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Phoenix


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Phoenix

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  #51 (permalink)
 plethora 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Rithmic
Trading: GC
 
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  #52 (permalink)
Phoenixrising8
Staines Surrey England
 
 
Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
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Nothing happening much for me today. A few other bits to attend to, a couple of trades running. A couple of proper hedges running and one 'improper' 'hedge' Where I have buy and sells on the same pair. It's something that I don't think your American brokers allow.

Why would you want to go long and short at the same time on the same pair anyway?

Well, one answer is that if a trade starts going wrong on you and your perception of 'why' you took the trade still hold true in your view. It's a way of slowing down a loss. Then when it turns back your way, you 'weight' it even more, so the profit/loss, turns profitable for you.

Exit could be for two reasons.

One. The Balance goes positive: At this point you could still be in the red with one trade, but balance is profitable and you close all to retain profitable outcome.

Two. You run the profit, possibly adding to it and closing out the initial trade appropriately. Remember while you are getting on top of things the initial trade is still bleeding.

The first few times you try this, expect to mess up big time. So don't try it for real. Not just yet anyway.
Worst case scenario. Your timing is off and and you see a bad trade go good... then bad again... A lot worse then it was in the first place.

If your broker doesn't allow this type of trading. You can always use a 2nd broker to do this. Bit more complex, but do able.

Been looking at 'cycles' again. Doesn't matter which ones. They are all the same, same as indicators. They are all the same.
They are all 'composed' the same way. From the same source.

A bit more on indicators and whatever later on. Most are 'lagging' some even 'seem' to be predictive. But they are not.
I'll explain more later.

Non Elliot wavers say the waves look great after the fact, and are too ambiguous during the fact. EVERYTHING is the same.
Later though.

Looking at 'Schaff' trend cycles now, but I 'adapt' them so they are not 'Schaff' cycles. They are my cycles.

Markets change, or more importantly circumstances change markets, so Adaptability is the key. But, history repeats.

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  #53 (permalink)
Phoenixrising8
Staines Surrey England
 
 
Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
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Just gone long cable.

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  #54 (permalink)
Phoenixrising8
Staines Surrey England
 
 
Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
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Going to go for something easier than cycles, waves etc. I don't think they are very good for shorter time frame trading and are much better suited for longer frames. One problem with that being deeper pockets needed to suffer bigger draw downs. So another time maybe.

This is something much simpler. Long above. Short below. Yellow line being the long/short entry.
2 charts. right hand side. 4 hr. Left, 15 mins

Bad time to place trade though. Markets are just about to go to sleep until Asian open. But both prices are above yellow.

15 min chart is clearly showing sideways movement. Not a good time to open trade.

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  #55 (permalink)
Phoenixrising8
Staines Surrey England
 
 
Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
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Well, the over nights took trade the wrong way and is under the line on the 15, yet still above on the 4 hr.

London session has yet to open.

It's looking like there is only one thing to do.

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  #56 (permalink)
Phoenixrising8
Staines Surrey England
 
 
Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 0 given, 43 received

.

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  #57 (permalink)
Phoenixrising8
Staines Surrey England
 
 
Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
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.

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  #58 (permalink)
Phoenixrising8
Staines Surrey England
 
 
Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
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Also need to be aware of GB interest decision at 12 o'clock my time. Hoping it will stay static. Economy is very fragile still.
Small move will send it off like a rocket.

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  #59 (permalink)
Phoenixrising8
Staines Surrey England
 
 
Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
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Closing... Just in case

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  #60 (permalink)
Phoenixrising8
Staines Surrey England
 
 
Posts: 75 since Nov 2010
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The decision to close proved fortuitous, as you can see from the follow on chart a few hours later. I think even half an hour after closing the trade, the long still looked favourable. Obviously a few hours further on and you can see the short side is the one in favour.

Reasons for taking the trade in the first place?

Price was above the yellow line on the 4 hr chart. A simple long above, short below trading decision.

Reasons for NOT taking the trade?

1) The worst possible time of day in normal 24 hr market conditions to trade, Barring news announcements. America had basically shut for the day and the currency market is in relative limbo until Asia opens a few hours later.

2) Because of the lack of liquidity, you can be pushed and pulled anywhere on that chart. A very real likely hood of being at least 10/15 pips away from where you want to be, and it will seem like you move 2 pips away, 1 pip back every hour. Even going into the Asian session.

3) The Asian session most of the time can be notoriously slow. It does have its moments, but generally speaking you will be even further away from where you want price to be after a couple of hours of painful screen watching.

4) No momentum = little movement.

So a few good reasons for not taking the trade. Boil it down, turn it around and ask what you do need to take a trade.

1) Timing! Best chance for reaching targets is in early part of sessions. UK/Europe open and USA open. The pros have got better things to do than trading, They can be on the golf course by 11.30 if they play their cards right.

2) The liquidity problem. You need a flow to build up momentum to carry your trade along. If you set sail on a wind sail boat and the wind died off, the vessel would just sit, drifting one way then the other and going nowhere. When the wind picks up, the sails billow out and pushes you along at a fair rate of knots to reach your destination. Assuming the wind, (Crowd) is pushing where you want to go. If you want to go in the other direction... well, you might just as well try to push a very large boulder up a very, very steep hill. It can be done, but it's a great deal of hard work.

3 words then.

Timing. Market momentum.

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