused ...

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Ok...so todays trades were S 132025
L 132075
S 132025
L 132125..............closed 132700...will reopen...profit goal 133125

We are back L 132650

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Family Trader View Post
Ok...so todays trades were S 132025
L 132075
S 132025
L 132125..............closed 132700...will reopen...profit goal 133125

We are back L 132650


Series completed ...10 - 1.5 net ...8.5 points less comms.

Back to bed...

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Palm Beach County
 
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Tried to download yesterdays/overnight trades...blew it...have to wait till daughter gets home...

In the meantime, we have a new series 1underway...profit goal always +/- 10

S 2650
L 2750
S 2675


Ok...just a quick update and I can point out a little 'quirk' that will be evident in the chart I hope to post later

First we have hit series 2 (6th trade)..before that we had the following trades..

L2750
S2575...nasty one...got nastier as it flipped back the other way in the same bar...and now we are in series 2 ..point out in chart
L2700..that is how i take my entries
S2625...looking good for awhile...appears to be ready to reverse as I write

Will clean up later

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I'm not quite following this...

S 2650
L 2750
S 2675

Does this mean you go long at 1327.50, short at 1326.75 and short at 1326.50 ?

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DionysusToast View Post
I'm not quite following this...

S 2650
L 2750
S 2675

Does this mean you go long at 1327.50, short at 1326.75 and short at 1326.50 ?

You have the initial entry last...

S 2650
L2750
S2675

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Palm Beach County
 
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Houston we have landed at 1625... will clean up later..

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Family Trader View Post
Tried to download yesterdays/overnight trades...blew it...have to wait till daughter gets home...

In the meantime, we have a new series 1underway...profit goal always +/- 10

S 2650
L 2750
S 2675


Ok...just a quick update and I can point out a little 'quirk' that will be evident in the chart I hope to post later

First we have hit series 2 (6th trade)..before that we had the following trades..

L2750
S2575...nasty one...got nastier as it flipped back the other way in the same bar...and now we are in series 2 ..point out in chart
L2700..that is how i take my entries
S2625...looking good for awhile...appears to be ready to reverse as I write

Will clean up later

Reverse did not happen..missed by a fraction...

Series 2 x10=20 -7 =13 points net profit less comms...series 1 was (5 1/2) and series 2 (1 1/2)...

Would love to have this automated,but Ninja not supported by my broker...so I just might change now..

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Family Trader View Post
Would love to have this automated,but Ninja not supported by my broker...so I just might change now..

why automate it with NT7, when you can for the same $$$ automate it with MC, and now with MC having chart trader and DOM on MC7 ... one does not have to do much of anything with NT7 unless one really wants to...

MC supports OEC without issues.. it supports Market/Limit/Stop orders natively, and OCO's programatically within MC...

so you can stay with OEC if they are reliable to you, and just pick MultiCharts... my 2 cents... and as a disclaimer, I own both NT7 and MC... and I find MC to be easier for simple coding and NT7 for very, very complex strategies... but keep in mind that C# is not all that fast, but it appears as your strat does not require speed of execution and analysis..

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sysot1t View Post
why automate it with NT7, when you can for the same $$$ automate it with MC, and now with MC having chart trader and DOM on MC7 ... one does not have to do much of anything with NT7 unless one really wants to...

MC supports OEC without issues.. it supports Market/Limit/Stop orders natively, and OCO's programatically within MC...

so you can stay with OEC if they are reliable to you, and just pick MultiCharts... my 2 cents... and as a disclaimer, I own both NT7 and MC... and I find MC to be easier for simple coding and NT7 for very, very complex strategies... but keep in mind that C# is not all that fast, but it appears as your strat does not require speed of execution and analysis..

Thank you for the advice...will run it through OEC to make sure they support Multicharts...

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Ok..here is today's chart ,which is self explanatory.



Sorry, 2 to the left of box should be included

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Family Trader View Post
Thank you for the advice...will run it through OEC to make sure they support Multicharts...


Lo and behold, my Broker, a decent guy, says NO...that is my aggravation with OEC...they seem to run off in tangents...love their platform as it is simple for the simple minded...BUT their support STINKS...!!!

I am seriously considering giving Mirus a chance unless I hear/read something untoward...

I don't have a lot of time to mess around as I want to set up automated sub accounts....and yet I am one step less than "dummies for auto trading"...2 left thumbs that have cost me over time...

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reality is that many closed platforms, OpenECry included, publish an API... TSS(MultiCharts) has supported OEC API for the past 4 years I believe.. you can go to their forums and check it out... even better, download their MC7 beta and test it out.. you will see how it works and test the connectivity before doing anything.. the beta is free for life... and for automated trading, the demo version is good for 30 days.

as to Mirus.. hmmm... they are a decent broker... I have used them... but they are not the best broker... I would rather recommend to you Velocity for their simpler account management features (very much like OEC platform) and also their tech support..... for the best pricing DeepDiscountTrading(CrossLand)... unless you want to go with Advantage Futures (but their account management platform is just awful)... another good account management platform is Vision Financial (Optimus is an IB for them).. their comms are ok..

anyhow, if you are truly not as computer savvy, please dont waste your time with NT7 & C#... stick to something like EasyLanguage(MultiCharts/TradeStation) that can be coded rather simply, but it is powerful enough to write anything complex... specially if you are using off the shelf indicators, etc. one does not really need C#...


Family Trader View Post
Lo and behold, my Broker, a decent guy, says NO...that is my aggravation with OEC...they seem to run off in tangents...love their platform as it is simple for the simple minded...BUT their support STINKS...!!!

I am seriously considering giving Mirus a chance unless I hear/read something untoward...

I don't have a lot of time to mess around as I want to set up automated sub accounts....and yet I am one step less than "dummies for auto trading"...2 left thumbs that have cost me over time...


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Palm Beach County
 
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Family Trader View Post
Posting a journal covering a simple ES trading strategy that has a base 10:1 (win/risk) where the returns deminish over each loser in time .

I am computer illiterate so getting me to set up charts etc will be a challenge...

In the meantime, I can say the settings are a 5 point price range bar and an ema setting...that'it...

The average loss runs around 1 point...profit goal 10 points... Average trades per day varies between 3 and 6 .

After 5 consecutive failures will increase allocation by 1 contract...and every 5 consecutive losses will continue to add another contract.

Account adequately covers initial loss by approximately 480 times.

I shut down trade before close and re open...just a habit I have developed...can go for me as against me...

Downside... needs 23 1/2 hours attention!!!... and a lot of patience...and there will be times that I am going to be "lucky" by missing a trade as I can be very unlucky if it hits and I am not on it..I accept that.

ES market volatilty suitable for trading this method......not perfect..won't get rich ,but will be profitable..

In the meantime I trade ES and 6E ...maybe journalize a strategy in 6E at a later date...

To each his own, but if there is one thing I would like to say is that I have finally come to grips with being properly capitalized to trade...

Hoping journalizing will keep me focused and assist in maintaining discipline.

Trader


sysot1t View Post
reality is that many closed platforms, OpenECry included, publish an API... TSS(MultiCharts) has supported OEC API for the past 4 years I believe.. you can go to their forums and check it out... even better, download their MC7 beta and test it out.. you will see how it works and test the connectivity before doing anything.. the beta is free for life... and for automated trading, the demo version is good for 30 days.

as to Mirus.. hmmm... they are a decent broker... I have used them... but they are not the best broker... I would rather recommend to you Velocity for their simpler account management features (very much like OEC platform) and also their tech support..... for the best pricing DeepDiscountTrading(CrossLand)... unless you want to go with Advantage Futures (but their account management platform is just awful)... another good account management platform is Vision Financial (Optimus is an IB for them).. their comms are ok..

anyhow, if you are truly not as computer savvy, please dont waste your time with NT7 & C#... stick to something like EasyLanguage(MultiCharts/TradeStation) that can be coded rather simply, but it is powerful enough to write anything complex... specially if you are using off the shelf indicators, etc. one does not really need C#...


Again, thank you Sysot,

When it comes to computers I'm still as 'thick as 2 planks' ...trust me...but at the same time I understand what you are trying to say...

Crazy at it may seem, to be successful in this business (given the technology available) I HAVE to believe it is NOT a 'one army band'...

It seems to me that there are individuals that want be able to trade, but for God given reasons cannot, and yet have abilities that can support the trader...so would it not make sense for individuals to recognize their individual talents and combine them to achieve the 'common goal'...

Probably getting off track from what this journal is supposed to be about...and talking out of my butt...

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  #26 (permalink)
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sysot1t View Post
why automate it with NT7, when you can for the same $$$ automate it with MC, and now with MC having chart trader and DOM on MC7 ... one does not have to do much of anything with NT7 unless one really wants to...

MC supports OEC without issues.. it supports Market/Limit/Stop orders natively, and OCO's programatically within MC...

so you can stay with OEC if they are reliable to you, and just pick MultiCharts... my 2 cents... and as a disclaimer, I own both NT7 and MC... and I find MC to be easier for simple coding and NT7 for very, very complex strategies... but keep in mind that C# is not all that fast, but it appears as your strat does not require speed of execution and analysis..

Another choice is stay with OEC and use Sierra Chart.

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Thank you Omaha,

Will check that out too.

Trader

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Family Trader View Post
Crazy at it may seem, to be successful in this business (given the technology available) I HAVE to believe it is NOT a 'one army band'...

It seems to me that there are individuals that want be able to trade, but for God given reasons cannot, and yet have abilities that can support the trader...so would it not make sense for individuals to recognize their individual talents and combine them to achieve the 'common goal'...

I completely understand what you mean... there is no single man hedge fund... usually, not always, there are those with the capital.. then the traders with the ideas and abilities... the quants (which normally know how to program) with their ideas as well... the techies.. the backoffice people... and all together make the pie and put it in the oven.. each with its own specialized task... to make lots of $$$, it takes a team.

there are plenty of guys on this forum that might not have a strategy that would certainly love exchanging skills... and then there is the mighty dollar as well, since programmers are for hire..

so not crazy at all ..

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Ok...we have new set up underway...I missed the first trade...but i still start from scratch. I don't particularly like Wednesdays or Fridays, but can only trade what is given as i have no idea of the outcome...

S130350

additional trades

L130375
S130300
L130300
S130200
L130325...got 'flipped'...and now series 2
S130275
L 130400

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What a bummer...!!! I missed out by 1 tickand my other model, which is generally more erratic romped in...

S 130575...

L 130625

further update..

S130600..starting 3rd series
L130725
S130625
L130650

Overall losses very low...

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Series still alive ...last trade was S 130750...closed at 130600...3rd series actually yielded a net profit

Just got back to find I missed a trade...have to wait it out or catch up with it sometime later...and will start the 4th series.

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Have woken up to find my missed trade has cost me +10 at 4th level 3rd trade...cost me big time as losses very small....damn, damn!! ...can't be here 23 hours a day and I do have a life. The trades would have been

S130625
L 130800...and it hit

In summary, the 1st series was (3 1/2)...2nd series was net ( 1 1/2) as had a profitable trade...3rd series was net profit...+3...

Overall series was net loss (2)....plus comms on 30 contracts... a pain

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After my little disappointment from last night...there was absolutely nothing to do...and probably not before tomorrow sometime IF it backs off to around 1223...

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Family Trader View Post
Have woken up to find my missed trade has cost me +10 at 4th level 3rd trade...cost me big time as losses very small....damn, damn!! ...can't be here 23 hours a day and I do have a life. The trades would have been

S130625
L 130800...and it hit

In summary, the 1st series was (3 1/2)...2nd series was net ( 1 1/2) as had a profitable trade...3rd series was net profit...+3...

Overall series was net loss (2)....plus comms on 30 contracts... a pain


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Have started trading a new signal...series 1

S 132875

One of the things I am going to explore is the dirfference between setting the profit goal based on the initial entry as opposed to running profit goal...

Reason although there should be little difference it may provide opportunities to exit earlier with a profit if the initial entry is lower + side/ or higher - side compared to the running profit goal of +/- from the last entry.

Have to find time to do it ...my only concern is what kind of additional exposure do I have when compared to the 2 different profit goal levels...not concerned about the profit differences.

I would go with the lesser exposure even if it means less profit...

Just reversed ...L 133050 ...ouch...

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Have a chance to update

S2925...3rd trade
L2950
S2875

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Have a chance to update

S2925...3rd trade
L2950
S2875

Ok we have completed series 1 with a 10 point profit @ 131875..

Net result...10 - 4= 6 points before comms.

I am packing it in for today...hope all have a pleasant weekend..

Trader

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Hi Family Trader,

Thank you for the nice journal.

I have questions regarding the indicators you use in your ES chart---

1. What's the Period of EMA? Is it EMA 50?

2. What's the Period of Chande Momentum Oscillator?

3. What's the Period of William's%R?

Thank You In Advance & Good Trading to You!


Family Trader View Post
Posting a journal covering a simple ES trading strategy that has a base 10:1 (win/risk) where the returns deminish over each loser in time .

I am computer illiterate so getting me to set up charts etc will be a challenge...

In the meantime, I can say the settings are a 5 point price range bar and an ema setting...that'it...

The average loss runs around 1 point...profit goal 10 points... Average trades per day varies between 3 and 6 .

After 5 consecutive failures will increase allocation by 1 contract...and every 5 consecutive losses will continue to add another contract.

Account adequately covers initial loss by approximately 480 times.

I shut down trade before close and re open...just a habit I have developed...can go for me as against me...

Downside... needs 23 1/2 hours attention!!!... and a lot of patience...and there will be times that I am going to be "lucky" by missing a trade as I can be very unlucky if it hits and I am not on it..I accept that.

ES market volatilty suitable for trading this method......not perfect..won't get rich ,but will be profitable..

In the meantime I trade ES and 6E ...maybe journalize a strategy in 6E at a later date...

To each his own, but if there is one thing I would like to say is that I have finally come to grips with being properly capitalized to trade...

Hoping journalizing will keep me focused and assist in maintaining discipline.

Trader


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  #39 (permalink)
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To answer in reverse

Williams% is voodoo...I trade using it as a contrarian indicator from what it is intended...only used when I have not a trade on..runs around 50% ..pretty much most of the time.

CMO is work in progress...has high probability signals around +/- 40 and 50 'breakdown'

I use EMA100 and a 5 point momentum price range...seems to be unique to OEC...so you can look at straight 5 point price range using other platforms...

I was going to switch brokers and go with Ninja...have completely backed off and will definitely purchase MultiCharts and stay with OEC..

BUT I will need help with writing my stratgies to go 'auto' as I am pretty dumb when it comes to computers .My strategies are simple with just a couple of conditions related to order placements and stop loss ...the latter runs off daily opening balance percentage NOT price ..

Someone?

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Family Trader View Post
To answer in reverse

Williams% is voodoo...I trade using it as a contrarian indicator from what it is intended...only used when I have not a trade on..runs around 50% ..pretty much most of the time.

CMO is work in progress...has high probability signals around +/- 40 and 50 'breakdown'

I use EMA100 and a 5 point momentum price range...seems to be unique to OEC...so you can look at straight 5 point price range using other platforms...

I was going to switch brokers and go with Ninja...have completely backed off and will definitely purchase MultiCharts and stay with OEC..

BUT I will need help with writing my stratgies to go 'auto' as I am pretty dumb when it comes to computers .My strategies are simple with just a couple of conditions related to order placements and stop loss ...the latter runs off daily opening balance percentage NOT price ..
Someone?

Hi Family Trader

Thank you for your reply. Currently I have NinjaTrader 7 and CMO (it's probable OEC inbuilt indicator) is not avalable, I added EMA 100 to my ES chart. Could you check your indicator and let me know what the period of William's%R is? Please check the attachment for my request. TIA

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  #41 (permalink)
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Hi Family Trader

Thank you for your reply. Currently I have NinjaTrader 7 and CMO (it's probable OEC inbuilt indicator) is not avalable, I added EMA 100 to my ES chart. Could you check your indicator and let me know what the period of William's%R is? Please check the attachment for my request. TIA

CMO is Chande and it is on Ninja ...Williams set at 10...thanks for info on PM...fyi, distinct difference between my momentum 5 point price range and standard 5 point price range, but same logic can be applied.

Trader

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CMO is Chande and it is on Ninja ...Williams set at 10...thanks for info on PM...fyi, distinct difference between my momentum 5 point price range and standard 5 point price range, but same logic can be applied.

Trader


Just to qualify...by "points" I am referring to ticks ...so to be clear it is 5 ticks=1.25 points...hope I haven't confused too many readers..


Trader

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Family Trader View Post
CMO is Chande and it is on Ninja ...Williams set at 10...thanks for info on PM...fyi, distinct difference between my momentum 5 point price range and standard 5 point price range, but same logic can be applied.

Trader

Hi Family Trader,

Thank you for the information. You stated in one of your posts that you intended to switch to NinjaTrader. Do you find NT has Momentum 5 Range Bar type which you use in OEC? I searched futures.io (formerly BMT) and Googled; but, I could not find anything about Momentum Range Bar type. Could you help?

Two more questions----a. What's the period for Chande Momentum Oscillator ? b. Does the time showing in your ES chart EST (Florida time)?

Best,

fusion

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Hi Family Trader,

Thank you for the information. You stated in one of your posts that you intended to switch to NinjaTrader. Do you find NT has Momentum 5 Range Bar type which you use in OEC? I searched futures.io (formerly BMT) and Googled; but, I could not find anything about Momentum Range Bar type. Could you help?

Two more questions----a. What's the period for Chande Momentum Oscillator ? b. Does the time showing in your ES chart EST (Florida time)?

Best,

fusion

It seems to be unique to OEC...and I really like it....it seems to 'quieter' than the price bar.Maybe somebody can find out how they do it (formula)...beyond me...

No ..as stated earlier I am not going to go with Ninja....will definitely go with MultiCharts , but whether I stay with OEC is another matter...

CMO=14...yes it is EST...btw ..CMO is basically stochastics...I propose to use it for extemes breaking down...have not traded it earnestly though as it still 'work in progress'...

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Looks as though I should not have gone to bed last night as there were 2 trades ...the first ,because I was out

S 131775 and now L 131850 looking promising...that's the way it goes, I'm afraid...

Even more reason to get this strategy automated...

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Looks as though I should not have gone to bed last night as there were 2 trades ...the first ,because I was out

S 131775 and now L 131850 looking promising...that's the way it goes, I'm afraid...

Even more reason to get this strategy automated...

Have stated trading a new series

S 131900

update

L 131925....profit goal is 132850...9 1/2 points

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Somehow i have messed a posting....anyway looking for 131100 at end of series 2...will clean up later

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Got caught a couple of nasty flips in the process of completing trades to profit goal.

A flip is where I get reversed within the same bar...always makes me nervous ...

To make it a little more legible I will start from the beginning and point out the 'flips'

S 131900
L 131925
S 132075
L 132200...flipped
S 132100.....end of series 1...net 1 .75 loss

L 132175
S 132100
L 132225
S 132075...flipped

Profit goal reached 131100....the highest point of the sell side...

Net result series 1 ( 1.75)...series 2 19.50 - 7 =12 .5 - (1.75)= 10.75 net before comms.

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Have another trade on...bit choppy with a flip

L131075
S130975
L 131100...flipped
S130900...2 point loss...it happens
L 131000
S 131000..series 2....closed 130900


Long night ahead...

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Have another trade on...bit choppy with a flip

L131075
S130975
L 131100...flipped
S130900...2 point loss...it happens
L 131000
S 131000..series 2....closed 130900


Long night ahead...

Hi Family Trader,

May I suggest you to post your charts with Entry and Exit, please. TIA

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Hi Family Trader,

May I suggest you to post your charts with Entry and Exit, please. TIA

Ok...but you have to understand the 'flip' is the same bar...as for posting...I can put up a chart ,but the trades are OBVIOUS to the naked eye...unless there is a flip...I just realized I haven't put up a chart for the last couple of days...will put up one for today when my daughter gets home otherwise have no idea where it will finish up being!!!

As for 'wordage' on a chart...I would be the last person you would ask!!!

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sysot1t View Post
.. another good account management platform is Vision Financial (Optimus is an IB for them)..

I'm typically a leach on futures.io (formerly BMT) so it feels good to come to the party with a gift. I second Optimus -- a neighbor or yours in Boca. Small boutique broker with rithmic feed, personal attention, and low fees. They support Ninja, MC and Sierra and would be able to help you automate or direct you to the right source. Matt Z is a member here. PM him.

https://futures.io/trading_member/7726-mattz.html

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I'm typically a leach on futures.io (formerly BMT) so it feels good to come to the party with a gift. I second Optimus -- a neighbor or yours in Boca. Small boutique broker with rithmic feed, personal attention, and low fees. They support Ninja, MC and Sierra and would be able to help you automate or direct you to the right source. Matt Z is a member here. PM him.

https://futures.io/trading_member/7726-mattz.html

Thank you...I am very grateful for your recommendation.
.

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curious, when the position is in profit, do you trail your stops or you just let it at X ticks from entry and just get out when it hits your target?


Family Trader View Post
Have woken up to find my missed trade has cost me +10 at 4th level 3rd trade...cost me big time as losses very small....damn, damn!! ...can't be here 23 hours a day and I do have a life. The trades would have been

S130625
L 130800...and it hit

In summary, the 1st series was (3 1/2)...2nd series was net ( 1 1/2) as had a profitable trade...3rd series was net profit...+3...

Overall series was net loss (2)....plus comms on 30 contracts... a pain


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curious, when the position is in profit, do you trail your stops or you just let it at X ticks from entry and just get out when it hits your target?

I just let it run to target.

I did look at trailing stops,but was not comfortable with any length....am considering using a CMO 'extreme breakdown' as a possible exit and reentry +/- 3 points...looks OK , but not satisfied it will hold up as it can come quickly in series and be a 'false signal' and I am left with minuscule profits , or even a net loss, while it runs to original target.

When I become proficient with MultiChart package I will be in a better position to 'tinker'....something I loathe doing as it might turn my head.

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Have another trade on...bit choppy with a flip

L131075
S130975
L 131100...flipped
S130900...2 point loss...it happens
L 131000
S 131000..series 2....closed 130900


Long night ahead...

Got some sleep as wife monitored...

Update of trades....reenter
S130925
L131100...target 132075...lowest point of entry...also original point of entry.

Forgot to leave a note to do charts for yesterday...so will catch up later in the morning.

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Family Trader View Post
Got caught a couple of nasty flips in the process of completing trades to profit goal.

A flip is where I get reversed within the same bar...always makes me nervous ...

To make it a little more legible I will start from the beginning and point out the 'flips'

S 131900
L 131925
S 132075
L 132200...flipped
S 132100.....end of series 1...net 1 .75 loss

L 132175
S 132100
L 132225
S 132075...flipped

Profit goal reached 131100....the highest point of the sell side...

Net result series 1 ( 1.75)...series 2 19.50 - 7 =12 .5 - (1.75)= 10.75 net before comms.

chart for above...hope it comes out Ok...doing it myself

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it came out just fine, great work...


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chart for above...hope it comes out Ok...doing it myselfAttachment 32987


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Got some sleep as wife monitored...

Update of trades....reenter
S130925
L131100...target 132075...lowest point of entry...also original point of entry.

Forgot to leave a note to do charts for yesterday...so will catch up later in the morning.

Finally got done...I misspoke earlier...the target was 132000 as 131000 was lowest BUY...drawdown exceeded 5% at the end of the series...

summary of trades following from above
S131175
L131275...end of series 2
S131225
L131325
S131225
L131300
S131250..end of series 3
L131225
S131125
L131250...flip
S131175
L131200........profit goal 132000...without getting to all the details, I finished up with a net loss after comms..!!!

Don't like that...what had happened is that the final trade was at the end of a series and the target shifted a net 2 points lower from last entry.

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Last night was a series of trades, however I did not take any of them as I had a very long and frustrating (end result) day yesterday and I needed some good rest...

I am rested and ready to move on...never like Wednesdays and it turned out good last week....so who knows.

Sysot1t....I am going to put more effort into determining a trailing stop, because while the series loss may average 1 point losses, they do compound to give me concern in the 5 th series and by that time there were at least 2 or 3 good runners that rolled back where I could have taken good profitable trades.

Generally, I never let a winning trade turn into a loser except for this strategy and I am aware of my potential loss here.

Trader

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Family Trader View Post

Got some sleep as wife monitored...

if I may suggest something... take a look at ThinkOrSwim... I think based on what I deduct to be your trading style, their platform will suit you a lot more... and here are the reasons why:

1) You dont seem to trade extremely active (e.g. you are not a scalper)
2) You need to monitor your positions 24x7 and the ability to trade from anywhere (their platform lends itself to it)

based on those reasons, here are my points why TOS might be for you..

1) The platform will run on a Table (XOOM or iPAD)
a) With a table, you can be anywhere with the family. so no sacrifice there. You do need to ensure you have wireless access which can be done via cell phone tethering, via built in cell phone on the tablet, or via wifi.. comes down to where you are when you are trading if home or out in a restaurant enjoying the family.
b) Order entry and charting will be available, but you need to get used to using your finger on a screen as a mouse.
c) You can go to sleep and setup an alert that you can hear if a price level is hit.
d) You can actually pay a few experts to code anything you want on ThinkScript, so there is a community for it.
2) You can negotiate the costs with them to match or improve on what you get from OEC
3) They have a new ATS named Prodigio (which is not all that, but your rules are simple)
4) You can trade equities/options/futures and even forex(but stay away from FXCM so dont trade forex with them) via their platform
5) their record keeping will work with TAPRO(well, I find it that I can deal with my taxes better by using TAPRO, you might use something else)

lastly, you could also ask OEC what are their plans to support mobile devices with their fat client.. in specific iPAD or XOOM...

also, you dont need a table if you dont want to... before iPADs where the it, there were tabls from IBM .. their Thinkpads are excellent, all my notebooks are Thinkpads.. and the buy from lenovo didnt ruin quality... if price is no objective, look at X201 SEries Tablets.. they start at $1300, but properly configured it will set you back $3K..

the advantage to the full tablet is that you can still run OEC trader on it at 1280x800 and use a pen on the touchscreen... and still have it next to you in bed with alerts to wake you rather than to sit on the screen monitoring things like a mad man ...

anyhow, just my suggestions as to what you can do with technology to facilitate your trading..

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Gee ...it is nice to know there are knowledgeable people around that will give a stranger a hand.

Thanks ,sysot1t...I hope there will be the day I can return the favor...

I have been very busy today...managing my trades ...this strategy, besides complementary trades in ES and 6E.

In addition, in between preempted alerts going off, I have been sussing out a method to establish a sound trail loss on the published strategy...it takes work and patience...I know what I want to do, but need a walk forward to confirm..

Will get around to covering my trades later today.

Hate Wednesdays...


Trader

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  #63 (permalink)
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Long day and finally got the series completed with a net profit..


Won't go through all the trades as most have got the picture..net profit 10.75 points before comms.

Forgot to mention closing trade was 1308.50..

May not trade at all today...not feeling well enough...going back to bed.

There is always tomorrow

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Back on deck...missed 2 complete series of +10's for profit while not well...thems de breakes...

Have decided to limit my trading by having a long period between each completed series as a result of 'over doing it' recently. Need to rest and as my wife says, "The market will be there when you wake up...just make sure you wake up!!!"

While doing nothing ...I am satisfied I have come up with a solution related to trailing stops that i can live with..

Have a new series under way...

L128625
S128550
L128625
S128550
L128675

Will post at end of series...

Trader

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Another series completed with a profit..9.25 before comms

Will be applying a method earlier where the CMO reaches a given 'extreme' condition. there were two instances during the trade where it could be applied .

Will put up a chart later and highlight the 2 extreme conditions..

Trader

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  #67 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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Chart for Friday's trades highlighting extremes...although waited out for +10.

Next week will apply extremes as it will reduce potential exposure and may turn out more profitable.


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i won't be trading until the morning ,however just want to point out an 'extreme' was signals from 9375 to 8875 (cover)...

Looks fairly efficient...net profit only 2 points before comms....still a profit , though

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  #69 (permalink)
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Another 10 point profit goal achieved...the 'extreme actually coincided with the 128325 needed...charts will be provided later...

Net profit 12.50 before comms...32 contracts

Trader

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Just found out cannot include an attachment to an update...so here is the charts for today's trades.

Will be starting as from 1.30 am EST for next trade

This could be the wrong chart..from Friday

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Palm Beach County
 
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It was the wrong chart so i will try again



this it...

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Palm Beach County
 
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A pretty eventful night before I got up as i suspected it might be...and it continued.

We had a +10 profit goal hit, but we were already out as had an 'extreme' a few minutes earlier.

the losses were skinny in both series traded and we took profits at 125775....and it went on to 125425 without us..

Net profit 9.5 before comms...13 contracts...


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  #73 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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FOMC day...won't be trading until after 2.30 EST

Trader


There was no trading this afternoon...did not get in as EMA stayed positve all afternoon...Will open new series after 1.30 am,subject to radiation leaks...

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  #74 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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Series completed this morning...long wait...busy so will update later with chart and no more trading until sfter 1.30 am EST.

Did not get full +10 as extremme happened a shade earlier.


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Palm Beach County
 
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Here is the chart from yesterday's trade...unlucky as had to take a loss on the series as it hit the extremme then rolled through to +10...it happens

Net loss 6.75 points plus comms...65 contracts...that hurt

Since then there have been 4 more +10s in a volatile period...no trades taken,unfortunately.

No trade available since 1.30 am EST either...wont take up a new trade until 9 am ..


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  #76 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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Todays trade was a close call...had approximately 3 more trades and would have hit a stop....took 26 trades equal recent high to complete series...but profitable

Net profit 11.00 points before comms...81 contracts...

Don't like Fridays will not enter before 7 am EST,but may decide not to trade at all....


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Palm Beach County
 
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Not trading today...never really like Fridays...focusing all my day on Multicharts and probably annoy the hell out of them with some specific needs in order to justify buying their product...

Happy trading all..

Trader

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  #78 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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Have had an exacerbating weekend trying to get data from MC..don't know whether it was them or broker feed or CME/Globex...but was not fun

As a result of Friday's fortunate lay off from this strategy I have made a specific change to the EMA setting which will bring in (hopefully) more profit hits from the CMO 'extreme' range. In essence, I will be in effect reducing the potential +10 profit goal for the sake of less ,but more frequent profits at the extremes while,and more importantly, reducing potential exposures to my stop loss method.

I will not disclose the specific change for a week, but will be (am) running the change with the current EMA100, meaning I am running double contracts ( exposure) where both levels trigger a trade.

In effect, if it goes totally wrong over night I will have 2 losses.

Currently was S at 7675 and 7525

L 7600 and 7675...might be a little confusing but in time will resolve itself.

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Palm Beach County
 
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Family Trader View Post
Have had an exacerbating weekend trying to get data from MC..don't know whether it was them or broker feed or CME/Globex...but was not fun

As a result of Friday's fortunate lay off from this strategy I have made a specific change to the EMA setting which will bring in (hopefully) more profit hits from the CMO 'extreme' range. In essence, I will be in effect reducing the potential +10 profit goal for the sake of less ,but more frequent profits at the extremes while,and more importantly, reducing potential exposures to my stop loss method.

I will not disclose the specific change for a week, but will be (am) running the change with the current EMA100, meaning I am running double contracts ( exposure) where both levels trigger a trade.

In effect, if it goes totally wrong over night I will have 2 losses.

Currently was S at 7675 and 7525

L 7600 and 7675...might be a little confusing but in time will resolve itself.

Last nights trades went very well...will provide charts and comments later when i get a chance.

Trader

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  #80 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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The charts and comments from last/morning trades

Profts were 9.75 ..2 contracts and 9.25..2 contracts respectively...a good day overall....no trades since .


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Posts: 1,176 since Nov 2009


Family Trader View Post
The charts and comments from last/morning trades

Profts were 9.75 ..2 contracts and 9.25..2 contracts respectively...a good day overall....no trades since .

Attachment 34429

curious, did you watched it all night? and how do you manage to watch things overnight without getting bored out of your skull?

I cant get around entering trades on US Indexes after hours, I am just afraid lack of liquidity will go against me if someone sweeps the order book given I cant put stops on spreads ... so I have to watch the spreads through out the day...

last night was a good night to trade just as you state... I wanted to put on a spread on the YM/ES pair, but I just could not bring myself around it... instead I placed it this morning and I ended up only making $100 for the day vs. $1200 ...

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Palm Beach County
 
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sysot1t View Post
curious, did you watched it all night? and how do you manage to watch things overnight without getting bored out of your skull?

I cant get around entering trades on US Indexes after hours, I am just afraid lack of liquidity will go against me if someone sweeps the order book given I cant put stops on spreads ... so I have to watch the spreads through out the day...

last night was a good night to trade just as you state... I wanted to put on a spread on the YM/ES pair, but I just could not bring myself around it... instead I placed it this morning and I ended up only making $100 for the day vs. $1200 ...

$100 is a lot better than what a lot of traders made...but I understand your point.

No,I did not watch it all night...my son (19 and one of the rare times his was home!!! ) monitored the trade...he knows what to do if there was a change...

I also have an alert system the whole house will hear if necessary...another reason for automation as it is getting 'old'.

While up last night after 2 am , I did a lot of work so was not bored ...when second trade completed ..hit the sack. If there was another trade...would not have mattered.

Progressing with automating...need a couple of weeks to walk forward and de bug, if necessary.

Trader

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Family Trader View Post
$100 is a lot better than what a lot of traders made...but I understand your point.

No,I did not watch it all night...my son (19 and one of the rare times his was home!!! ) monitored the trade...he knows what to do if there was a change...

I also have an alert system the whole house will hear if necessary...another reason for automation as it is getting 'old'.

While up last night after 2 am , I did a lot of work so was not bored ...when second trade completed ..hit the sack. If there was another trade...would not have mattered.

Progressing with automating...need a couple of weeks to walk forward and de bug, if necessary.

Trader

thanks for the feedback.. it has given me a few ideas for setting price alerts.. I am also looking at CQG spreader, from what I read on their User Guide they do have stops and they are server side.. and there are some cool features on CQGIC that after reading I am finding of use...

glad to know that Multicharts is coming along nicely for you...

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Palm Beach County
 
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Have started a new series...S 9175
L 9250...this is the first of the 2 sets...the other set will not trigger until sometime later at a lower level;if at all.

Trader

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  #85 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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Lousy, unproductive day and I had a good gut feeling it would turn out that way.

The 2nd level started with a L 8875...in the mean time the first level is now commencing the 3rd series..

Ideally, would like to have an extreme pop up any time, but not holding my breathe...

Long night ahead..

NiN

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  #86 (permalink)
 
 
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Family Trader View Post
Lousy, unproductive day

I hear ya, I didnt have a single trade on the futures side, ended up switching to trading options on AAPL so that I would not have wasted the day trading and close with some profit today at least... ES/YM just went nowhere today for me, there were a few opportunities when ES kept going against 92-93 and finding resistance, but that was just about it.. very sideways today for me...

when you see the day like this where it is clearly sideways, do you stop the series or just keep on until you get your profits eventually? curious...

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Palm Beach County
 
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sysot1t View Post
I hear ya, I didnt have a single trade on the futures side, ended up switching to trading options on AAPL so that I would not have wasted the day trading and close with some profit today at least... ES/YM just went nowhere today for me, there were a few opportunities when ES kept going against 92-93 and finding resistance, but that was just about it.. very sideways today for me...

when you see the day like this where it is clearly sideways, do you stop the series or just keep on until you get your profits eventually? curious...

No, once committed I will stay with the trade (series)...in this case I was in two minds whether to commit as the price pattern looked absolutely ugly.

I committed ,because I did not know that it would remain that way (who does) and it had been in excess of 12 hours, so I thought there would be a reasonable chance it will break out.

Trader

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Palm Beach County
 
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Ok..have closed out both trades at 8475...yielded a small profit before comms.

Missed first trade from a +10 by 2 ticks!!

Reason i closed out is that I am going to be carry unnecessary exposure at series 3 whereas I can achieve virtually the same result by reverting back to series 1...

This trade has gone on longer than 24 hours and no outright result...so I am taking a hit on comms for a total of 29 contracts against profit of 1.25 points..

BUT my exposure diminishes to 'base' level...

Will pull up a chart later...

Trader

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  #89 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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Chart for yesterday and today's trades..


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  #90 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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After the realignment we had a nice profit +10 trade on the first set up closing out at 9550..

Net profit was 6.75 points before comms...4 contracts

The 2nd set up is still running looking for 9650 at present.

Trader

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Palm Beach County
 
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The second set was completed +10...1 contract...this of course is as a resultof default from yesterday.

Although if (I don't like that word in trading) I had left it alone from yesterdays sequence the profits would have been greater., but then again I would have been forsaking the exposure of the 1st set up which was in excess of 50 % chance of being stopped out eventually.

Bottom line...not what you make...it's what you don't lose.


Trader


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  #92 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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We have a new trading series under way S 9375 !st set up

Trader

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Posts: 1,176 since Nov 2009

so you dont add at all to a position that you know is going in your favor?


Family Trader View Post
The second set was completed +10...1 contract...this of course is as a resultof default from yesterday.

Although if (I don't like that word in trading) I had left it alone from yesterdays sequence the profits would have been greater., but then again I would have been forsaking the exposure of the 1st set up which was in excess of 50 % chance of being stopped out eventually.

Bottom line...not what you make...it's what you don't lose.


Trader

Attachment 34793


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  #94 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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sysot1t View Post
so you dont add at all to a position that you know is going in your favor?

No...and it looks like I have repeated an earlier chart to cover the last trade close at 9650...for +10..sorry about that..

Will fix that later..

Trader

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  #95 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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Closed 130475...net profit 9.0 points before comms ..2 contracts

Chart also refers to this morning's close 129650 .

Will not be trading tomorrow or overnight.

Now I cannot download the chart...will do it later

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  #96 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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Chart I could not download earlier...

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  #97 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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Have a new set up ..S 130900...have a feeling will be quiet night though


Trader

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Chart I could not download earlier...Attachment 34928

Hi Family Trader,

Thank you for posting your chart. I saw you have two EMAs now. I know one is EMA100. What's the period of another EMA? TIA

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  #99 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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Finally got out of todays pathetically boring action right near the close with an 'extreme' exit

Profit for 1 st set up was only 3.5 and 2nd set up was 2.25...1st set up took 9 trades and 2 nd set up was just the one trade..

Still profits though...

Will post chart later.

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  #100 (permalink)
Palm Beach County
 
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Chart for yesterday's trades

At the end of the month I will make a few comments related to trading and hopefully try to offer some useful advice related to 'funding' a strategy and survival.

Not everyone will like it,but if it helps 1 trader, I will be happy.


Trader

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