Generally eating more vegetables and fruits are a good idea.
If you find it hard to remember to eat fresh vegetables then you can buy a vegetable juice like V8 - not as good as fresh but something.
The thread started as a request for others to share their visualizations. I had thought that perhaps 30 or 40 would post actual examples of:
visualizations they use
visualizations they have found on the net that they liked especially visualizations of …
Aug 25, 2017 : Please feel free to post your contributions
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Though I meant February 2 in yesterday's post I typed it so it will stand as an error.In any case I'm thinking there may be some surprises for the bulls tomorrow Feb 2- just a theory.We'll see. I will try to be unbiased tomorrow morning, as I should be every day.
I feel the action in the S&P500 perhaps has some warning of a sharp correction.
The lack of commentary on the big down plunge last Friday was interesting.
However, the market grinds higher and higher with a high of 1308.25 and a close of 1307.50 on the ES for Friday 4 Feb, 2011. I was hoping to do a weekend review -but it's past my bedtime.
My priorities are:
1. get more rest
2. work less hours and if I can find the time get in one walk each evening.
3. even less hours and start back at the gym.
Blessings and good health to you all - may the year of the Rabbit be good to you!
Tomorrow = Monday 7 Feb 2011 Est high 1309.75
est low 1300.
est range 9.75
(adj h/l by difference from close to open tomorrow am)
observations:
NR trendless day.
Nt prices unreliable - switch to Sierra
make sure you do a cntrl shift R until then
HL est 9pts - mechanical est 10pt actual rng=6.75
o/n+pre=5.50
make switch to alert for NR (narrow range days).
@if(aver .... < mech est by 3 then ......)
Dir +1 vs +1
MidChg +1 vs +1 (chg +7)
O=1326 L=1324.50 buying at O-1.5 looks good for Zim Ben.
NR=narrow range day
--------
High 1343.00
Low 1336.25
Open 1339.50
Close 1343.00
Percent 100% VWap 1339.75 Range 6.75 Vol 1,339,690
WMA7 1334.00 SAR 1315.25
Bol U 1345.00
Bol L 1324.50
EMA5 1334.50
observations:
NR trendless day
mech est of dir=-1, act dir=0 (+0.50)
mech est of mid chg=-1, mid chg=0 (-2.75)
dir30min = upto 1328 act=1328@9:01
Mode was close
Range est in pts:
mechanical est= 10
Rng est=9.00
LSS 6.75
Mode 6.75
Median 9.00
actual rng =5.75
-----------
High 1328.00
Low 1322.25
Open 1325.75
Close 1326.25
Percent 70% VWap 1325.25
Range 5.75 Vol 1,224,993
WMA7 1324.50 SAR 1301.00
Bol U 1330.00
Bol L 1317.00
EMA5 1323.50
--notes---------
dir=direction of the day, -1=dn,0=flat,+1up {flat= @abs(O-C) < 4.25pts}
mid chg=change in the midpt of the day from yest, -1=dn,0=flat,+1up {flat= @abs(O-C) < 4.25pts}
dir30min = this is a preopen visual estimate looking at the 30min chart and not including additional movement for stop-running.
Rng est= this is the actual high-low differenceI settled on before opening. underneath "rng est" this is the estimate that was closest that day, the mode average of all range est, then the median average of all range est.
"Why is the man who invests your money called a broker?"
--
"Why do doctors call what they do "practice"?
---
Local fire dept responding to a call that some geese were stuck frozen in lake, rushes to the scene, pushes out a boat and some ice-breaking tools and when they get to within 3 yards the geese fly off.
"So how did it go?" a coworker ask on their return to the station.
"Wild goose chase" was the reply.
----
I like you. You remind me of when I was young and stupid.
---
observations:
NR trendless day
mech est of dir=-1, act dir=0 (+2.75)
mech est of mid chg=1, act mid chg=1 (+6.50)
dir30min = upto 1332.75 act=1336@9:38
Range est in pts:
mechanical est= 9.25
Rng est=9.00
Mode 5.75
Median 9.63
Actual rng =8.50
-----------
High 1336.00
Low 1327.50
Open 1330.25
Close 1333.00
Percent 65% VWap 1332.75 Range 8.50 Vol 1,592,404
WMA7 1327.00 SAR 1305.00
Bol U 1334.25
Bol L 1319.00
EMA5 1326.75
--notes---------
the estimate of the range was +0.50 -pretty close
high was greater than the Bol U
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NR upslash day
mech est of dir=1, act dir=1 (+7.50)
mech est of mid chg=1, act mid chg=0 (+2.75)
dir30min = upto 1335 act=1340@14:26
Rng est=8.00
H/L est 11.00
Mode 8.50
Median 8.63
Actual rng =11.00
-----------
High 1340.00
Low 1329.00
Open 1330.25
Close 1337.75
Percent 80% VWap 1335.50 Range 11.00 Vol 1,447,862
WMA7 1333.00 SAR 1310.00
Bol U 1337.50
Bol L 1323.50
EMA5 1330.50
--notes---------
H/L estimate right on today- 11.0 vs 11.0!! good stuff!
(H/L is what I go with - in this case it was Est high =1340.25, estimated Low=1329.25 only +0.25 to the actuals!)
(Rng est = the mechanical estimate of the spreadsheet.)
FEa est was excellent as well. FEa est=1329@8:24 Actual = 1329@8:39
(FEa est = the estimated First End of the day. The sheet makes two estimates FEa and FEb for days when there is a double first end, that is both before 10am. SE, Second end, today was the HE high end. So actuals: FE=LE of L1329@8.29 and SE=HE H1340@14.26)
high again > Bol U +2.50
SAR increased +6.0 from yesterday and still way down at 1310 - way-to-go Zimbabwe BEN!
this whole market has an incredible feel of unreality and disconnect. How bankerBEN can keep printing and not see its just inflating an equity bubble - or perhaps he does and cares more for his bankerbuddies who knows...
NR trendless day
mech est of dir=1, act dir=0 (+3.50)
mech est of mid chg=1, act mid chg=1 (+5.25)
dir30min = up to 1340.00 act=1337@ 8:46 (est was wrong)
H/L est 1344.25 1333.75 10.50
Rng est=8.50
Weekly PP 7.25
Mode 11.00
Median 11.00
Actual rng =6.75
-----------
High 1343.00
Low 1336.25
Open 1339.50
Close 1343.00
Percent 100% VWap 1339.75 Range 6.75 Vol 1,339,690
WMA7 1334.00 SAR 1315.25
Bol U 1345.00
Bol L 1324.50
EMA5 1334.50
--notes---------
High est good, low not so much. +1.25 on the HE and -2.5 on LE
H/L rng=10.50 vs 6.75 -ouch! (once again the narrow on could have been a tip-off. Need to work on that switch.)
FEa so-so +2. FEa est=1339@8:20 Actual = 1337@8:46 (time for FEb was 8:52 so much closer to actual)
high today < Bol U -2.0 --- humm...
SAR increased +5.25 from yesterday to 1315.25
-----
Ok gang its a sunny Sunday and I'm wasting away at the keyboard -- time for a walk outside!
" 4. Only trade opportunities that offer at least a 3:1 profit zone to the first target."
" 5. Pre-plan and pre-set: Entry, Stop, Target/s."
"Here are the only two types of entries you will ever need. The First Pullback entry is the lower risk/higher reward entry though many people are not comfortable with it. "
I really wonder how many people bother to make sure that they know their RR ratio and wait for 3:1 - that is knowing their stops don't enter without the chart showing them a 3:1 for the target - very few I would imagine.
----------
Yesterday I got a hand chart set up for silver and was happy that the graph paper I had pasted to the printed one year chart just happened to work out for scaling of grid lines.
Today - the day after a holiday -is always a bit of a quandry as to what to do with yesterday's partial ES data. I slept in so no trading in any case. Markets are down - not much of a surprise after the action partial session yesterday.
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A second article seems to clarify Sams approach. He sells the first revisit to a resistance level (pivot level) provide the time spend there was brief. vv lows.
Swing Trading Strategies | Day Trades | FREE Stocks Picks - MrSwing.com
The first time price revisited that level [support] was the time to buy as the risk was low and the reward was high. Notice...the cluster of trading that is followed by a decline in price. When price comes back to that level for the first time ... it goes right through it without turning lower."
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more than 2 yrs ago when I started out on my quest I set some rules for myself:
- no TV
- no newspapers
- no drinking.
(quite a few more but not to bore you.)
Well working 14hrs+ a day on this project I don't have time to waste. By Friday I am exhausted.
This Friday I didn't get my end of day and end of week wrap-up done. I gave myself a little break on Sat evening and did some investment reading at the local coffee shop. Not sure why but I broke a rule and read the newspaper, which contained an article about a female CBS journalist on 11 Feb while covering the anti-government protest rally, being separated from her fellow reporters and beaten and repeatedly raped by group of Egyptians. Finally, 20 Egyptian women and the police finally ended her ordeal. The ugliness of a the "humans" involved really bothered me and I had a hard time getting the awful image out my mind and upset my sleep.
Then this morning I read in Barcharts, I read:
" increased geo-political concerns after Egypt granted Iran permission to send 2 warships through the Suez Canal, which raises the risk of an Iranian confrontation with Israel." (nice)
---------------------
I know some believe God is going to come down to earth and do some "cleansing".
If so, I sure wish he'd get a move on 'cus the scum is floating to the top.
--------------
Anywho, missed today mega day trading.
My own fault - I stayed up too late to get up on time and missed a 24.25pt day after a series of 6-7pt garbage.
The following user says Thank You to aquarian1 for this post:
WR checkdown day Rng=24.25
mech est of dir=-1, act dir=-1 (dif open to close -12.75)
mech est of mid chg=-1, act mid chg=-1 (-13.25)
dir30min = up to 1328 act=up from 1323.25@8:37 to1334.50@ 9:17 (est was correct)
H/L est 1335.25 1323.25 dif= 12.00
Rng est=12
Best Est of Rng:
Mech Pivot 27.00
Mode 12.00
Median 13.25
Actual rng =24.25
-----------
High 1334.50
Low 1310.25
Open 1326.75
Close 1314.00
Percent 15% VWap 1321.50 Range 24.25 Vol 2,589,250
WMA7 1325.50 SAR 1321.00
Bol U 1344.75
Bol L 1310.75
EMA5 1327.00
--notes---------
Got up late and so the estimates reported here are the mechanical and don't really mean
much. Important
I must make sure that on big down days like today I don't limit the profit.
On prior day Friday 18 Feb I mentioned"high today < Bol U -2.0 --- humm... "
Looks like it had meaning. From Friday's high to today low (1343 1310.25) = drop of 32.75pts.
RTH Sar =1321 +5.75 from Thursday.
Notice that Thurs 17 Feb's SAR was 1310 -very close to today's low.
(On the extend hrs graph SAR has flipped to the high side. WMA70= 1287)
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In the article I read it mentioned raped and then used the words sexually assaulted as the watered down PC terminology - I don't know what you think the repeated "sexual assault" was perhaps un-nice touching while she was being beaten? - The point is about how it upset my sleep - please argue your "facts' in another thread.
This is a trading journal.
I have rules for myself and when I broke a self-discipline rule - not reading newspapers - I paid the price.
For myself there is a reason for the rules and I am showing how other areas of your life connect to trading. Your emotions, your state of mind, your physical health, your rest, your nutrition, etc.
In one video on keeping the art of keeping an effective journal, the author includes "have a fight with the wife?", "spill your coffee on your lap?" put in in your journal - both little and big things can have an impact on your trading and if your don't enter them in your journal - you won't see the patterns.
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The evening before after I complete my wrap-up number entry and calculations, I have a rough estimate for the next day.
In this example, 1319.25 is the estimated high (met at 23:47)
The on high was 1320.50 so the heat on this trade was only 1.25.
The estimated low is 1302.25. This target was met at 11:09 am.
My rules do not force me to exit at the target and if the price action dictates then I can continue to hold.
In the morning I get up at 5:30 (3:30am PT) and start working about 6:30 gathering the numbers from the o/n session updating hand charts and spreadsheet, ect. I try to have the new estimates finalized before opening, 8:30CT, though it is a scramble.
Today I settled on
H/L est 1319.50 1301.00 difference 18.50
I must sell above the SA level of 1314.25 (see light blue dotted line).
The open was 1311.75
I had a
"Sell at/near open"
signal showing this morning. This means that I could sell soon after opening for a 5 pt trade. (I don't take these signals at this time - though they are there for when my account is stronger.)
I am really only looking for one trade, e.g. Sell the high and close at the low.
The chart shows the price action after open.
The open was 1311.75.
Price rose to H1316.50 @ 8:46
It is above the SA line, 1314.25
Today I had various signals:
"Sell at/near open" - this meets that signal,
"FE=HE" - this meets that signal,
"down to 1130" - this is also in line.
The Dir30 is my estimate of the main move's direction after opening zig-zagging. They often move it around and then decide on a direction and go with it. This move (+4.75) is still in keeping with downwards to 1130 and below. (dir30 does not include stop running so it can be taken much lower. dir30 is the initial resistance the minimum level it should (in this example) fall to.
This is journal is for me to clarify my thoughts and perhaps be of service to someone else.
I'm not looking for feedback or suggestions. Please don't post in this journal other than a question of clarification of terms I use -that I haven't already clearly described. I'll try to give them as I go along and as time permits give examples. (I guess those would be best in a sticky - but I don't know if I can do that ?).
If you are one of the few souls who is also interested estimation trading, please feel free to contact me via email or PM.
I'm going to try and keep my visits here brief.
Many thanks and best of luck in achieving your goals and dreams!
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mech est of dir=-1, act dir=1
dif open to close (today)= -8.00
mech est of mid chg=-1, act mid chg=-1
chg in midpt -15.50
dir30min = dn to 1310 act= up to 1316.50@8:44 then dn to 1297.50
(est was incorrect)
Rng est=19.75, Act= 19.00
Best Est of Rng: Aver = 19.25
Mode = 24.25
Median = 21.63
--------
23-Feb
High 1316.50
Low 1297.50
Open 1313.25
Close 1305.25
Percent 41% VWap 1307.50 Range 19.00 Vol 2,730,975
WMA7 1329.50 SAR 1343.00
Bol U 1346.00
Bol L 1294.75
EMA5 1320.25
-----------
High Est 1319.50
Actual High 1316.50
Dif= 3.00
Low Est 1301.00
Actual Low 1297.50
Dif= 3.50
I have been too low in my estimates.
My estimates may be influenced by the Benanke bubble and waiting for the bull pushes.
Thursday close should be important.
--notes---------
FE did not rise into HZ but did rise above SA level
Est FEa= 1314.25 08:39
Actual FEa =1316.50 08:44
Signals:
SELL near open
FE=HE
1318.00 09:05
Fork est:FE=?
This morning from Briefing.com (edited)
"9:05amMeanwhile, Germany's DAX is currently down 1.0% so that it is pace for its fourth straight loss. German bourse is trading below its 50-day moving average for the first time in more than a month. Slide has been led by RWE AG and Allianz (AZ), which reported a gain in fourth quarter profit and announced to raise its dividend. Siemens (SI) has provided some broad market support, as has BASF, which reported a sharp rise in fourth quarter income. Higher oil prices have also helped BP Plc (BP), which has joined fellow natural resource plays BG Group, BHP Billiton (BHP), and Anglo American to provide support to Britain's FTSE. FTSE is down 0.2% with weakness in HSBC (HBC), British American Tobacco, Vodafone (VOD), and Rio Tinto (RIO)."
After my morning rush of data collection etc, I had my orders in and my alert set. The first key time was about 8:39 and though they moved it up it did not have the usually spikey look of a first end. I think I had in my mind it would be an upslash day or perhaps checkdown. In any case the lower edge of the HZ was 1310.25 and est high at 1311.75. (i'm not quite sure how I ended up this this as a quick hand estimate had the high at1308). It got above the SA line of 1305.75 and made a high at 1310@9:21.
Well 1310 is one tick below my alarm setting of 1310.25 and the alarm did go off. Also they only ran the TICK to +800 area. At this point I wrote:
"Don't be in a rush. They could bounce it around all day. No need for them to do anything. Low stops taken out in o/n session and high stops at 1308 just done. TICK has been to +800 - might not be a spikey top just a slow roll-over.'
Well the day was quite unusual. Very zig-zaggy action. Low at 1292.50 @ 12:57 and then up to 1308.50 at 14:33.
nearly closing time ... back to work
General comments:
This was an unusual day. We had a gap up of +5 and then a narrow range of 9.75.
Also we had a double top at exactly 1329. What makes this interesting is that usually if they are making a double top the second top will be a bit higher than the first to take out the stops above the 1329 of 9:31am.
This is like money in the bank to them. If they don't take them out in the o/n session and if the open is reasonably strong (say greater than 1328.50) then we would expect them to run them tomorrow. Preliminary estimates of tomorrow high reflect this.
Signals:
FE= FE=? --- this means the spreadsheet didn't know
SELL/B @ 09:13 -- 9:23 was the actual time
Times:
510 Rule= 9:11
PT Rule= 08:54
FEa= 08:33 --- This was fine correct time was 8:31
FEb= 09:13 RTH low 13:42 --- New formula today actual was 13:04 (I'll leave it for a few days before modifying)
Switches:
Dir30= up to 1327.00 ----was fine but i got up late and so this may not be valid
Dir = +1. today the dif open to close (today) was 2.75--if it is <4.25 then that =0 -- so Dir = +1 is wrong
Mid chg= 1 9.25 =change in midpts yest to today --if it is <4.25=0 -- correct as +9.25 > 4.25 =>correct.
Estimate Levels:
FEa= 1323.25 --- FEa was 1322.75
FEb= 1328.50 --- FEb was 1329
(Explanation: on some days, as today, there is a double first end.
The first end is defined as the high or the low of the day happening between 8:30 and 10:30am CT. Today we had a double first end. I have this notation because buying at 1322.75 @8:31 and selling at 1329 @ 9;23 =+6.75 ( which is >5 points the minimum points profit potential, I will take on a trade) and allows more room for error on the buystop.
The buystop is maximum 5pts. Today it was at 1331.25 and the lowest I would have sold is the bottom of the High zone ie 1326.75 = 4.5pts potential loss to buystop. If I had some of the +6.75 potential of FEa to FEb and if my estimate of the high was wrong and I get stopped out then that offsets the loss. Hence the reason for the FEa and FEb.)
Actual Levels:
FEa= 1322.75
FE= 1329.00 @ 09:23
Estimated Rng: Mech= 15.75, H-L= 15.00
Actual Rng = 9.75
So in this case the est of the range is was way off. This sometimes happens on a gap up days like today. The difference of yest close to today's open was +5.00.
I need to improve my mechanical estimation of the range (above 15.75). Currently, it is influenced by the 3day ATR and the 3d ma of the range (which were 18.0 and 15.50 respectively). I need to make some adjustments so that if other indications are for a range contraction or expansion I leave these out of the mechanical estimate calculation. Today a range estimate called "yest/avg 5d" was 10.75 - not 9.75 but closer.
Trades: none - got up late today. and when there is a cabbage signal and the est range is not WR then no trading is indicated.
Bottom Line - If I had of traded today the high zone was great (see graph) the trick would have been to close out at the low of 1319.25 with my range estimate so far off. It is very unlikely I would have reversed and gone long.
On Tuesday, 1 March, instead of rushing into my morning data collection to be ready by open,
I just sat with my morning coffee, the computer still off and did some reflective thinking.
The results while not earth-shattering were important.
With 14hr workdays I felt I barely had enough time to breathe.
I know that, for me, my body needs a solid 8:30 hours sleep and works better with more.
I wasn't getting my sleep and by Friday I was exhausted.
Saturday and Sunday instead of rest were work catch-up.
Yesterday, after work, I went to the health food store to buy a couple of things.
The young lady serving me, added a complimentary copy of the Alive magazine to my carrywith grocery bag. She pointed at the cover and said:
"See.. Men's Health", emphasizing the word "men's".
My neighour, Jim had had some problems with dry scalp and I had urged him to get a filter for the shower that takes out the chlorine (and lead) from the water. This had me digging out health books for him, which in turn got me thinking about health and how I had neglected mine.
As men, (not retired old fuddy-duddies, but those still with the bit between our teeth) we tend to work ourselves too hard. Society's pressure to earn money and achieve driving us relentlessly.
Yet we know in our heart of hearts, health is number one.
Money and success are of no value without our health.
I have resolved to work less hours, get more sleep and restart my exercise program.
If I don't get all my work done - then I don't get it done.
I found out that all/most(?) of the vitamins and supplements I had been taking over the years contain magnesium stearate "(lubricant)".Note: magnesium stearate is also called stearic acid!
Turns out this is a toxic oil they had to supplement formula to allow them to run the machines faster. Sometimes listed and sometimes not.
This information was very depressing to me. I already spend far more than most people on these items than most people and now instead of buying them at the drugstore I would have to go to the health food store and pay even more for them!
I'm not what I'm going to do. I guess I must:
find ways to make my work hours more productive,
reduce and simplify my work and data collection,
and perhaps schedule only trading 4 or 3 days a week instead of 5.
I know I must make changes.
Today I was tired when the alarm went off (in bed too late and not a good sleep),
so I just turned it off, rolled-over, and went back to sleep.
If some of this resonates with you I hope it encourages you to make the changes you need in your life and restore health and fitness to the number one spot in your life priorities.
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I'm glad that you have come to this realization. Money and success are nothing without health. I wish my husband would realize that too
I'm pretty sure I know the health food store you went into and they are very good there. I know it costs a little more for what you need but the advice is invaluable.
Seeing as you like to do reasearch (or so it seems to me) perhaps look into a vegan diet. I started eating about 90% vegan 2 months ago (not for health reasons but, I won't get into that here.... lol) and since then I have read so many wonderful things about what it can do for your body. Actually reversing alot of ailments and perhaps reducing the amount of supplements you need. And it's alot cheaper to eat this way too.
Anyways, take care, and thanks for keeping up your journal with so many other things on your plate.
~T
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Mr. Harmon:
"We have resolved to do what all good Britishers do in a time of crisis."
Mr. Lucas:
"What's that? Take decisive action?"
Mr. Harmon:
"Put the kettle on."
The following 2 users say Thank You to aquarian1 for this post:
Well in the time it took to post the last message it has been to 1324.75 > 1324.25 the buystop.
So my rule about don't take it if it is after 10am and you missed the FE was a good one.
If I had the FE L=1306.25, so say long at 1308 then I am only looking to close a long position.
That means I can just keep watching and waiting and the more they play it up the better, so
"they could be at this all day" means this can be a "long T-top" day
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There was a point about trading psychology in my post about "put the kettle on".
When you are involved watching the screen and trying to decide if you should enter the trade,
you sometimes realize
"I'm too tense" or
"Something doesn't feel right" or
"I think I am forgetting something."
In these points of mental "crisis" it is sometimes best to "put the kettle on".
That is, get up walk away from the computer and go an make a cup of tea (herbal tea but same idea)- relax and chill.
That is what I did this morning.
As I was standing waiting for the water to boil, my thoughts cleared and I realized:
"what am I doing? It's already moved 19pts and you now are going to trade?
what are you thinking? the trade was at 8:47 (CT) not now - you've missed it and you are breaking your trading rules if you take a trade."
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I make a preliminary estimate in the evening using the close as a proxy of the opening price.
During the o/n session the range of the overnight trading and the overnight high and low can influence the estimates (if the o/n high or low is outside of the RTH range of yesterday).
Last night it was within the bounds of yesterdays range
Also the difference from close to open can influence estimates such as in a gap of of 5pts or more.
Blue box is a trade with the evening estimates. Notice that the evening estimates caught the first low but not the second low. The morning estimates caught the second low - see LZ marked with red.
..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
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In keeping with my health resolutions, I was very tired today, and so I slept in. I did not have the computer on until after close.
I recently posted about how the overnight trading can effect my estimates (in brief is the o/n session is an inside bar then it does not have the impact on the estimates as would a session that runs yest H or L.)
last night's o/n session (I run it to 7:30 not 8:30CT) low ran yest lows (1303.75< 1311).
I did not update my LZ HZ lines from yesterday and on this graph you can see that yest LZ became today's HZ.
This is not as surprising as you might at first think. As the HZ, LZ are designed to catch turning points in the price, (The RHT H & L), then these at as resistance and support if they are breached in the overnight session - so yesterday's estimated support - the LZ was today's resistance - the HZ.
I had a question about day types and hope to be able to post a reply over the weekend.
e.g What is a "nessie" day, long T-top ect.
In brief, they have no impact on the basic idea "sell the high buy the low idea" and are only descriptive terms of the shape of the day, that I hope later to be able to predict. Currently I assign these names at the end of the day. They are not range related, though as you know I don't trade NR days.
(A"cabbage" day is a non-shape ie trendless day that is also NR).
---------------
I had an o/n sell of the HZ which was not filled. I did not enter a LZ buy as I felt the wedge that was forming might break to the downside. (Buying the LZ is a counter trend trade and therefore you only do this IF THE PRICE STOPS FALLING IN THE LZ).
Enter the target buy to close the trade at 1292.50
Feeling tired.
I'll set an alert for 1293 and see if indicators can squeeze more out of this.
o/n low ran low stops so there is no need for the crooks to move it lower.
little interest on bears to sell - and little enthusiam on bull to buy.
probably cabbage for first while at least .
estimated high shows a run up at some point (perhaps near the close?)
The BB and SA levels are only to help catch the FE if the FE is not as low as the LZ or as high as the HZ.
Today was an example (numbers still for March contract til Monday)
Opened at 1291.25
up to 1298@ 8:47 (FEa)
dn to 1291.75 at 9:15 (FEb) (this was the FE=LE)
---today there was a double FE, FEa and FEb that is they are 6pts apart and FEa > SA and FEb < BB and before 10am.--- a bit confusing I know but that's life!
So FEb turns out to be the "real' FE. How do we know this? At the time we don't unless we look to a longer time frame chart or indicators or some other measure. However, We can Sell FEa and Buy FEb (close and reverse so now we are long. ) if the trend lines support this.
This is why the spreadsheet also has FEa and FEb estimates (at this time these aren't reliable on their own but in todays case they provide support to determining what was happening) From spreadsheet
FEa= 1290.50 08:41
FEb= 1296.50 09:26
--- look at the times 8:41 vs 8:47 actual and 9:26 versus 9:15, then switch the values (easy for me with my mild dyslexia) 1296.50 vs 1298 and 1290.50 vs 1291.75. Add in the "sell near open" signal and you can see we are selling at about 8:41 - turns out its 8:47 and as 1290.50 obviously isn't the value to watch 1296.50 is a guideline. However, I fine-tune the entry of a trade with indicators so that price levels and times that I estimate are only to "get me on the green". Then its pick up the putter (the indicators) to get it in the hole.
So once we get to 8:41 we are looking for a top somewhere in the 1296.50 area, we are 'on the green' and now its up to us to sink the putt.
Then we are long for the SE which is the HE and can sell the HE (close and reverse) if we feel there is 6 pts profit potential downward.
I have done my end-of-the-day wrap-up and now have a different value for the opening price than I had right after opening (I take the end of the day numbers from my IB regular trading hour chart which somehow has a different opening price at the end of the day vs 8:35).
In any case, the "Sell at/near open" signal is no longer showing on my spreadsheet with the revised opening number.
I hope this did not cause confusion to any readers.
Perhaps those who said well you could have "bought at open for 5pts+"
Caesar:
Who is it in the press that calls on me?
I hear a tongue shriller than all the music
Cry "Caesar!" Speak, Caesar is turn'd to hear.
Soothsayer:
Beware the ides of March.
Caesar:
What man is that?
Brutus:
A soothsayer bids you beware the ides of March.
Julius Caesar Act 1, scene 2, 15–19 Beware the ides of March - Shakespeare Quotes
----------- Looking like a fall. 1220 is the first target. On 19 Jan we had that a break of 1271 put uptrend in danger of being broken. Having been to 1343 on 18 Feb (1344 on SPX) we have now fallen below 1271. Monday 14 March the June contract shows a close ....
My neighbor on the other side of my paper-thin apt walls has decided that he needs an extra bass woofer to get the full experience of his rented movies on his home entertainment system. Net result - up til 11pm and a terrible sleep last night -( awful dreams). I didn't finally get up until after the market had closed.
Took a walk - real exception for me and since then I've been working on the daily wrap-up which has taken forever.
My estimates where not close today. I do my roll-over on the weekend after the second Thurs, as my numbers are chain-linked and I'm hoping the -4.75 won't be as bad over the weekend.
It 9:42pm PST and I'm already 2 hours behind bedtime and still some more work to do before then.
Que cera.
I put in an overnight sell at 1275.25 but the high was only 1271.25 at 3:29 so no fill.
I have not done the morning adjustment to my estimates so those shown on the charts are from last night.
(The estimate labeled me is just something I do for fun by looking at the graph - that estimate, 1271 would have been perfect! but its a bit of a cheat as I was very late doing my wrap up and the fall (first part) had happened.
Well with WOOFER DAN who has left his wife and kids of 17yrs to drink and smoke all day and shack up with his "girlfriend" playing movies both Sat and SUn nights - my sleeping schedule is off and from past experience it will take all week to get back to getting up at 3:30am (PST) to be ready by opening.
I'm a night owl by disposition and getting up at 3:30am isn't easy. As I need 8.5 hrs that is 7:00PM bedtime with all work done and hand charts made up and supper eaten by 6:00PM.
I also need my exercise and fresh air to feel good and my health effects my moods - it's hard to think straight or be positive when I'm tired and depressed from lack of exercise.
Last night, WOOFER DAN started up his movies. Luckily, it was just a sound test, well 2 sounds tests, before movies. But that and not having my wrap-up done on time or enough time to even go outside for fresh air .... well not good.
Today I had to sleep in. Not up til 7:00am and ready til 8am = 10amCT.
G-- I HOPE HE MOVES!! Mega drop day and I've missed it and I am depressed. Oh, yes Happy St Paddy's Day.
In any case, within each adversity is wrapped an equal or greater opportunity and I think the Universe is pushing me to change. Simplify and reduce my work hours and get back into some healthy balance.
Last night I posted a trade for o/n session I attach them to an alert because IB erases them if I don't. So attach to a price alert the Sell at 1279.25 the stop at +5 (=1302.25) and the OAC profit limit order, 1253.50. Well IB doesn't like me attaching the OAC profit limit order to the alert and give me a #6405 error - whatever that is and erases it.
So my profit taker of 1253.50 OAC the SELL Stop was gone and I put in a trail 3 and go taken out well, well before the bottom.
..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
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Tired and 7:16pst - past bedtime a quick snack and hopefully a sound sleep. Lots more action tomorrow no doubt.
I track the swings of 6pts or more. Usually there are 3 or 4 swing points and if all are caught about 20pts. A big day is about 40 possible pts. Last Wed was 41 pts (this can happen on Wednesday's because of its up and down nature). Today was a staggering 134 possible points with 11 pts (!) in RTH. Wow!
My key goal is to achieve more balance in my life and therefore I will be focused as much on my resolutions for change in rest, exercise health as the trading mechanics. The key focus is to relax about "getting all the work done", go for walks, get my sleep, etc. As my time is so limited and will become more so with this shift in priorities, I will look for ways to automate the most time consuming functions.
Trades
Sld 2 1264.50 @ 2:04
Sld 2 1266.00 @ 13:37
Bot 4 1271.50 214:46 (closed out on stop-loss)
Result
-$1,266
Conditions
Slept 9:48pm to 9:38am PST. (woke up for 1 hr) =11 hours sleep.
Feeling ok but way behind in my work and trying to stay chill about it.
Hand charts not done and morning numbers not done.
Setup = "High end evening estimate"
Conditions
1. Wide variance in estimates and low confidence in resulting best guess estimate.
2. 1264 est high 1239 est low.
3. market is now closed.
4. Stop order morphed into another sell making me short 2 at open and no stop loss order in place. Sold 2 more with order error.
Trade
I was not online at the time of the trade. With order entry errors I ended up short 4 so I used the opportunity to try the scale order feature.
Price target 1239
Stop 1269 (+5)
P:L 30pts to 5pts = 6:1 (acceptable?=Y)
Post Op
The estimate was not very close but I'm ok with that as I didn't get the usual preopen adjustment made and the estimates are built for RTH not o/n. The evening est adj by close to open (+15.25) was 1279.25. (up from 1264.00). Morning estimate (with default "auto R,L&P") would have been 127x Actual high RTH was 1274.50. Actual range was 13.0 down from 33.0 on Wednesday.
Resolutions for Change
1. Yesterday, I decided that I needed to relax, work less hours and get more exercise and fresh air.
2. Track cumulative trades in journal starting on Friday 18 March, 2011
Things I did well
1. Wed= went for walk and thought about balance required. Ideas that came to me were to only trade 3 days a week. Look to automate hand charts. Be more relaxed and know that all is unfolding as it should. The changes I am making are for more balance in my life.
2. Wed= Went to bed even though hand charts were not made up.
Things to improve
1. Reduce all non-core activities - spend less time online.
2. Look to automate what you can.
3. Have water measured out the night before, drink first quart by end of morning coffee.
Accomplishments
1. Improved Dir switch calculation.
2. Gave out bits of green ribbon to help others be "Irish at heart for the day".
3. Picked up broken glass from park where people walk their dogs.
4. Thus= Went for a walk. (Score: 3 of 5 days this week.)
5. Got more than 9hrs sleep
6. Bought carrots.
7. Added saw palmetto berry to my daily herbal tea.
8. Learned how to use the scale feature.
9. Establish headings for journal.
10. Estimate of best exit was good.
Learning
The selection of the stop must be more careful. As I was so behind schedule this was just a plus 5 pts and as it turned out plus 6 was the high and plus 7 would have been better for the stop.
Woke up at 2:09 after only getting to bed at 11:22pmPST.
Lay there for a while and couldn't get back to sleep finally getting up at 3:09.
In the shower I decided that I must be more frugal with my time.
Today I'm using the 25 - 5 system.
You set a timer for 25minutes and when it goes off - you stop working and take a 5 min break. (only 5).
So I am exercising for the 5 min breaks. I have some gym equipment - bench/chair for shoulder presses and curls, some dumbells, and plates and other equipment - bullworker etc.
Walk score: 2 for 3 so far.
Up on time both yesterday and today (great! last week was a great trading week - totally missed with WOOFER DAN and this week is sludge. -argh! Move Dan! Move!)
Passing on this trade - as it could be a lazy L day.
This trade was with the levels set the evening before.
I am working with a trail of 1.50 attached to an alert.
The evening of Wednesday the 23rd I had an estimated high of 1301.50 and attached a trail sell of 1.50 to that with a Sell stop of 1307.50.
So what should have happened was the price was to rise to 1301.50 or greater (check),
the alert gets triggered (check) a trail sell is activated (check) and I am short 1 contract at 1301.25 - i.e. on the way down the hill. My evening estimate of the low was 1289.50 so that would have been the target or 11.75 pts.
Then I get up the next day and close out the short trade (no check - I slept in and didn't have the computer on til almost close and didn't look at this trade). So if I was was up then I would have made a morning estimate of the low (it was 1292.50 versus the evening estimate of 1289.50). So this means I would be looking to close the trade at 1292.50 or 8.75 pts instead of the earlier target of 11.75.
This morning I open the sim account and found the results below. Somehow IB has me buying 2 at 1302.75! - where I am selling! Oh well. (IB results on the graph = +1.625 pts.)
This week:
Monday -no trades
Tuesday - no trades
Wednesday - no trades
Thursday - +1.625
Trading wise is was a fizz.
Thurs 1.625
Fri +.50
Total=2.125
Walkscore 5 of 7 days
Friday evening Woofer Dan started up again. I was on schedule back home from doing some investment reading at the local coffee shop -( I go big: one mars bar $0.95 and my coffee $1.90 - two apples I bring from home and a quart of water. - let the good times roll!!) I had my bed made and teeth brush and ready to get back on sleeping schedule.
Just as I lay down the bass started up, so I got up put on my clothes - laid on my own booming bass tape (the speakers are on egg cartons to minimize the collateral damage to the neighbors below) and went out the door for a walk. One i got back he had given up and gone to party at his friends. (You would think he was 18 instead of 48 - really didn't booming bass go out of style in the 70's?)
Getting home it still took me a while "cool down" and to get to sleep. Slept from 11 to 1 pm the next day. I have realized how much my illness took out of me - I just don't have the reserves I used to. This week no hand chart done - except for one pitiful flat narrow-range trendless day (which I call cabbage days).
Off for a Sunday evening walk (time 7:31pm PST).
Feeling in my bones that the ES is going to roll-over here 1314.75 area on Friday - lets see what Monday brings!
May all of you have a successful trading week coming up!
I had trouble getting to sleep last night. I got to sleep - finally around 12PM PST and up at 5:30am PST so 5.5 hrs sleep.
So I pushed myself to get up, raced through the shower etc and tried to have my numbers done as soon as I could. Preliminary guess was a high around 9:20 or so and about 1315.75 (that is FE=HE). Then as I worked through updating the numbers the cabbage indicator came on. The cabbage was confirmed and we have drifted aimless through the 10am CT cutoff for the FE.
The estimated range fell during the o/n action to 10.50 from 17.50 so no trading with the system is allowed. (NR day).
So today we had a cabbage indicator and then at day's end it fell off. I didn't sell the FE=HE or 1315.25 @ 9:46. Though many reasons come to mind, I think that I am so discouraged missing that great week of huge trading day ranges (the week before last) that when I see the range drop off and the cabbage light come on I mentally go - "oh no I dragged myself out of bed with a 1/2 night's sleep for this?"
In any case, the estimates of the HZ and LZ were good with errors of only -1.25 and -1.75. This is fine as my error of estimate is 1.5. Also, the error is smaller at the FE which is the key end. Another accomplishment is that last night view that the high was in (1315 double top of Thursday and Friday) held. With the 1315.25 of today that makes a triple top so if you see it challenge that area tomorrow selling against it would be a bad idea and it would likely breakthrough.
We'll see what happens overnight but I am leaning towards a new downleg forming.
Certainly I don't feel good about not selling 1315 but then I was too tired to trade and it was a long time before prices broke.
(Today I installed Sierra charts and got a chart made. - small steps)
Conditions:
Woke up late at 5:27PST - very tired and a big effort to get up.
Gathered O/n data and saw that expected range had contracted from 16.50 to 12.50 -discouraging.
Saw that there would be no news other than consumer confidence - 9am CT
est:
Dir=-1
mid chg=-1
rng=12.50
30min dir,chg down to 1302
(this was correct actual L1300.25@8:46
I wrote that adding the 2.50 drop from 1308 to 1305.50 to 1308 could take us to 1310.50. We have been to 1311.
25 @12:04 - so this higher target could have been achieved.
This morning (Tuesday) I was very tired and got up late. I've been for a walk and reviewed my notebook.
The "Est Mid , Est Rng" estimate made on Monday night was 1315.50-1299.50. (I used Monday's close as an setimate of Tuesday's opening price until 8:30am CT.)
The close Monday to open this morning was +2.0. Adding this to "Est Mid , Est Rng" is the adj "Est Mid , Est Rng"
= 1317.50 vs actual high of 1317.25
and
=1301.50 vs actual low of 1300.25.
I woke up at 1am worrying. It started worrying about my sister in Montreal who has schizophrenia and toxioplasma gondii.and what will happen to her when my mom dies. Then it continued on about my brother who is dying from alcoholism and despair, and the circle widened and widened to friends with problems and then to the world.
At two I put on a tape to try to quiet my mind and get to sleep. At three, the tape ended, and I gave up trying to sleep and got up. I've had my shower, and my first coffee and listening to my tape "Don't worry, about a thing - because every little thing is going to be allright."
" Stocks Hold Steady to Solid Gains 03/29/2011 4:30 PM
[BRIEFING.COM] In contrast to the prior session, the stock market put together an impressive gain and held it into the close. The action in recent sessions is making for a strong finish to the first quarter. Stocks are currently up almost 5% year to date. That puts the S&P 500 on track to tie last year's first quarter performance, which was actually the best first quarter that stocks had recorded since 1998. Buying interest in recent weeks hasn't come as a result of any particular catalyst or economic development, rather a fear among participants of missing out on further gains. Buyers showed their willingness to step in with a bid once it was apparent that an early slip wasn't hit with any kind of follow through selling interest. Participants pretty much shrugged off news that analysts at Standard & Poor's trimmed Portugal's debt rating another notch lower to BBB-, which is barely above junk status. They also cut Greece's rating two notches to BB-. Participants were also dismissive of the March Consumer Confidence Index, which came in at 63.4 when the consensus among economists was for a reading of 65.0 following the upwardly revised reading of 72.0 for the prior month."
---
buying on a fear of missing gains - ok this is solid !
Please Bennie print some more money - I'm in fear of missing out on gains!
..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
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I've seen your face here before.
You think you've got it all
but there is so much more.
You hit the wall, you fall,
and then you learn to crawl again.
There's a world to explore.
Because there's no danger,
do I look like a stranger?
Just look left, look right, everybody's doing it.
One of the 2 hand charts I draw. This one - which I haven't done for 2 weeks, needs yesterday's H&L (and times), the overnight session- 15;15 to 7:30 not 8:30- H&L (and times) and the preopen data.
When I do get up with the alarm 3:30pst and I am more or less ready by open then we get a narrow range day.
{This is why I am so pissed that woofer dan stole the best trading week (the one two weeks ago with great wide ranging days) for his drinking partying binge. It not only his life he is pissing down the drain.}
Oh well, onwards and upwards.
This morning I was up at 3:40am - a big accomplishment. I'm very tired. Then I entered the overnight data and saw it was going to be a dismal choppy little inside day -argh!!
The overnight range was a pathetic -4.00 pts and the pre-open range -2.00!
(Normal would be twice that as a minimum , i.e. 8 pts and 4pts - these are separate ranges an can be overlapping.)
----------
no fills on o/n orders, surprise surprise.
I've cancelled them.
Maybe I'll put in a little trade in the "chop/slop" and then snooze.
..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
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