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"It Always Comes Back"


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"It Always Comes Back"

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  #21 (permalink)
Wauseon, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Thinkorswim
Broker: thinkorswim / PFGBest
Trading: ETFs
 
Posts: 63 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 19 given, 41 received

I was challenged by a friend to make only one trade per day to help eliminate bad or rash entry decisions.
Here is my trade:

Quick trade when I got home from work @ 1:20 a.m.
  • Fast MA crossed up over Slower MA
  • TSI rising arrow
  • Price above the MA
  • Higher Highs, Higher Lows
  • Above the Pivot Line
  • Elliot Oscillator moving up

+7.2 pips


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  #22 (permalink)
Wauseon, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Thinkorswim
Broker: thinkorswim / PFGBest
Trading: ETFs
 
Posts: 63 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 19 given, 41 received

2 Trades in an uptrend:

A: The green TSI Arrow indicates a potential long trade
Close above the slower MA and above the pivot line
Entry @ 1.37762 Long 2 contracts
1st target (scalp) 1.37792 +3 pips

B: Trend reversal arrow at a nice round number 1.38400
Exited at 1.38289 +52.7 pips

C: The price moved down and a red TSI arrow formed hinting at a short.
The price didn't close below the MA before a counter trend signal was given
A green TSI arrow formed suggesting a continuance of the trend after price bounced off of the MA and pivot line.
Entry @ 1.38295 Long 2 contracts
1st target (scalp) 1.38325 +3 pips

D: The price moved down and a red TSI arrow appeared.
Exited @ 1.38691 +39.6 pips

Total for the 2 trades: +98.3 pips



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  #23 (permalink)
Wauseon, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Thinkorswim
Broker: thinkorswim / PFGBest
Trading: ETFs
 
Posts: 63 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 19 given, 41 received


Only one trade today.

I usually trade the EURUSD but went to the GBPUSD because it looked like it was moving more.
  • Red TSI arrow (short indicator)
  • Elliot Oscillator was red and flat. - I probably should have waited for a definite downturn.
  • Price below the moving averages
  • Entry short @ 1.62725
  • Stop set just above the slower Moving average
  • 1st target triggered @ 1.62695 for +3 pips
  • Exited when the yellow long countertrend arrow appeared and price closed higher @ 1.62620 +7.5 pips
  • Total trade +10.5 pips


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  #24 (permalink)
Wauseon, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Thinkorswim
Broker: thinkorswim / PFGBest
Trading: ETFs
 
Posts: 63 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 19 given, 41 received

Early in the morning.
I usually trade the EURUSD spot but lately it hasn't been moving and today I didn't like the look of it.

A Trading friend introduced me to the cable and as time goes on it looks more profitable.

Only one trade today, I had to go to work

This trade:

A:
  • Green TSI arrow said "Go Long Young Man!"
  • The Elliot Oscillator was moving up but the price was below the Pivot and Slower MA so I waited to see what would happen.
  • On the next candle it closed above the Pivot and MA. Time to go
  • Entry @ 1.62594
  • Stop set below the Slower MA @ 1.62522
  • 1st Target triggered at 1.62624 +3.0 pips
  • There were a few counter trend arrows but it was above both MAs so I let it ride.
B:
  • Price started back down, I got a little nervous but was hoping for a bounce back up
  • Red TSI arrow formed, priced closed red under the Faster MA, so I decided to get out.
  • Exit @ 1.62799 +20.5 pips

Total trade: +23.5 pips

I'm very happy with this because my daily goal is +20 pips





This next chart is an example of a failure of my methods.

If I had made this trade (and I probably would have), I would have been stopped for a 10 - 15 pip loss.

The short move a little later would have made up some of the loss though.
+3 pips on the first target and, if I waited that long, +4 pips when the price closed up above the fast MA.


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  #25 (permalink)
Wauseon, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Thinkorswim
Broker: thinkorswim / PFGBest
Trading: ETFs
 
Posts: 63 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 19 given, 41 received

I read in a book somewhere that the trades that we don't take can be more satisfying than the ones that we do.

Today was a good example of that for me.
This little "victory" was a huge psychological boost.

After taking a quick +3 pip scalp -A)- (that could have been more if I would have checked my SuperDOM settings before entering the trade), I waited for a reversal to get in Long.

The green TSI arrow appeared as expected with the Elliot Oscillator heading up. The price hadn't crossed the Moving averages yet so I decided to wait.

Now, a short time ago when I was using the "If it Feels Good, Do It" strategy, I would have entered the trade long and been stopped out immediately for approximately -20ish pips.
-B)-

But I didn't.

I didn't jump in to the continuation of the downtrend as I had other things I had to do, but +3 pips is always better than -20 pips


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  #26 (permalink)
Wauseon, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Thinkorswim
Broker: thinkorswim / PFGBest
Trading: ETFs
 
Posts: 63 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 19 given, 41 received

Today... I didn't like it.

The work schedule is messing with the trade schedule so ever time I looked at the charts, I didn't have a good opportunity.

Not everyday is a trading day I guess.

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  #27 (permalink)
Wauseon, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Thinkorswim
Broker: thinkorswim / PFGBest
Trading: ETFs
 
Posts: 63 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 19 given, 41 received

On the 594 tick chart the price had crossed my MAs with the green arrow and upward moving Elliot Osc. while I was away from the computer. I had expected this but I thought I would have time.

Trade 1)
Entry 1.62070
After the 3 pip target was triggered, I moved the stop up to what I thought was break even and was stopped out.
+3.3 pips

Trades 2 & 3)
Basically the same as for trade 1 but the ATM strategy wasn't setup because I entered on the 1500 tick chart.
I had to manually set a limit and stop orders on the chart.
Entry 1.62058
+1.7 pips
Entry 1.62085
+4 pips

Trade 4)
I set the ATM on my NinjaTrader chart and entered again.
I still had all 3 legs of my strategy ladder.
After the 3 pip target was triggered I moved the stop up to what I thought was break even and was again stopped out.
I'm going to have to re-think that moving the stop after 3 pips rule. It worked well for a while.
+2.3 pips

All 4 trades taken in a period of 19 minutes.

I took 4 separate trades instead of riding one because I felt I was chasing after missing the entry that I wanted.

I had to leave "The Trade Cave" to do other stuff (Work ) but I reached my goal of >= +10 pips per day, so I'm content


Total for today:

+11.3 pips

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  #28 (permalink)
Wauseon, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Thinkorswim
Broker: thinkorswim / PFGBest
Trading: ETFs
 
Posts: 63 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 19 given, 41 received

I got up this morning after a hard night on the job to find a green TSI arrow awaiting me.
However, after waiting for my EMA crossover, I received a pink short counter trend arrow.

I watched it for about an hour on the 594 tick chart.
The 1500 tick chart was in a strong down trend but was consolidating at the time and I was hesitant to chase the move.

A side note: I'm thinking about just trading the 1500 tick chart since the trends are longer and more pronounced but due to my work schedule etc. It's difficult to find the time.

Of course, I want to get rid of the job and trade full time, so maybe I should just find the time.

Anyway

I finally received a big bear candle which dropped below the EMAs and the Elliot Osc. was heading down.

I decided to go for it:

Entry 1.60701

I sweated for about 10 minutes and got a long counter trend arrow before my 1st (3 pip) target was triggered.
+3 pips

I moved the stop to just above the faster EMA instead of my entry this time. If stopped, it would have been a true break even with no profit on the trade.

When the 2nd yellow counter trend arrow appeared, I decided to take my money and run exiting at 1.60482
+21.9 pips

Total +24.9 pips

I waited for a while for the long trade but the price did the same thing as before and is now stuck in a range on the 594 pip chart and sort of on the 1500 tick chart.


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  #29 (permalink)
Wauseon, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Thinkorswim
Broker: thinkorswim / PFGBest
Trading: ETFs
 
Posts: 63 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 19 given, 41 received

I circled the time frame where the trades are and the colored arrows show the trades.
It's a little difficult to see on this chart

1) I waited for the setup I wanted and got it. It was a long trade in a downtrend that I probably shouldn't have made. I got out of it when the price neared a dashed pivot line. I adjusted the 2nd target down to just below the pivot line and it was triggered.

+9.1 pips


2) The indicators were still long so I got back in despite the downtrend. The trade immediately turned and I was stopped.

-10.3 pips


3) After the indicators turned short I got in and took the first target quickly then I moved the 2nd target down under the pivot line again.

+5.2 pips


4) This was a good setup with the trend changing upward. I got in a little late and didn't get the full potential.
Again, the first target triggered (3 pips) and I got "a funny feeling" and moved the 2nd target down again.
It triggered for a little less than the first.

+4.2 pips


It looked like the price was going into a range.

Total for today: +8.2 pips


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  #30 (permalink)
Wauseon, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Thinkorswim
Broker: thinkorswim / PFGBest
Trading: ETFs
 
Posts: 63 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 19 given, 41 received


Only one baby trade today. The failure to adapt to this temporary work schedule is making it hard to find time to trade.

Anyway, This was a follow the rules, kinda, trade. Typically, the plan calls for me to wait for a red or green TSI arrow.
The price was retracing after a green arrow (6 candles previously) and was bouncing off of the faster EMA. The ECO2New2 indicator had turned back up and I had just received a green dot on the TSI line. I was, however, at the top of the Bollinger Band on the indicator so maybe this wasn't such a good trade after all.

I took the trade (having not noticed the BB) and set the usual targets of 3 pips for the 1st target and 10 pips for the 2nd.

When the 1st target triggered I moved the stop up to my entry and was shortly there after stopped out.

Entry:1.39870
1st exit:1.39904 +3.4 pips
2nd exit (Stopped) +0.1 pips

Total for this trade: +3.5 pips

I am unhappy with this trade because I feel if I hadn't moved the stop (which is part of the plan) I would have caught more of the upward move. The 2nd target was just below the pivot and would have triggered.
In hind sight I should have moved the stop to just below the fast EMA instead. If it had triggered, I would have had a break even or small loss on the trade.

I was too timid... again


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May 31, 2011


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