Trading - futures io
futures io



Trading


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one aquarian1 with 952 posts (312 thanks)
    2. looks_two dario1 with 6 posts (2 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Big Mike with 4 posts (1 thanks)
    4. looks_4 xplorer with 4 posts (1 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Pariah Carey with 5 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Hanneke with 1.5 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Ddawg with 1 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 aquarian1 with 0.3 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 134,211 views
    2. thumb_up 357 thanks given
    3. group 56 followers
    1. forum 997 posts
    2. attach_file 456 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Trading

(login for full post details)
  #851 (permalink)
 Sazon 
Roswell, GA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Futures
 
Sazon's Avatar
 
Posts: 235 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 928 given, 465 received


aquarian1 View Post
Yes of course (except fleeting - not sure about that).

...
"Well its because of x,y,z, datasets, ...fleeting. "

-------------
Limited thinking gives limited approach(es).
Does the mind of the Unlimited have limits?

"If you think something is impossible, don't bother the person doing it."

That was one rambling passive aggressive post that didn't say much. You're living in fantasy land if you think you can compare yourself to Jim Simons and I'm pretty sure your trading also reflects such. Frankly I could care less what you do so no need to worry about me "bothering" you. Good luck with that

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
Store value in variable when emas crossover easy language
EasyLanguage Programming
Order Flow Trade Detector Alert Sound
NinjaTrader
TO ALL
Traders Hideout
Coding first profitable weekly open
Elite EasyLanguage Algorithmic Trading
Does anyone have the code for Anchored Vwap to use in Qu …
Traders Hideout
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
Spoo-nalysis ES e-mini futures S&P 500
61 thanks
Why dont people trade 150 ES contracts?
38 thanks
How to work on strategy
26 thanks
Any long term success stories from funded traders in the …
26 thanks
How to avoid wiping out the accounts?
18 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #852 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,507 given, 2,591 received

Sazon

There was nothing encouraging positive or helpful in your post.
Jim is a mathematician - I am not.
Jim was not limited by limited thinking of EMH and showed in a very practical way that it is not true.
I didn't compare myself to Jim - nor his money.

The post wasn't about that - as I have clearly said.
You (deliberately?) missed the point of my reply.

There was no passive aggressive in it. I held that economists and many others can be limited thinkers writing long Phd thesis to "prove" EMH is true.

Though my post is not passive aggressive, your post was however is aggressive, sarcastic, sneering and rude.
rude "fantasy land", "rambling"
aggressive "your trading results" "Frankly I could care less what you do"
sarcastic "Good luck with that"
sneering "no need to worry about me 'bothering' you"

You continue on to say I said things that I didn't say.
Perhaps this makes it easier to launch your attack.

..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #853 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,507 given, 2,591 received


The run is becoming ridiculous (except perhaps to Yellen?)


..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #854 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,507 given, 2,591 received

CME

Monday, October 9 Globex Columbus Day Holiday Schedule Products listed on Globex are unaffected and will run on a normal schedule If you have any questions, please call the CME Global Command Center at +1 800 438 8616, in Europe at + 44 20 7623 4747 or in Asia at + 65 6532 5010

..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #855 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,507 given, 2,591 received

Prospect theory contains four main elements.

First, individuals derive utility not from wealth (or consumption) levels, but rather from gains and losses relative to some reference point.7

Second, individuals are more sensitive to losses than to gains, i.e., they exhibit loss aversion. The utility function captures the loss aversion of individuals in a kink at the reference point, with the function being steeper in the losses region compared to the gains region.

Third, individuals exhibit diminishing sensitivity to gains and losses, i.e., moving from a $100 to a $200 gain (or loss) has a larger utility impact than moving from a $10,100 to a $10,200 gain (or loss).

Fourth, the theory incorporates probability weighting: individuals weigh outcomes by subjective, transformed probabilities or decision weights, overweighting low probabilities and underweighting high probabilities.

Thaler (1980) was the first economist to apply prospect theory to economic issues and problems. While Kahneman and Tversky (1979) had focused on risky decisions, Thaler showed the importance of reference points and loss aversion in deterministic settings.

source:
https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2017/advanced-economicsciences2017.pdf

----------- From Nobel prize winner in economics 2017 ---

Re trading:
"individuals weigh outcomes by subjective, transformed probabilities or decision weights, overweighting low probabilities and underweighting high probabilities."

Perhaps one way of thinking of the second part, "underweighting high probabilities" :
1. is that in regards to setups and string of losses traders underweighting a string of large losses over the next x days.
2. in regards to markets underweighting a market crash.

..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #856 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,507 given, 2,591 received

19 Oct is the 30 year anniversary of 19 Oct 1987.

from today's news:
"Today, the South Korean and U.S. navies kicked off massive combined drills off the coast of the Korean peninsula amid heightened tensions, a training exercise which North Korea has warned may prompt another ballistic missile launch potentially to coincide with the launch of the Chinese 19th Party Congress on October 18."

..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #857 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,507 given, 2,591 received

"Two elements of human psychology contribute to our irrational neglect of preventive measures. We are not good at giving the appropriate weight to low-risk events, however catastrophic they may be,"

source:
How we are wired to ignore disaster until after it strikes - MarketWatch

..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to aquarian1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #858 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,507 given, 2,591 received

As you know Gann mentioned to watch for tops and bottoms at 5, 7, 10 ,20 and 30 years

18 Oct was a 30 yr anniversary. of Monday 18 Oct 1987.
This past Monday, 23 Oct, was the first Monday after the 18 Oct 2017.

on Monday we had a down day, tuesday up 7 and today down
-15.25
7.00
-23.50

(these are FE to SE - so HOD to LOD or vv)

I track swings of 30 pts or greater in the ES RTH.
We have just created the first down swing in a long time (-35.25 pts)
The previous rise was 161 pts to Monday's high 2576.75

As you recall the SP500 high was 1576 (or exactly 1000 pts higher) on Wed, Oct 25, 2017
before falling to 666 on Fri, Mar 6, 2009.


The last time we had a rise of 161 or greater was:
13-Dec-16, 194.25 to 2273.00
to:
23-Oct-17, 161.00 to 2576.75

Today I read:
1. a third aircraft carrier is has been sent to Asian waters - South Korea matching Trumps visit to the regioin
2. a downward 30 yr LT bond channel is close to broken
3. Why Italy faces worst shock in Europe as ECB prepares to taper bond buys
Why Italy faces worst shock in Europe as ECB prepares to taper bond buys - MarketWatch




very interesting

..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #859 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,507 given, 2,591 received

Short day on Thursday 23th Nov to 12CT
Closed Friday 24th

..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #860 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,507 given, 2,591 received


This video



shows the power of the subconscious mind and how it creates a large part of what we consciously perceive.

It is quite interesting how the subconscious creates from memory most of a perception before it "happens" in the conscious mind. Though we think of all of thought process as in the conscious mind it is only a thin layer around the outside ("like a bathing cap") the workhorse of thought is the subconscious.

The video of the woman saying fah bah in the sound chamber is fascinating as it the linking of touch to image (woman wearing camera viewer).

It says that reality is a construct and though we think we are perceiving it we are perceiving our internal construct. Consciously we can only keep track of a small amount of information.

There is direct implications of this perception portal to trading.

..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to aquarian1 for this post:


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > Trading


Last Updated on January 2, 2021


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts