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  #851 (permalink)
Roswell, GA
 
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aquarian1 View Post
Yes of course (except fleeting - not sure about that).

...
"Well its because of x,y,z, datasets, ...fleeting. "

-------------
Limited thinking gives limited approach(es).
Does the mind of the Unlimited have limits?

"If you think something is impossible, don't bother the person doing it."

That was one rambling passive aggressive post that didn't say much. You're living in fantasy land if you think you can compare yourself to Jim Simons and I'm pretty sure your trading also reflects such. Frankly I could care less what you do so no need to worry about me "bothering" you. Good luck with that

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  #852 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Sazon

There was nothing encouraging positive or helpful in your post.
Jim is a mathematician - I am not.
Jim was not limited by limited thinking of EMH and showed in a very practical way that it is not true.
I didn't compare myself to Jim - nor his money.

The post wasn't about that - as I have clearly said.
You (deliberately?) missed the point of my reply.

There was no passive aggressive in it. I held that economists and many others can be limited thinkers writing long Phd thesis to "prove" EMH is true.

Though my post is not passive aggressive, your post was however is aggressive, sarcastic, sneering and rude.
rude "fantasy land", "rambling"
aggressive "your trading results" "Frankly I could care less what you do"
sarcastic "Good luck with that"
sneering "no need to worry about me 'bothering' you"

You continue on to say I said things that I didn't say.
Perhaps this makes it easier to launch your attack.

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #853 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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The run is becoming ridiculous (except perhaps to Yellen?)


Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #854 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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CME

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Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #855 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Prospect theory contains four main elements.

First, individuals derive utility not from wealth (or consumption) levels, but rather from gains and losses relative to some reference point.7

Second, individuals are more sensitive to losses than to gains, i.e., they exhibit loss aversion. The utility function captures the loss aversion of individuals in a kink at the reference point, with the function being steeper in the losses region compared to the gains region.

Third, individuals exhibit diminishing sensitivity to gains and losses, i.e., moving from a $100 to a $200 gain (or loss) has a larger utility impact than moving from a $10,100 to a $10,200 gain (or loss).

Fourth, the theory incorporates probability weighting: individuals weigh outcomes by subjective, transformed probabilities or decision weights, overweighting low probabilities and underweighting high probabilities.

Thaler (1980) was the first economist to apply prospect theory to economic issues and problems. While Kahneman and Tversky (1979) had focused on risky decisions, Thaler showed the importance of reference points and loss aversion in deterministic settings.

source:
https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2017/advanced-economicsciences2017.pdf

----------- From Nobel prize winner in economics 2017 ---

Re trading:
"individuals weigh outcomes by subjective, transformed probabilities or decision weights, overweighting low probabilities and underweighting high probabilities."

Perhaps one way of thinking of the second part, "underweighting high probabilities" :
1. is that in regards to setups and string of losses traders underweighting a string of large losses over the next x days.
2. in regards to markets underweighting a market crash.

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #856 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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19 Oct is the 30 year anniversary of 19 Oct 1987.

from today's news:
"Today, the South Korean and U.S. navies kicked off massive combined drills off the coast of the Korean peninsula amid heightened tensions, a training exercise which North Korea has warned may prompt another ballistic missile launch potentially to coincide with the launch of the Chinese 19th Party Congress on October 18."

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #857 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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"Two elements of human psychology contribute to our irrational neglect of preventive measures. We are not good at giving the appropriate weight to low-risk events, however catastrophic they may be,"

source:
How we are wired to ignore disaster until after it strikes - MarketWatch

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #858 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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As you know Gann mentioned to watch for tops and bottoms at 5, 7, 10 ,20 and 30 years

18 Oct was a 30 yr anniversary. of Monday 18 Oct 1987.
This past Monday, 23 Oct, was the first Monday after the 18 Oct 2017.

on Monday we had a down day, tuesday up 7 and today down
-15.25
7.00
-23.50

(these are FE to SE - so HOD to LOD or vv)

I track swings of 30 pts or greater in the ES RTH.
We have just created the first down swing in a long time (-35.25 pts)
The previous rise was 161 pts to Monday's high 2576.75

As you recall the SP500 high was 1576 (or exactly 1000 pts higher) on Wed, Oct 25, 2017
before falling to 666 on Fri, Mar 6, 2009.


The last time we had a rise of 161 or greater was:
13-Dec-16, 194.25 to 2273.00
to:
23-Oct-17, 161.00 to 2576.75

Today I read:
1. a third aircraft carrier is has been sent to Asian waters - South Korea matching Trumps visit to the regioin
2. a downward 30 yr LT bond channel is close to broken
3. Why Italy faces worst shock in Europe as ECB prepares to taper bond buys
Why Italy faces worst shock in Europe as ECB prepares to taper bond buys - MarketWatch



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNuPajn_ezg
very interesting

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #859 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Short day on Thursday 23th Nov to 12CT
Closed Friday 24th

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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  #860 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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This video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0IueKTyV20

shows the power of the subconscious mind and how it creates a large part of what we consciously perceive.

It is quite interesting how the subconscious creates from memory most of a perception before it "happens" in the conscious mind. Though we think of all of thought process as in the conscious mind it is only a thin layer around the outside ("like a bathing cap") the workhorse of thought is the subconscious.

The video of the woman saying fah bah in the sound chamber is fascinating as it the linking of touch to image (woman wearing camera viewer).

It says that reality is a construct and though we think we are perceiving it we are perceiving our internal construct. Consciously we can only keep track of a small amount of information.

There is direct implications of this perception portal to trading.

Wear a mask, mandate others to wear masks, & remember that @WHO is criminally incompetent. To repeat:@WHO is criminally incompetent. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 31, 2020
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