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Blz Trading
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Blz Trading

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Seattle
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: 6B
 
Posts: 225 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 135 given, 266 received

Blz Trading

So I've bounced around to many many different methods. Most of you know by now that as of late I have pulled virtually everything off my charts and I trade purely on price action and a little volume. I have thrown the 20 ema on my chart as well just as more of a reference point but I honestly don't know if it will remain.

Anyhow I had a trade this morning that I think is a great learning lesson. I know it was for me so I thought I'd post about it. I made 21 ticks but in my opinion I royally screwed the pooch on this one. Have a look.

UPDATE: As I finish this post 6B continued it's rip off that last fractal low and would've put my trade at +50 ticks which is what I like to pull out of a runner. At that time I could be real greedy and try for more or just take but long story short my error cost me about $180.

SECOND UPDATE: Good for another 10 ticks. Could be up 60.

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Last edited by Blz17; September 22nd, 2009 at 12:24 PM.
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  #2 (permalink)
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Favorite Futures: 6B
 
Posts: 225 since Jun 2009
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A Setup I'm Noticing

I'm going to try and be quite active in this thread not only because it's my journal but writing about my trades/setups will help me learn.

Attached is a pic of a setup I noticed on the 6B and honestly after reviewing some other instruments (CL, ES, EMD) I noticed this set up alot. I'm currently reading Al Brooks book and he refers to a Low2/High2 which is in essence the second new low on a pullback within a primary bear trend or the second new high on a pullback within a primary bull trend. I'm still learning Brooks stuff so don't hold me out as an expert but I think there are some good tidbits of knowledge in his book.

So, the attached picture shows the 6B making a lower high thus presenting the possibility of a primary bear trend. Within that pullback I would wait for a second lower low to be made and enter putting me in at 72-73ish. As of writing this it's already hit 20 ticks in the money so stop either at breakeven or take your loot and walk on. As I said I noticed this type of set up on multiple instruments. The other things I like about this particular setup is it's relatively low risk. You would use the prior fractal/swing high as your stop so this particular trade would have only had 14 ticks of risk max.

Oh and by the way I did not take this trade. As I said I'm still learning Brooks style so I'm not going to ignorantly throw my money in the market but I thought this was a great learning setup.

Blz

P.S. I'm still learning this method but from what I'm seeing I would only use this in (a) clearly defined moves and (b) on the move into the second swing. Don't chase the third/fourth/etc swing with something like this. I think your odds are far worse under those scenarios.

Good trading.

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  #3 (permalink)
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Whoops


I really need to be sure and recognize that the 6B is my bread and butter. I hit the afternoon and try applying some of my work to other instruments when the currency futures are moving slow and more often then not it doesn't go so well. Case in hand I tried a short on the EMD and it stopped me out rather quickly minus 11 ticks.

I haven't produced a chart yet but the basic premise is it formed a lower high and then within the pullback formed a Low2. However, the trend wasn't very smooth like earlier in the day plus I don't much experience with the EMD and don't quite have a grasp on how it moves.

Lesson learned.

Blz

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Last edited by Blz17; September 22nd, 2009 at 03:57 PM.
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  #4 (permalink)
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Nice posts so far Blz17, looking forward to more. Nothing is more rewarding to me than seeing journals posted in this forum - I think the journal is one of the major keys of success and benefits everyone profoundly.

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  #5 (permalink)
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A nice trade

Just closed out a 6B short and attached a chart. Played out perfectly. As of right now price is still waffling around that double bottom. I may reshort on the break but thus far I'm satisfied with the trade.

Probably time for sleep 12:40am in Seattle and I gotta wake up at 5.

Good trading and good night.

Blz

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  #6 (permalink)
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A Great Price Action Educational Trade

Attached is a chart of a 6B trade that I did not take even though I should have. Regardless it is a great educational trade. It demonstrates the importance of giving your trades a chance to run if that's what you're shooting for and also shows how you can get out of a trade if it does not appear to be working. You've got your initial bailout stop set the whole time and most commonly with these types of trades you will be able to close out the trade as demonstrated on the chart.

Hope it helps.

Blz

UPDATE: You can also maintain that newest fractal as your stop and watch for lower lows. Typically when it starts to get range bound I'll close the trade out and plan a new entrance on the top or bottom of the range but if I'm free riding the trade then I might let it go to see if it gets continuation. I added this to this post as the price has drifted back towards those lows for a possible break.

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  #7 (permalink)
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A missed opportunity

Since I have not been on this style of trading for very long I am still building confidence and this causes me to miss trades. Sadly I missed two trades today. One I probably would have gotten out even (I posted about it in my prior post) and the second one would have been good for 40 to 50 ticks. I kind of let the duldrums leading up to the fed release to put me in a permanent state of sitting on my hands when I really should've have been looking for nice setups once the news release dust settled.

Anyhow, check out the chart.

I also attached a picture describing how I approach my trades once it moves against me. I didn't create that picture. All credit for it goes to feb2865, fxachilles and all the other helpful people on the System II thread at forexfactory.

Blz

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  #8 (permalink)
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I hate sleeping!

Just woke up to find the 6B had the move that you dream of. I hate sleeping. I may have to literally start trading midnight or so to 8 am PST. Seems to be the best time for the 6's but I just keep putting off the inevitable.

Chart says it all.

Blz

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  #9 (permalink)
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Posts: 225 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 135 given, 266 received

How I Trade

I was reviewing my journal and realized I never really discussed how I trade. I've alluded to my style on other posts throughout the forum but never really hit the nail on the head. So, I figured I ought to post that info here. Not only to hopefully benefit others but also to reinforce my style in my own head.

First and foremost I learned this style from the System II thread over at forexfactory from feb2865, fxachilles and many others. I'm not plugging forexfactory or anyone else but I fully believe in giving credit where credit is due.

The basic premise of the strategy is to identify key reversal areas or 1-2-3 patterns. First on the 1-2-3 patterns I look for a 30 tick swing to indicate strength in the market (speaking in reference to the 6's specifically 6B/6E). Then I wait for a pullback and a breakout to new highs. Nothing truly tricky about it. I'm simply playing the second breakout off the first pullback within a trend. With this particular setup I am usually targeting 21 ticks of profit, perhaps a little more but I don't stretch it with the 1-2-3. My initial stop is always a couple ticks below that setup pullback but no more then 20 ticks. The key for me is my risk reward ratio must always be 1 to 1 or better. If there are successive pullbacks before my target is reached I simply use those to reset my stop loss thus decreasing my risk on the way but maintaining by my profit target.

My key reversal approach (or also bracketed breakout) looks for the market to pullback and establish a key point of reference, move off that point of reference then return and breakdown/breakout from that point. As with the 1-2-3 set up, I use the prior swing (or I'll frequently refer to them as fractals) point is my where my stop will be placed. With the key reversals I shoot for runners. I don't care if I get stopped out break even, minus a couple ticks or even let a 20 tick winner turn into a 3 tick winner. I want to hit winners of 50 ticks or more.

I've attached a pick that kind of depicts how I set up my trades. I've also attached a pic (it was also attached a few posts ago) that is of utmost importance. The second picture deals with how to manage a bad trade. If someone looks to trade with this style I suggest they print out that picture and eat it so that it will be permanently part of their inner workings.

I hope this is clear. It's a little tricky to explain how to trade the system exactly because it's really not a system. It requires some active subjective interpretation of price action. Anyhow, I'm more then happy to answer any questions.

Blz

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Blz Trading-fcr-entriesexits.jpg   Blz Trading-number-1-2.gif  
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A Big F- For the Day


Well I give myself a big F minus for the day. I really took what should've been a great day and turned it into a mess. All is not lost though. I learned a few things and made one good decision so here goes.

I attached a chart. The bottom line is I decided to sleep last night rather then trade the Euro session, bad decision. The Euro session was a dream drop off in the 6B. However, this morning had a great drop as well, I got 10 ticks out of it . Unfortunately I over analyzed a situation and thought that the cash equity open would bring wild volatility that could screw up my trade. Should've been in it for a solid 100 or so ticks. There was a second chance to get into this trade but I was in the bathroom .

I did do something right here. I walked away for a bit. I felt that having missed two great chances that I was prone to forcing a trade so I decided it was best to get away for a little while.

Once I returned my bad decisions continued. I got into a short that presented a huge risk exposure and I did not manage it well. I was but that's no excuse cause my stop shouldn't have even been there. It should have been much higher or I should not have been in the trade. At this point I wasn't quite done and was watching for another breakdown. I was also only looking for 20 ticks on any trades to restore some confidence, it was later in the day and because 6B was already down so much it seemed highly unlikely that anymore gigantic drops were in the cards. There was a nice breakdown, I was off getting a bagel.

At this point I was real gun shy and missed a couple good setups for 20 ticks.

Here's the good news. If I had played my trades the way I'm supposed to I would have made a killing today. Plus I could have easily pulled a chunk of ticks out of the market later in the day had I just remained confident and gone for it. To me this is good news cause it reminds me to stick to my plan and that results like today's can be avoided. Plus when its all said and done I lost $80 today, oh well. That's a cheap price to learn some important lessons.

It's time for a . I plan on trading Euro session tonight and am gonna bounce back hard.

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