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  #961 (permalink)
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10:36 AM 9/18/2019
For the swing traders:


Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
help to convert from thinkscript to ninjascript
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IB Bracker Order
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Where is the link to download GomiRecorder?
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  #962 (permalink)
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aquarian1 View Post
Trying to guess the break of FOMC - I say down.
H/L est
3011.25
2973.00

High Est 3011.25
Actual High 3012.25
Dif= -1.00

Low Est 2973.00
Actual Low 2980.75
Dif= -7.75

So the market went down first and then up. The up leg was bigger so the"dir" was +1.
I do not have a place in the model for two directions for the day. So fpr today I would need a place for first dir1 and then dir2. In any case the model only is for the larger of the two.

Today the model was correct the dir was +1.
(in any case I didn't capture that as when it fell and not bounce I felt it would fall further after a bounce. However, I didn't know that Trump tweeted his displeasure and that Powell later came out with an announcement of more QE - not part of the FOMC notes.

I don't recall this happening before

Dir 1

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #963 (permalink)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qH5QzuzD01A

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #964 (permalink)
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Looks great 2:30 in....no time now but totally looking forward to it.... Thanks a ton. Not sure why I haven't sprung for Real Vision yet???? Shame on me.

Ron

...My calamity is My providence, outwardly it is fire and vengeance, but inwardly it is light and mercy...
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
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  #965 (permalink)
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drop started at 11:35

ZH at Fri, 09/27/2019 - 11:40

In what appears to dismiss President Trump's claims that a deal is a lot closer than you think, Bloomberg reports that the White House is said to support a review of investment limits for China.

Among the options the Trump administration is considering:

delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges and

limiting Americans’ exposure to the Chinese market through government pension fund

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #966 (permalink)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apmAE0cfEPY

'https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apmAE0cfEPY

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #967 (permalink)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eDY-x6FRFY
'https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eDY-x6FRFY


getting money out

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #968 (permalink)
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11:32 AM 10/7/2019

So here's a piece of Cod-swallop (see article below).
Notice
1. “robust, dynamic ‘ecosystem’ (great tell - ecosystem ???? PR BS)
1B "made up of many players.” - of yes and what percentage do these "many players hold? 5%?? - no numbers big tell...

2. It’s also made up of what are known as “authorized participants” and “market makers.” (soon to vanish at the first sign of trouble

3. dynamically” manage the creation and redemption of ETF shares (well of course they HAVE TO - "dynamically??" "rhythmically?" "in sophisticated nuance?" - I too can sling it...:-)

I think she doth protest too much..
or
"relax folks - nothing to see here.."

------------------------



As the universe of exchange-traded funds in general, and passively-managed ETFs in particular, has exploded, so have worries about market contagion. If investors panic-sell all at once, the concern goes, the massive concentrations of securities within certain funds could make markets seize up.

New research from iShares, the ETF arm of BlackRock Inc., BLK, -0.68% attempts to lay that fear to rest. The vast majority of trading happens between investors, on what’s called “the secondary market,” meaning the broader financial marketplace is not impacted.

The ETF industry is supported by what iShares calls a “robust, dynamic ‘ecosystem’ made up of many players.” One of the primary innovations that distinguish ETFs from mutual funds is the fact that they are traded between investors on an exchange, as opposed to mutual funds, which are purchased or redeemed from the fund manager.

But, as iShares makes clear, that “ecosystem” doesn’t just include buyers and sellers. It’s also made up of what are known as “authorized participants” and “market makers.”

Those entities are large financial institutions that work directly with an ETF provider to “dynamically” manage the creation and redemption of ETF shares. Authorized participants are usually banks, like Goldman Sachs GS, +0.30% or Citigroup C, +0.32%, that have agreements with ETF sponsors to engage in this activity. Market makers are broker-dealers that provide the same kind of liquidity, by buying and selling shares of a fund with investors. Market makers include some less-familiar companies like Jane Street and Virtu Financial.

iShares’ new research draws on filings that fund companies make every year to the Securities and Exchange Commission to determine just how robust the authorized participant and market maker universe is.

Sourcehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-etfs-cant-bring-down-the-financial-system-ishares-says-2019-10-07?siteid=rss&rss=1

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #969 (permalink)
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10:39 AM 10/29/2019

Well, ddn't play it well today.
Doorbell rang at opening and I should have stood asde -- no trading
But being me.. forced it.

I have this conviction that we are ready for a big drop.

Of course, I should wait til FOMC Wednesday to trade that.

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #970 (permalink)
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2:43 PM 12/25/2019

The aggregate funded ratio for firefighter and police retirement systems outside of Chicago fell to 55.47% in 2017 from 57.58% in the prior year, according to a July report from the Illinois Legislature’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability.
Unfunded liabilities rose by $1 billion to $11 billion.

Bear in mind after the biggest bull market in history, the average municipal funding ratio outside of Chicago is 55.47%.

Some plans are 30% funded.

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/illinois-pension-plans-dumps-1-billion-in-value-stocks-to-self-manage-Ydf3PBO7jUmJcke48QDnNw
-
In fiscal year 2019, state estimates of Illinois’ total unfunded pension liability rose to $137 billion from $131 billion, despite paying more than $10 billion to the funds – the largest annual contribution in state history.

State taxpayers can expect to pay more for pensions in fiscal year 2020 with projected contributions set to reach nearly $11 billion, according to the reports. The share of the state budget devoted to pension costs will then be 27%, up from 25% in fiscal year 2019.

Pension experts consider a funding ratio of less than 60% to be “deeply troubled,” while a 40% funding ratio may be a “point of no return,” meaning an inability to make required contributions or maintain adequate funding levels – without painful cuts or serious structural reforms.

https://www.illinoispolicy.org/report-illinois-pension-debt-soars-to-137b-despite-record-taxpayer-contributions/

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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