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  #941 (permalink)
Phoenix Arizona
 
Experience: Beginner
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Hey Aquarian, Hope all is well. Thanks for posting this. This seems like such a violation of established American constitutional rights, that I can hardly stomach it!!! This can definitely open the door to many abuses of power.

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  #942 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
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Pariah Carey View Post
Regarding the deceased individual in this story, assuming the facts reported in the link are true, he did just about everything wrong that you could do in this situation.

I mean first of all, if the cops come to your house, for whatever reason, don’t answer the door with a gun in your hand. Really. That is just not cool.

All in all though, this law seems like a bad idea.

I think there is some mixed things here:

"I represent people in restraining orders a fair amount (we call them orders of protection."

This is not what was done here. It is not that someone feared for there life and an emergency situation existed requiring the immediate action - then it would be a different court order and the investigation officer is required (if they do their job properly to conduct a reasonably thorough investigation - talking to others to corroborate the claimants story etc and unless it is an emergency situation the person against whom the complaint is made.) Then with the officer's evidence the judge decides if an order is warranted. Now it the claimant is making a false complaint then they can and should be charged with public mischief.

However, none of this applies here.

Though there is no requirement on the police to be reasonable and respectful, conversely there is no responsibility on the police department to act irresponsibility. There is no requirement to create an early dawn raid, waking an elderly man from his sleep. When a person is woken up at 5:17am they have not had there morning coffee etc.

Who the HELL comes banging on your door at 5:17am?
You are going to be pissed off.
You are going to be in a bad mood.
You are going to be irate.

Perhaps it's is someone casing your home to break-in if your not home.
Perhaps its a home invader. You open up the door and thugs (or druggies) push in and beat you to death. An addict can do crazy things. How do you know who is there?

You would be a fool to not be concerned and not have some protection against some yahoo banging on your door at 5am.

So the police DELIBERTY AND UNNECESSARILY created a conflict situation. They are trained in defusing a conflict and tension -- not creating it.

The man initially put is handgun down. Certainly the officers showed lack of lack politeness and judgement to take that and end up killing the man in his own home.


So here's a question:
How many police officers at their home, when roused at 5:17am would answer their door without their handgun in case its a nut-bar on the other side?

You have the right to protect yourself - don't know who is on the other side of the door.

--

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #943 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 3,870 since Dec 2010
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"Then after youve put it down, DONT PICK IT BACK UP! "

well of course - but just think how poorly the police must have proceeded.

I'm sure it didn't go:

"Mr Wilis thank-you for putting the gun down.
There is a new law where another person can request your guns be removed for their or your safety.

The reason we are here is that an order was issued to take your guns under this new law.
It is just temporary and you will have a date to come to court present your case and get them back.

I am sorry about this but it is a court order we are required to enforce.

--- At 5:17am?

No, you're right about that. My Sargent sent me here at this time. My apologies for disturbing you.
This is all new but you should have a court date set for about 10 days from now.

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #944 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 3,870 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,472 given, 2,480 received

position sizing and streak of losses

After a lot of digging I couldn't really come-up with what I was looking for.

So the idea of having an initial string of loser followed by a string of winners (say 4 and 4)- it takes a bigger percentage return to get back to even.

I made a spreadsheet which generates 1000 trades/bets on each calc and gives one a summary line.
(available to anyone who asks me for it)


Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #945 (permalink)
Boise, Idaho/USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja Trader 8
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Saw this on the internet a couple of years ago. Thanks to whom ever put it together.

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  #946 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
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Contract increase versus risk of ruin

@Trailer Guy

Many thanks!. Yes I also saw this at the beginning of my research. It is interesting and their is a free spreadsheet for it.

For myself that was step1.

Lets say you use 60% and see that 6 consecutive is 16.9%. (in 50 trades). -ok in 50 trades is way too small iMO, however, was is the odds of getting a break of let's say 4 wins and then get ANOTHER losing streak of 6?

That's why I made 1000 trades and then had the spreadsheet do a recalc each time I hit a Cntl J - to run the keystroke macro. It does another 1000 trades and gives me another summary line.

From this Monte Carlo type simulation I can see where the losing streaks come in the 1000 trades and how long they are.

The second thing is what happens when I increase my contracts once my account balance increases by a certain amount (eg $5,000)? How does that effect the growth versus the risk of ruin?

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #947 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 3,870 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,472 given, 2,480 received

mirco emini

micro emini

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #948 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 3,870 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,472 given, 2,480 received

I worked a bit with my Monte Carlo calculator.

To move the risk of ruin to zero and I think I will need to get
2:1 W:L ratio
and
2:1 R:R ratio


Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #949 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 3,870 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,472 given, 2,480 received

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hidqABq4Yc

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #950 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 3,870 since Dec 2010
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Plunge protection team member retires


"[W]hen it is time for us to sell, or even to stop buying, the response could be quite strong; there is every reason to expect a strong response. So there are a couple of ways to look at it. It is about $1.2 trillion in sales; you take 60 months, you get about $20 billion a month. That is a very doable thing, it sounds like, in a market where the norm by the middle of next year is $80 billion a month. Another way to look at it, though, is that its not so much the sale, the duration; its also unloading our short volatility position."

source:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-28/head-plunge-protection-team-quitting

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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