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  #971 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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THE FACTS OF THE REPO CRISIS, SUMMARIZED:
1) The repo crisis was the result of a liquidity shortfall at the "Top 4" banks, precipitated by JPMorgan's drain of over $100BN in repo market liquidity (a wise move, which eventually forced the Fed to launch QE4, and helped JPM report its most profitable year on record)
2) The Fed addressed the "supply side" of the Sept repo crisis by injecting over $400BN in liquidity to replenish bank reserve levels, first via repo and then via T-Bill POMO, i.e., QE4.
3) The Fed has yet to address the "demand side" of the Sept repo crisis, namely the market transmission mechanism which is intermediated by hedge funds. And it is here that, as the WSJ reported, the Fed is currently contemplating providing liquidity directly to hedge funds to prevent a systemic collapse during the next repo crisis, whenever it may strike.

"Fed officials are considering a new tool to ease repo market stress: namely bypassing the existing system entirely, and lending cash directly to smaller banks, securities dealers and hedge funds through the repo marketís clearinghouse, the Fixed Income Clearing Corp., or FICC."

"And so we once again get to the real issue at hand, namely the bailout of those hedge funds which even the BIS said were on the verge of failure had the repo market not been unfrozen - and which the Fed was all too aware of - and had the massive leverage that some hedge funds operate under collapsed, forcing an unprecedented liquidation cascade."


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/944-trillion-reasons-why-fed-quietly-bailing-out-hedge-funds

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  #972 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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Recession - Collapse

Japanese Regional Banks


China currency devaluation


Corporate Bonds


China currency crisis


Italian Banks

US corporate Debt

Pension Funds low return and funding shortfall


comng Global recession



[yt]https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBH5VZE_Y4F3CMcPIzPEB5A/playlists[/yt]

[yt]https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL2-78gs9nRfM-L5sdsAfD7O7iGr6-xNSt[/yt]

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  #973 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures followed Asian and European markets lower on Tuesday as worries about the fallout from a deadly virus outbreak in China and a gloomy growth outlook from the IMF looked set to stall a record rally on Wall Street.

Officials confirmed the new coronavirus outbreak took six lives and that it could spread between humans, stoking fears of a global pandemic and reviving memories of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) - another coronavirus that killed nearly 800 people in 2002-03.

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  #974 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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"The blue line in the chart below shows the actual number of reported coronavirus cases stands at 4,515 as of January 27.

The orange line is a simple progression that assumes a 53% increase in the cases every day. Or, one person infects 2 to 2.5 people.

As the orange line shows, this type of growth rate would suggest 80,000+ infections next Monday and 138 million by February 20.

If this track is not altered, the number of reported cases will top 16,000 by Friday."
cliippins from:
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/coronavirus-geometric-progression-suggests-100000-infections-week

--------
as this is Wednesday simple to track = let's check against progression -let's check on Friday if 16,000 or so....


The ES closed the gap on Tuesday RTH and onw Wed (today) o.n pushed above that to take out stops.
FOMC is upcoming..

Perhaps "pop and drop?"
PH signal dnies this and gives ...
"up, p and away,
"in my beautiful,
my beautiful,
baloooon."

(some song lyrics ;-)

Regardless, today's HOD is IT!!
Down we go....

11:03 AM 1/29/2020

GLTA :-)

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  #975 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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Stealth aspect is key
11:15 AM 1/29/2020

"
So what is the coronavirus, and is the media concern surrounding it justified? A coronavirus is a type of normally mild virus that causes non-lethal respiratory viruses, but sometimes can be lethal, as has been the case with the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China. The particular trait that makes coronavirus especially sinister, however, is that, unlike its previous siblings of SARS and MERS, the Wuhan coronavirus is contagious during its asymptomatic incubation period of one to fourteen days, and therefore, can be transmitted from carriers that appear to be healthy although they already have been infected. Consequently, because its method of transmission is so stealth, it is truly difficult to assess how many people have been infected, even though media reports put the number at 2,000 to 4,000 with 100 dead thus far. "


source:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-01-28/will-coronavirus-be-black-swan-pops-bubble-everything-2020

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  #976 (permalink)
 Trailer Guy 
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Zero Hedge has laid out a case for this virus being an escapee from the lab. I think the case is reasonable. The people running the lab were escorted out of Canada for stealing the Saudi corona virus several years ago.

Part of their thesis rests on incompetent graduate assistants screwing up. Well we have a former bio research post doc in the family. A person who has been published in several leading bio research magazines ( Cell, Nature etc.). They have worked in several university research labs and because their specialty is used by wet labs they have collaborated with many more. Sloppy procedures and taking shortcuts knows no boundaries. Given the articles in the past documenting the cheating in China to get into Doctoral programs and the published criticisms of this lab in the past (and the SARS jailbreak in Beijing) I am just saying in my uneducated opinion the jail break theory is possible. If it is the truth and thousands die because of sloppy procedures what government would not cover it up. Given the Asian need to save face just adds to the desire to cover up a deeply shameful event.

Tonight The Lancet is estimating the true death rate at 10%. Given the R0 and that death rate this thing could easily make the Spanish Influenza look like a walk in the park.

Remember what happened to Japanese supply chains after the big earthquake? Well I do think we are about to find outhow dependent we are on Chinese parts.

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  #977 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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I thought this was good

source:



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  #978 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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last night (in o/n) session we had a drop of
-37.75

After WHO Director Dr. Tedros didn't say the words 'global emergency' in the first two minutes of the WHO's Thursday press conference, stocks jumped, but were quickly stymied when he finally got around to the announce after a lengthy preamble: The WHO has officially declared the coronavirus a ' Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).'

ZH

After this they rocketed upward to the 3292 area. Hard to see why expect US govt market manipulation.

They are "all-in" in the rigged casino.


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  #979 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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Doh!



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  #980 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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2. Application of Price Limits from Start of Trading Day to 8:30 a.m. From the start of any Trading Day until 8:30 a.m., there shall be no trading in any futures contract for a given delivery month at any price that is either strictly lower than or strictly higher than the range defined by the 5% Price Limits (Rule 35802.I.1.) applicable to such futures contract on such Trading Day.

Without limitation to the foregoing, the start of any Trading Day generally shall coincide with the start of the CME Globex trading session at 5:00 p.m. on the evening first preceding such Trading Day. If the Primary Futures contract Month is limit bid or limit offered at 8:23 a.m. and remains limit bid or limit offered at 8:25 a.m., then futures trading shall halt and remain halted until 8:30 a.m. Prior to reopening of Globex trading in futures at 8:30 a.m., the Exchange shall provide indicative opening prices in accord with Rule 573

https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/rulebook/CME/IV/350/358/358.pdf

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