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My path of becoming a trader
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My path of becoming a trader

  #91 (permalink)
Elite Member
Zagreb, Croatia, Europe
 
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Ichimoku table for this week

Less tradable pairs then last week. Lots of pairs in the consolidation, but certainly more downtrend pairs then uptrend.

Last week has been choppy, closed some of my trades on BE after + 70, some negative, some positive. Overall small positive.

The markets are non-linear, dynamic systems. Chaos analysis has determined that market prices are highly random with a trend component. The amount of the trend component varies from market to market and from time frame to time frame.

Manus J. Donahue III
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  #92 (permalink)
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Hi my faithful readers :-)

I've been away from the markets a bit, really got sick / tired of charts. I'm back now, will try to make a difference this time.

I'm using my ichimoku strategy, it's slow, but it can be profitable. At the moment, it's all mixed up, and there is no clear pair to trade according to the strategy rules, maybe they're too strict.

Nevertheless, as you know I'm always trying something new and exploiting price action trading, I've decided to take this AUD/USD short position.

From the weekly chart you can really see overextension of the market, with 4th upward trend line, very steep and the last week candle, which shows a bit of market indecisiveness.

From the MACD point of view, it's clearly a bearish divergence at sight.

I've put a stop @ 1,0805 above recent week's high and profit target open.

If you take a look at the 4h chart, you can also see some bearish divergence on the MACD, and market unable to break above those previous highs - just touching them and obviously clear out the sellers stop orders.

That's it from me now! Take care!

The markets are non-linear, dynamic systems. Chaos analysis has determined that market prices are highly random with a trend component. The amount of the trend component varies from market to market and from time frame to time frame.

Manus J. Donahue III
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  #93 (permalink)
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kingich View Post
I watched a webinar about trading psychology and it really hit me over the head and totally recognized myself in the presentation of the teacher.


He is talking about a trader, his patient and his own looking on his trading.


Guy says:
1. I consistently pick wrong side of the trade.
2. I let loosers run and cut winners short
3. I'm buying the highs and selling lows.
4. I micromanage the trade.
5. I'm unable to trade with the trend
6. My losses have made me question everything I have done.


This is something I have been doing over and over again. There is a quick test also, so you can check are you compulsive contrarian trader (just count your yes answers)


1. Do you always prefer the road less traveled?
2. Do you often do things the hard way?
3. Do you develop strong directional biases in trading?
4. Do you rely heavily on intuition in your trading?
5. Are you focused on picking tops and bottoms even during strong trend?
6. Do you typically get in too early?
7. Do you regularly average down?
8. Do you tend to get stopped at swing highs/lows?
9. Does a pullback in an uptrend usually feel bearish to you in real time?
10. Does a pullback in a downtrend usually feel bullish to you in real time?


I must say I have 9 out of ten symptoms. Hope you did the test better then me. There are some actions that should be done to reduce that behavior, I'll talk about them in my next post.

Hey kingich, I really like the journal. that first post was so honest it struck a chord with me. Growing up, I read more than the average kid so i coasted through the first years of school. I assumed that I was naturally talent and did not apply myself like everyone else did growing up but after I reached a certain age I realized my results weren't reflecting my ego any more. After that, I had to put in 3x the effort as everyone else to catch up/make up for the bad habits I developed.

I think the problem for me lied with an inability to stomach criticism which led to me shutting down or giving up whenever I heard some constructive criticism. I used to question or disregard my teachers when they gave me poor grades on assignments. What do they know with their +10 years of teaching and masters degree I must have thought lol. Sometimes the fear of being committed to something that doesn't work is an issue as well, that is why I date so many women but never settle down haha. I am just wondering whether you are doing the same thing by not sticking to one trading method for any extensive period of time?

Have you considered writing down the rules you keep breaking next to your computer and going over them before entering/exiting trades? Also, I read another one of your posts how you don't want to turn trading into something boring. I think you may have to find a strategy that suits your personality but at the same time, trading well is not very exciting from what I've read from the biographies and online blurbs from the experienced traders.



Anyways, good luck man, you got one more faithful reader for your journal


Last edited by Bermudan Option; June 7th, 2011 at 12:12 AM.
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  #94 (permalink)
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Bermudan, thanks for your post, will answer you later.

I just wanted to register one trade, not on time but it's never late :-)

The markets are non-linear, dynamic systems. Chaos analysis has determined that market prices are highly random with a trend component. The amount of the trend component varies from market to market and from time frame to time frame.

Manus J. Donahue III
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  #95 (permalink)
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Hi friends,

long time no see:-)

I wasn't around so much as my previous month has been really intensive at work and haven't let me much time for this. Hopefully I'll manage to put those two together, and / or switch to this :-).

My biggest earnings I've made through long term chart analysis and trading that, and I've decided to give it more time then swing trading style where I've spent lot of time without effort and really was too much sucked into this that as it is time consuming, and a bit of an addiction :-)

I've prepared you my longer term chart analysis, don't like current market conditions, to be honest. Don't see much opportunities, EUR/USD is sitting on long term trend, but the angle of that trend is keeping me away somehow. Same thing with AUD/USD. With respective excessive trend phase, they're both showing divergences.

EUR/JPY is in some sort of support area, so long trades are possible from there.

GBP/CAD touched weekly channel line and made a really nice rejection out of it. Think there is space there, especially CAD is showing weakness on all battle fields.

AUD/JPY I'm waiting around 82 level where I'm going to buy. This is the pair with the highest rollover effect, it's bringing you just above 1 pip / day of positive interest, so can be nice carry trade as well.

Best regards and good trading to you all my friends!

ivan

The markets are non-linear, dynamic systems. Chaos analysis has determined that market prices are highly random with a trend component. The amount of the trend component varies from market to market and from time frame to time frame.

Manus J. Donahue III
Attached Thumbnails
My path of becoming a trader-eurusd.gif   My path of becoming a trader-eurjpy.gif   My path of becoming a trader-gbpcad.gif   My path of becoming a trader-audusd.gif   My path of becoming a trader-audjpy.gif  
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  #96 (permalink)
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good to see you "in work" . I opened couple weeks ago real account on forex too, I am trying to trade around EU open hours, after 25 trades 0,5 percent above zero ...it is quite comfortable to trade on 1h chart, but I am not used on currency markets. Still improving reading these charts. I will watch your steps.

best regards

Robert

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  #97 (permalink)
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diane, if I helped you in your trading, I think at least part of my effort has been acomplished. I haven't abandoned you guys, just I'm struggling with my regular job, trying to trade, searching myself.

I'm developing some fibbs strategy and on the charts I have murrey math lines and indicator that recognizes harmoncic patterns, just for observation. Mainly I'm trading fibonnaci and price action.

I've reduced my risk to 30 pips per trade, fixed, and profits to 100-120 pips. Soon as I've done that I've kind of improved. 100 pips stop is easy to hit, but 300 pips profit its not so easy to hit if you know what I mean.....same proportions but havent had same results.

I'm sending some screenshots of how my screen looks like now, and I hope I'll be more constant here with you guys.

best regards,

The markets are non-linear, dynamic systems. Chaos analysis has determined that market prices are highly random with a trend component. The amount of the trend component varies from market to market and from time frame to time frame.

Manus J. Donahue III
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  #98 (permalink)
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Look, I've changed my charts again :-)

Nevertheless, I must say I have jumped out of loosing mindset and succed to grow my balance no matter of trading style. There are still some searchings, but key thing was limiting my risk to 30 pips and 1 % of balance, and keeping my risk:reward ratio of 1:3 and rest took care of itself. I must say I recovered 75 % of my losses, still below water but slowly getting on surface....

For next week I'll be posting some chart and some analysis...

AUD/CHF

To be honest, I don't like trading against CHF at the moment, as this animal is strenghtening against all currencies. I dont know if there is Gold/CHF, or Oil/CHF but i guess it would be in a downtrend also. Nevertheless, there is overextension of beeing 5 days in a row below bollinger bands, and some divergence on 4h chart. Latest 1h chart shows weekly fibbonaci numbers, and if I see a price few hours above 0,8 will enhance me to try to take some longs there.

AUD/USD

Its hard to belive that a major trend has changed on aussie dollar.

There is a divergence on 4h chart, but on daily price action doesn't convince me to take longs. We'll see, price holds above weekly fibbs support (1,0550) and I might trade it.

CAD/CHF

6 day out of lower bolligner band on daily, wow. This swiss franc is insane. Divergence on 4h, price above support on 1h (weekly fibbs)...maybe long.

CAD/JPY violated lots of support areas...It shows some support around shaded areas, but not sure...

AUD/JPY huh, here I have to say that "if you cannot change your mind, you soon won't have anything left to change". I had multiple long trades there, and not a single short. Fortunatelly I've closed them all in positive. If you take a look at that grand chart of mine for audjpy, its currently at 50 % retracement from low-high this year, and holding a level of 82 will get me long again.

GBP/CAD, hm... First, resistance on daily, along with R1 fibbs... Divergence on 4h chart, price holding below 1,5980 and I'll short it.

125 Level has been great support to GBP/JPY, but not sure about this one. Have been really slow lately...EUR/USD moves hell of a lot more then this pair.

The markets are non-linear, dynamic systems. Chaos analysis has determined that market prices are highly random with a trend component. The amount of the trend component varies from market to market and from time frame to time frame.

Manus J. Donahue III
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My path of becoming a trader-audchf.png   My path of becoming a trader-audusd.png   My path of becoming a trader-cadchf.png   My path of becoming a trader-cadjpy.png   My path of becoming a trader-audjpy.png   My path of becoming a trader-gbpcad.png   My path of becoming a trader-gbpjyp.png  
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  #99 (permalink)
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Hi boys and girls,

again big pause from my side. Don't have really an explanation what's going on in my mind, but dispite all issues I'm back to trading and hope I will be more consistant in my writing now, and in my approach also.

I've returned to only strategy I had luck with, countertrend reversal to the 50-100 SMA area, with turning of MACD histogram as a filter, and targeting 30-40 pips from the whole move, which can be up to 150 pips, as I'm looking on 4h charts.

I'll be following that trading style I've picked up (not my invention), from Jennifer's Notes - Home

Had some trades last week, and today. I'm going to start posting again from today.

These are todays trade and results.

EURGBP + 30
EURCAD +30
NZDUSD breakeven

happy trading to you all....

The markets are non-linear, dynamic systems. Chaos analysis has determined that market prices are highly random with a trend component. The amount of the trend component varies from market to market and from time frame to time frame.

Manus J. Donahue III
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My path of becoming a trader-nzdusd.png   My path of becoming a trader-eurgbp.png   My path of becoming a trader-eurcad.png  
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  #100 (permalink)
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Zagreb, Croatia, Europe
 
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Posts: 110 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 55 given, 71 received


Long time no see. I've been around here, sometimes trading, sometimes not. It's still a struggle for me. No easy way here....I hope that lots of you became profitable traders in the meantime.

I've started updating the blog (http://mytradingway.blogspot.com) since the beginning of the year, and will continue to keep my journal on futures.io (formerly BMT) as well.

I've started trading harmonics, and pure support & resistance lines on longer term charts, where price obviously stopped and reversed several times in the past for one reason or the other. I'm trying to exploit these zones.

Since currently I don't see any significant support & resistance on currency pairs, I've exploited the situation, along with my vacation (which I'm spending in front of the charts - now you see that I'm heavy weight patient), to trade shorter term trades on longer term charts.

I will give you an overview of how it went.

The markets are non-linear, dynamic systems. Chaos analysis has determined that market prices are highly random with a trend component. The amount of the trend component varies from market to market and from time frame to time frame.

Manus J. Donahue III
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