I woke up this morning and watched in horror half of yesterday profits gone. I had doubts about my target. What if my target was overoptimistic? What if that was all the move could give and now is turning around? After all it is going up in an area full of traffic. I considered closing it right there and take whatever was left. But then again that wasn't part of the plan. Also the bars that were standing out didn't make any lower lows, on the contrary the lows were providing support. Finally I had already moved my stop so I was risking less than 2%. So I didn't close the position and left to work.
The whole day at work I was thinking that my stop would be hit and I would have taken a loss. When I came back home I looked at the charts to see my tp achieved and the price much higher.
Profit 80 pips
After trade thoughts: I feel somehow lucky with this trade. Indeed I acted according to the plan, I think I did a good analysis with the little knowledge I have so far. But still I think I was overoptimistic with it. Indeed I had doubts if the target should be so high and the traffic on the left side was too dense and too close. On the other side now I am a bit sad about all the money I left on the table. Oh well. All that matters is that I traded well and I made my equity curve a bit greener.
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28 Feb
AUDCAD is in a uptrend in daily but it is stuck in a trading range around parity. That range forms a diamond pattern and since we are in a uptrend my best bet is the continuation of the trend. In the Point and Figure chart we have a possible multiple top breakout.
Long @0.998
Stop @ 0.992
TP @ 1.009
It opened with a gap down and we are trading into a high traffic.
1 March
I was hopping to catch a nice move in NZDUSD. In the daily it is still bullish but the last major swing high is lower than the previous. Now that I watch that chart again it looks more like a double top (Adam and Eve). A small double top but still enough to avoid being bullish. From the point and figure perspective it seemed that we were in a downtrend but we had a bottoming formation with higher lows and higher highs. I tried to catch a reversal but it seems that this trade will not be activated also. I am canceling it.
NZDUSD
Buy @0.75700
TP @0.76300
Stop @0.7500
After trade thoughts: I should avoid making trading decisions when I am tired. I should not be in a hurry when I trade. CONCENTRATE ON THE BUSINESS.
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USDNOK
This trade is entered with different criteria. The pair is in downtrend, the previous day ended with a bearish outside bar and the ADX(14) is rising. The rising ADX is the reason I choose this pair versus USDDKK. Freom the point and figure perspective we have a bearish chart with double bottom sell signal.
For some reason Metatrader became really stubborn and didn't leave me to enter a pending order where I wanted to. The price broke before my sell stop anyway and now is retracing so I entered a "Instant execution" order and now I am in.
Sell @5.54434
Stop @5.56210
TP @5.5 (if I am lucky enough to put that with that bad connection to the Alpari servers)
The USDNOK and the GBPCHF trades ended in disaster. They brought my account back to break even. In the case of the USDNOK trade I think I deserved the loss because I didn't trade as I had to. I didn't wait for the break but I chased the trade. In the case of GBPCHF I think I made the classic mistake of traffic vs space. I am a little disheartened from the trades so far. It seems that these two last weeks I can't find any decent trades to take. And even if I take any they end as losers. Maybe I have to reconsider somehow my strategy.
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4 March.
Today is Friday. I work during the day so I make trading decisions in the evening. The market is about to close in few hours and I don't want to leave pending positions all the weekend. So no trades today.
It seems that I had a pending order open after all in the CHFJPY which I totally forgot. I saw today that this order had been activated, had a profit and now is loosing. The pair is in a uptrend anyway so I am not closing it manually.
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