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Day Time TJ for CL starting 2/22 with pre mkt & post-mortem analysis
2/25 Pre-Mkt price is neutral as o/n trading hovered around prior settlement. 3 events that gives me a down bias all occurred in “K” period:
1. “K” period was a late day spike down before the close.
2. “K” closed out the mkt lower @ 97.37
3. “K’s volume was significantly higher than the rest of the day.
If price didn’t find lower value or lower than where it’s been recently balancing in o/n trading. I suspect that chances are the mkt may make a push down during the mkt session hours.
Commentary
The mkt did not gap down as it opened @ 97.09 while yesterday’s low was @ 97.04. However, the question remains will the price attempt to move down further resulting in a lower value causing a new balance area to develop lower, or will price revert back to previous balance at around the 99.50 area?
Conflicting info. “A” thru “D” has shown a tight range and lower balancing; although I’m getting long signals on my 1250, the 30min chart says good chance that the mkt likely to go down further.
Today, an almost an exact mkt type day as yesterday, complete balance, although I’m closing shop early 1:30P. Good opportunities were hard to come by today given the tight range all day (almost every time period hit today’s poc like yesterday – sign of strict balance), unless one was prepared for it psychologically to trade the tight rotations. I wasn’t, in fact I was fearful of entering and giving up today’s profit since my expectations of the market were more of a firm drive lower. I was not able to adjust to the mkt type day as a result, 1 trade is all I came away with. My weakness is that if it were a losing trade, I would've felt compelled to trade regardless to make up for the loss; I need to swallow losses as this is one of my weaknesses.
Trade Entries for 2/24/2011 CL 4-11
T#1 - Long @ 97.37 for a scalp. @11:24AM the CL mkt showed a little life with a 1250V long signal along and a 1500 contract volume spike. This told me that at best the mkt will attempt to reach the 2/23 poc and the current high. Exit near the current high with +35 ticks with an adjustable stop @ 97.18. My stops are sometimes large; I’m not happy about it; trying to improve my risk/reward (r/r) by using more of my 250V chart for my scalp entries and using pull backs clusters to place my stop on the other side of.
No more trades for today. Net Today (Ticks): +35 Tics.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Thanks for your patience. The format of journaling has changed a bit. All relavant material for the trading journal has been put into a PDF file for easy access and reading. As the thread continues on, there will probably be more changes to the format or content to facilitate things that will improve the ease of compiling and reading it.
Going forward, because of conflicting schedules between completing the TJ immediately @ post mkt and daily personal errands, the TJ will be submitted, in most cases, during the evening hours.
Reissued new version for the following 3 reasons:
1) There were P&L rounding problems where the Ninja trades spread sheet imported into Excel was not enforcing rounding - (Fixed)
2) P&L in ticks was added in the summary portion of the Trade Entry Commentary section - (Fixed)
3) When attempting to open the PDF from the futures.io (formerly BMT) site I received a "currupted file error..." in Adobe - (Replaced file with updated version)
I don't think you have had a losing trade yet. Can you give me some insight on what your triggers are? Are you taking the 250 volume trigger in the direction of the 1250 volume? Appreciate any insight you may have.
I use both charts, the 1250 and 250 for entries only; I use the other longer term charts are to analyze the market, recognize patterns, and locate levels to trade off of. When entering a trade I usually use the 1250 to see reactions or triggers at established levels. I can only verbally describe the reactions as a certain way price behaves before it makes a move in the direction I’m anticipating. In the case of reversals, for example, I wait for price to reach an area or level where I think odds are high for a reversal. I wait for price to settle down and congest a bit; while congesting, ideally, the trigger appears after price makes 2 or more attempts in the original direction and then fails and convincingly price spikes the other way as it pierces through the Hull Moving Average. At this point you can enter at any time; depending upon several factors you can either try to wait for a pullback to enter or you can just hit the best bid/offer depending on your direction to enter the anticipated move. There are times when I don’t use either chart and I’ll trade off of the 30Min; my risk/reward tend to be larger.
Check out the 1250 chart issued in my journal on 3/2. You will see that I wait for price to try other attempts to continue in its direction and then fails the other way above/below the HMA.
Regarding the 250 – not as important as the 1250 but I can use the 250 with the 1250 if I want to enter in on pullbacks and place my stop under a 250 pullback-price cluster to get better risk/reward. If price spikes too high the other way on the 1250 and risk is too large, I’ll use the 250 for that purpose. I will also use the 250 for quick scalps and the trigger to do that on the 250 is the same in nature as that on the 1250.
I would like to clear up a possible misconception of my performance. I do have my share of losing trades. I have losing days as well. I’ve had 3 consecutive losers on 2/24 that wiped out my morning gains. It’s been a nice streak of wins since joining the forum but it’s not normal and I will lose a lot as you’ll see as time goes on. The reason I’m here in this forum is to improve my journaling abilities in the hope of making me more aware of my weaknesses in order to bring my losing trades under control.
