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Phoenix
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Phoenix

  #61 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Staines Surrey England
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: MT4 and spread betting
Broker/Data: Main one Alpari with mt4
Favorite Futures: GBP/JPY
 
Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 0 given, 43 received

Fri morning, nearly 8 am my time.

The question:

Will it fall through strong support or bounce?

The meters at the moment say yes, it will fall through.

The chart says no, resistance is too heavy and it has held off a few attempts to breech,

At the present moment I have a small short.

It's now a waiting game!

This point is also yesterdays low.
As mentioned, I am short but very watchful of a turn up at this point.

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  #62 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Staines Surrey England
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: MT4 and spread betting
Broker/Data: Main one Alpari with mt4
Favorite Futures: GBP/JPY
 
Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
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Just had this flash up on Google.

Tsunami Alert for New Zealand, the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Hawaii, and others. Waves expected over the next few hours, caused by 8.9 earthquake in Japan.


Bit daunting eh?

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  #63 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Staines Surrey England
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: MT4 and spread betting
Broker/Data: Main one Alpari with mt4
Favorite Futures: GBP/JPY
 
Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 0 given, 43 received


Added to short cable.

Before news came out which was never intended to be 'great shakes' Triple digit profit was reached, then half hour later triple digit deficit was reached, making for an um ar moment.

Have also bought usd/jpy purely on the news of that Tsunami announcement in Japan.

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  #64 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Staines Surrey England
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: MT4 and spread betting
Broker/Data: Main one Alpari with mt4
Favorite Futures: GBP/JPY
 
Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
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.

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  #65 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Staines Surrey England
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: MT4 and spread betting
Broker/Data: Main one Alpari with mt4
Favorite Futures: GBP/JPY
 
Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 0 given, 43 received

Well, throughout the first few hours of the news from Japan, the JPY meter was in the 9 and very red, meaning very strong.

So a Tsunami follows an earthquake in Japan, death and destruction follow, yet the currency stays very, very strong.


Artificially managed? Or am I missing something.

It is also the first time I have ever taken a trade without reference to a chart.

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  #66 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Staines Surrey England
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: MT4 and spread betting
Broker/Data: Main one Alpari with mt4
Favorite Futures: GBP/JPY
 
Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 0 given, 43 received

"Have also bought usd/jpy purely on the news of that Tsunami announcement in Japan. "...

..."It is also the first time I have ever taken a trade without reference to a chart"


We l l l l l l l l l l l He l l l l l l l l l l l. That'll never, ever happen again!

Previously; Throughout the entire history of the trading world. A natural disaster strikes a country causing death and destruction on a sudden and far reaching scale and their currency will fall like a brick in water. Even quicker (2 bricks tied together) if it's a man made disaster...

... Apart from that one day I decide to place a trade against the currency of that country.

JPY has been strong against everything for the entire day!.. How?

I had to start juggling a few accounts around when it became clear what was never going to happen. Not just for here, but for real life as well. There was so much ducking and diving, covering, flipping, hedging and laying off going on that it was impossible to take screen shots for here.
The result being that real accounts are roughly back to the start of the trading day with the exception of one that is showing a loss, and this one, on here is showing a total profit for 3 weeks running of $71.24.

The conservative profit built up over the length of 3 weeks has gone, and if this was the real world and my only source of income. I would have one week to make the rent and put food on the table!

How come the sudden lack of insight?

Airport run.

I was gone for a couple of hours to do a good deed. (Would have been a lot bleeding cheaper if I'd paid for a cab).

It is ALWAYS at these points in your life when Mr Law and his son. (Sod). Will come to pay a visit.
Elsewhere. stops, TP's, flips etc were in place to account for the worst outcome apart from on here.

The long above, short below thing would have worked had I been here to work it.

A couple of charts to follow to show the week close, but take notice,. It is the last you will see of them.

Next week will be my trading charts.

Warning!

You will find them boring.

Next week, prepare to get naked. Make sure you turn the central heating up. You don't want chilly extremities!
Well, there will be a 'bottom' indicator, but this is mainly to alert for divergences and is still and always a work in progress.
So not entirely 'naked trading'... You can keep your socks on.


I will try over the weekend when I have more time to give my views on indicators and ea's.
Anyone who is struggling with indicators, trading, and making a profit, may glean something form my views.
And they are just that. My views. Yours can and will be different.

Good! That's why we have a market.

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  #67 (permalink)
Site Administrator
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Thanks for posting on a difficult day.

I find this quote sums it up nicely: "Trade what you see, not what you think". I'm not a fundamental trader, I'm a technical trader. So it doesn't matter if inventory is up or down, if the fed raises or lowers rates, etc -- what matters is what the market is doing. Moving up, or moving down. I don't try to catch falling knives and I don't try to sell the top. There is good money in between if you are patient to follow the trend established.

Mike

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  #68 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Thanks Big Mike.
I have actually read that quote myself. Cannot remember who said it though.


The following hour chart of usd/jpy shows that there was no way that price even attempted a reversal.
(For Japan currency to fail we want usd/jpy chart to be going up right)

This is the best example you will ever get to never ever take a trade on impulse.

Check, double check, then check again.

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  #69 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
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Indicators EA's etc

Let me first start by saying this.

All indicators and EA's will all work perfectly and given the right market conditions they will assist you in making money using your charts.

Get that. They all work! All those new never seen before powerful named turbo charged ea's and systems that hit your inbox with relentless force each week ALL work.
The good news is that you can buy one, and that sometimes comes with upgrades before you have even taken it out of the imaginary box, so that you can make even more money.

But hold on a bit. Before you whip out your credit card. Lets back up a bit and re read my opening statement. There's a disclaimer and get out clause in there.

(GIVEN THE RIGHT MARKET CONDITIONS).

A lot of seasoned and grizzled traders. Pro's, amateur's casual observers, already understand this. For those who are just starting out and actually believe all the hype and drivel spouted, well, keep reading you will understand a lot more in a few minutes and could save you a few bob too.

So, given the right market conditions means that when these 'tools' were conceived, they worked on the data available at the time. Or even tested on back data. The problem is though that 'market conditions' change constantly. The variants that go into the market change with the buys and the sells, the block orders even the time of day with countries opening and closing for business. It all affects the input you see on your chart.

None of these indicators or ea's existed before computers. Or very few did. It would have been too time consuming.

When I first started reading charts, the charts were drawn by hand! End of day stuff, updated each night for a plan of action the next day. The only 'clues' you had (after a few weeks of course) were areas of support and resistance and the 'numbers'.
I suppose you could have updated on a hourly basis but you would have needed a good data feed and it was quite expensive back then.

Why have I just told you that little bit of my history?
To give you a clearer picture of charts. Price was, is and always will be king of trading.
All indicators, ea's, etc are derived from PRICE. Those weighted, simple, exponential smoothed percentages etc are ALL derived from the price. They cannot and would not exist otherwise.
It is for this reason that all indicators lag. Some may seem to be predictive and 'leading' but how can they be. Until the price has printed on the chart the indicator cannot exist.
An indicator that can tell you where price is going to go. When price does not know where it is going. Really?

When computers became available to the masses for trading, plotting the indicators in real time was instant. You had a few of the big traders bring out their own indicators and sold them to willing students, and the ball started rolling from there.
Now you have hundreds if not thousands of indicator to choose from. Some are still being sold, most are free.
This rolled into the EA's Those magical box of tricks that would be your key to a fortune.
These ea's allowed your computer to trade for you.
The magic that happens is only pieces of script (code) being actioned when certain conditions are met by the price on your chart such as a moving average cross or when price hits a certain level. Exits are the same way.
Nothing 'mystical' is going on. To computer geeks it is a simple thing. When a mechanic looks under the hood of your car, he has a fair idea what problem your engine is having. He knows what the engine is doing and how it works. If you know nothing about the internal working of the combustion engine, you look under the hood and go 'Duh'.

Those looooong pages that try to sell the EA's (Now we are getting videos from actors telling us how great their never before seen EA will make you rich) will not reveal how it all works.

Because the market IS a constantly changing variable. Auto trading is subject to huge drawdowns and if the conditions in the code are not met, the ea will not work and send orders to your broker. So if it trips a trade it may not trip an exit.

There are hundreds of ea's out there now. It seems a new one is unveiled every day. Some vendors bring out a new one each week. Most of them will have a part of the coding changed and become re packaged.
This then is the reason why the magic stops working. The code has not been 'actioned' by market conditions and is sleeping.

I'm not saying that all indicators or all Ea's are useless. Some are pretty impressive. I even have some I use myself.
The search is for one that performs adequately over all markets conditions and produces overall profit as against overall loss.

This has just been an introduction for people who have never looked under the hood and have no idea of how things work.

Just remember price is and always will be king. And everything is derived from price. The trouble with 'indicators' (And they are called this because the indicate what may happen) is that you come to rely on them, choose to look at them over price, instead of using them as a assistant to help you come to a trading decision.

Learn to read the chart, read the price action. You will get a clearer picture.

If I were going to teach someone to trade again I would just sit them down in front of an hourly chart and tell them to just watch and observe. Look for 'congestion' areas. Then after a week I would simply ask them which way was price going to go.

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  #70 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Staines Surrey England
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: MT4 and spread betting
Broker/Data: Main one Alpari with mt4
Favorite Futures: GBP/JPY
 
Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 0 given, 43 received


Well made the money back on cable. A pair I know quite well. Or so I thought.
I actually made it all back and more early on in the morning, then gave it all back! So end of day should have been better then shown. But shudda/cudda. Whatever. Could always have blown up a bit more.

Didn't fancy holding overnight, so start over tomorrow first thing again.

I sometimes have trouble with this though. Waiting for the right entry to continue trend, then ending up taking the opposite trade only for main trend to resume. That's trading and the answer lies with me for allowing myself to be influenced to the fact that I think the trend has changed when it hasn't.

I mean, this is the main reason I got into fx trading. The trends. They last longer then shares or futures tend to and I end up talking myself into a wrong trade then having to grasp it all back again over the day.

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