Hi All. Been lurking for a while. Had the e mail about the comp from the big fella, and thought why not. I could do with a nice shiny bit of kit. Gave me a couple of ideas for after the comp as well... But that's another story.
My trading has spanned more years than I care to remember, it's the wrong side of 20+ years in any case. So you could say I've been around the block more than once or twice. As for the type of trader I am? Well, I prefer pure price action, reading the tape, bare ass naked trading, dark siding etc. I don't like indicators.
Having said that, I have worked with just about every type of indicator at least 3 times. But the thing is though... I tweek, and I fiddle. I'll set up an indicator alongside my bare chart keep an eye on for a few days/weeks, then discard it and concentrate on pure P A again. I once had an indicator that I developed that was right about 8 times out of ten... I ditched it.
See the thing is I could never tell when those two times were coming, and that cost me my fair share of grief. The indicators would cloud my judgement.
My way of P A, trend lines and sup and res is right for me. It's certainly not the only way to trade. What works for you is the 'right' way to trade regardless of what anyone else says or thinks. The key to trading is knowing yourself. Making money in this career is easy. It's the holding on to it that's hard.
Anyway before I ramble on and bore the pants off everyone;
The blog and the contest.
Now I looked at Big Mikes' e mail mid way through a tweaking session after I had finished for the day. (Friday. Always an early close).
It's those tweeks I am going to trade.
I have set up a demo account with 5,000 in it, So it's a bit more real life. I'll always demo first whether I am tweeking or seeing how an EA runs. I never back test, only forward. Back testing for me is like trading with last months newspaper and getting the order to your broker by carrier pidgeon! Trades will be from 1 to 5 lots. I may even start with micro lots to the first hundred or so. I'll lose less that way as well!.
I'll be taking the signals off the chart. Usd/Jpy, Gbp/Jpy, Usd/Cad, Gbp/Usd, Eur/Usd, Eur/Gbp, Usd/Chf, and Gbp/Chf All hour charts. And... Just to make it really interesting, this broker does indices as well, so ftse, dax, dow and s an p on 30 min and 5 min chart.
Now you may be thinking that all this is a bit too much to track, but hey, I get bored easy!
No seriously, I have alerts set up so it will flash up while I am on 'the other side' as it were with the real stuff, then I can flip back, expand the chart and see if it's a viable set up. Oh yeah, Viewer discretion totally rules.
It may be that I take all the trades, but it will be more likely to take the ones I like. If it does become too much I will have to drop some pairs.
Doing the hourly charts is not a problem, despite tracking 8 pairs. Taking on the extra 4 indices on 30 and 5 min charts may well be too much. Lets give it a go eh?
Targets will be at my discretion as well as SL's. I tend to let the market tell me when to get out and don't have a lot of fixed tp's and sl's, although they do exist. Trades as I said will be from 1 to 5 lots. But I also hedge with correlations both positive and negative. Also I sometimes 'hedge' with the same currency. Not technically true hedging, but you know what I mean. It's also something I believe you Americans are not allowed to do.
Trades will be in real time as much as other commitments allow. I hate post trading. So easy to be a 'star' trader.
Length of trades? I'll see how they play out.
Trades will also be added to, if they turn out to be runners.
I'll post up a chart of an 'un tweeked' indi in a sec, then post up a tinkered indi.
I actually have no idea how this will go as it's as new to you as it is to me. I may get bored with it all in a week or so, who knows. Adjusting indicators? Some might call it 'curve fitting' or call it 'back trading'. Call it 'Betty' for all I care. If it works it works.
I hope you can understand my phraseology and writing style. Apologies in advance if you cannot. I am English. Hell, I'll apologise for that as well.
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Well, it's 11.30. pm gmt time, and the Asian session doesn't start for another half hour. Pre market brokers are open for work though, but it is not a good time to trade. You can get pulled left, right and centre. It's a good way to find out your fear factor though!
With the USA markets mainly closed for a bank holiday, trading will probably be light. so volatility and volume will be low.
The reason I am sitting in front of a screen is to see how these arrows are working. To see how they paint.
Turns out, they paint either on the close of bar or at the start of the next bar.
I haven't seen them repaint, although that doesn't mean they don't.
I won't post any charts up 'cause I don't want anyone jumping in a trade under these condition.
I'll be around about 6 am my gmt time to see if anything is happening, but with only one bit of important news out of Germany in the morning, it could make for a boring day.
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I am about half way through my usual cycle of adding indicators. Trying to 'improve' the perception.
I then add a bit here and a bit there until it is hard to see what I am trying to see, which is how is the price reacting around key levels.
I then strip off all the indicators and trade naked for awhile before the urge comes over me again and the process is repeated.
I will resit the urge though to 'mess; with those charts. That is how they will stay for the purpose of this blog. I may delete indicators, but I will not add to them.
It is sadly something we humans are preprogrammed to do. Take something and then attempt to 'improve' on it,
The simplest way to trade for good results is P.A. and a trend line. You don't even need two trend lines. One will do. And in it's simplest form. Long above and short below.
Actually had a short signal on cable earlier at 5.15.56secs. time. It's not a good signal though as the Asian session has provided a sideways move through lack of interest.
Well, after watching these for a few hours, a couple of points have stood out.
1st one being, all those charts were just to much to focus on. It made me tired very quickly. I am just getting over flu so that may have something to do with it. But being tired and straining your eyes is not conducive to good trading. (Warning storey about that a little later on).
Secondly, the hour forex along with the 30 min and 5 min indice charts had audio alarms set up and I had changed the pitch and note of some of them... In hindsight... not a very good move. Think of being in a watchmakers a couple of seconds before 12 o'clock!!!
I did get a fair rendition of the 'Stars and stripes' though.
Again. Way too much.
The indices have been changed to 4 hr and 15 minute charts. (Now I am used to 'scalping' the indices so we will have to see how it goes). The indices are now to the fore on the chart screen. The fx charts are the same as the ones I follow in real life so I am using them. Just flipping between brokers.
Now this brings up another slight problem.
The broker feeds are different of course. So the signals are not the same. Although it shouldn't make much of a problem.
Had to explain to a fellow trader a few months back that it didn't matter what candle you were being shown by your charts as the data for our intents and purpose is corrupt. I showed him a chart from a uk broker of the hourly cable and the 'same' chart from a usa broker. As that hour bar was closing. One chart had an up bar, the other had a down bar!
Honestly it was like lining 5 shovels up against a wall and telling him to take his pick! The confusion shown on his face as his brain tried to unscramble why and how was a true picture.
I had to explain the it didn't matter what chart you were trading as you didn't have to get bar choice right. All you had to do was get the main direction right. And that the chart that was 'wrong' would have been the better chart to trade.
The cable signal I mentioned earlier turned out to be good after all. BUT, 3 hours later a reversal arrow popped up and the price went back up to past where the entry would have been. Would it have spooked you out, taken your stop loss? It then reversed back down on the next bar and is currently 34 pips away from entry. So not a great move.
It's also important to get a clear view of your chart. Have a look at the top right chat of the S and P 4 hr, then look at the expanded chart. See the difference. The audio would have come up but you could quite easily have missed it.
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