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  #841 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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one chart says it all.

It only was able to get to 2498 by reg close 15:15 and so in the "island" they painted the tape to 2500.
Headlines forthcoming in MSM.!!! :-)

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  #842 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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test video CL trade

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  #843 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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In the aftermath of the storm, the most serious threat to the energy industry is the extended outage of refineries and pipelines, according to Goldman Sachs. The problem actually looks worse than it did earlier this week as the deluge has shifted towards Port Arthur, another refining hub. Motiva, which runs the U.S.’ largest refinery in Port Arthur, began to completely shut down its 600,000 bpd facility on Wednesday.

Goldman says the refinery shut downs, as of August 30, have spiked to 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d), although upstream oil production outages have dropped below 1 mb/d. More ports are now closed – in addition to Corpus Christi and Houston, the ports of Lake Charles, Beaumont, and Port Arthur have shut down.

These outages, the investment bank says, will mean that the “ongoing recovery in production will only be partial.” The refinery and pipeline closures are “leaving the oil market long 1.9 mb/d of crude vs. last Thursday, short 1.1 mb/d for gasoline and 0.8 mb/d for distillate.” Related: Venezuela’s “Oil Fire Sale” To Benefit Russia, China

More worrying is that the recovery might not be quick. While most refineries had controlled shut downs, there are quite a few, especially in the Port Arthur region, that have been inundated with water, which means that the damage to them is still unknown. Based on the past major hurricanes of Rita and Katrina, Goldman speculates that about 10 percent of the 4 mb/d of refining capacity that has been disrupted will remain offline for several months.

Other analysts agree that the damage could result in lengthier outages than many had hoped. “I'm actually quite concerned about Beaumont-Port Arthur because they just got a huge amount of rain in 24 hours, and we've already seen flooding within the refineries themselves, so we don't know exactly how bad it's going to be,” Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told CNBC. “If it is bad, you're looking at six to eight weeks of outages over in Beaumont-Port Arthur.”

Ultimately, that could mean that upstream oil producers will be unable to return to full production. Damage to pipelines, storage and processing facilities will also inhibit a full recovery. "It will be a while before operations can return to normal and the U.S. refining industry is bracing itself for an extended shutdown," Stephen Brennock of PVM wrote in a research note.

The prospect of lasting damage to the energy industry is sinking in. “Back to normal is months, not weeks, for exports and for the industry and the region. We have to acknowledge that,” Barclays analyst Michael Cohen wrote.

source:
Hurricane Harvey Is A Disaster For OPEC | OilPrice.com

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  #844 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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  #845 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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The six-person jury, which deliberated a little more than four hours starting Monday night and returned its verdict at approximately 12:15 a.m. Tuesday, found that the bank committed fraud, breached its fiduciary duty and broke a fee agreement, according to court papers.

"The nation's largest bank horribly mistreated me and this verdict provides protection to others from being mistreated by banks that think they're too powerful to be held accountable," said Hopper in a statement. "The country's largest bank, people we are supposed to trust with our livelihood, abused my family and me out of sheer ineptitude and greed. I'm blessed that I have the resources to hold JP Morgan accountable so other widows who don't have the same resources will be better protected in the future."

The bank's incompetence caused more than just unacceptably long timelines; bank representatives failed to meet financial deadlines for the assets under their control. In at least one instance, stock options were allowed to expire. In others, Mrs. Hopper's wishes to sell certain stock were ignored. The resulting losses, the jury found, resulted in actual damages and mental anguish suffered by Mrs. Hopper. With respect to Mr. Hopper's adult children, the jury found that they lost potential inheritance in excess of $3 million when the Bank chose to pay its lawyers' legal fees out of the estate account to defend claims against the Bank for violating its fiduciary duty.

"Mrs. Hopper asked the jury to send a message loud enough for JP Morgan to hear it all the way to Park Avenue in Manhattan," said Loewinsohn, "Hopefully, that message has been received."

Probably not: sadly for widow Hopper, she is unlikely to see the full award: large punitive damages verdicts like the one in the Hopper case are often scaled back because the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled they can’t be disproportionate to actual damages. In this case, the jury awarded less than $5 million in actual damages.

JPMorgan Ordered To Pay Over $4 Billion To Widow And Family | Zero Hedge

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  #846 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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As the following chart shows, the share of income received by the top 1% of families was 20.3% in 2013 and rose to 23.8% in 2016. The top 1% of families now receives nearly as large a share of total income as the next highest 9 percent of families combined (percentiles 91 through 99), who received 26.5 percent of all income. This share has remained fairly stable over the past quarter of a century. Correspondingly, the rising income share of the top 1 percent mirrors the declining income share of the bottom 90 percent of the distribution, which fell to 49.7 percent in 2016, the lowest on record.

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  #847 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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James Simons
Forbes says his net worth is $14B


min 7:50 -10:55
Efficient market theory not true, for example trending of a commodity is an anomaly.

"gradually we found more, and more and more anomalies."

They are not so overwhelming that you are going to clean up on a particular anomaly because if they were other people would have seen them. They have to be subtle things."

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  #848 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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It is interesting the flow of events.

On Satuarday, a beautiful day, I was waking the dog. I stop by J's place to stay Hi. We chatted a bit. I mentioned I have been learning the machine learning (ML) program Weka. He asked about ML and I gave an overview. J is an engineer and a fairly bright guy I would guess.

At one point he asked "Do you expect to find anything [with the ML]? Won't it all be stocastics
(I'm not sure but I think he means all noise) and you won't find anything repeatable and tradeable?"

Of course, I've heard all this before but for some reason it was depressing for him to say it.

Then later in the weekend I watch the Jim Simons interview. He explains that they fed factors they felt would be predictive into the ML prgs and tested them. And they have found and continue to find predictive factors.

So I guy whose made huge returns is saying it isn't noise, there indeed is information in the data, predictive information.

I see this as the Universal force of good giving me encouragement to keep going. It is, for me, no coincidence but a message clear and positive. When I get weak He strengthens me.

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  #849 (permalink)
 Sazon 
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aquarian1 View Post
It is interesting the flow of events.

On Satuarday, a beautiful day, I was waking the dog. I stop by J's place to stay Hi. We chatted a bit. I mentioned I have been learning the machine learning (ML) program Weka. He asked about ML and I gave an overview. J is an engineer and a fairly bright guy I would guess.

At one point he asked "Do you expect to find anything [with the ML]? Won't it all be stocastics
(I'm not sure but I think he means all noise) and you won't find anything repeatable and tradeable?"

Of course, I've heard all this before but for some reason it was depressing for him to say it.

Then later in the weekend I watch the Jim Simons interview. He explains that they fed factors they felt would be predictive into the ML prgs and tested them. And they have found and continue to find predictive factors.

So I guy whose made huge returns is saying it isn't noise, there indeed is information in the data, predictive information.

I see this as the Universal force of good giving me encouragement to keep going. It is, for me, no coincidence but a message clear and positive. When I get weak He strengthens me.


There is a difference. Jim Simons works with some of the smartest people in the world with upper echelon pedigrees. I would not expect to get the same results as him. He also mentioned that there is a barrier to entry with what he does because he works with huge volumes of datasets. He has access to the best data in the world and the best in the world analyzing it. I've also read and heard from others that statistical anomalies discovered using machine language are typically fleeting.

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  #850 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Sazon View Post
There is a difference. Jim Simons works with some of the smartest people in the world with upper echelon pedigrees. I would not expect to get the same results as him. He also mentioned that there is a barrier to entry with what he does because he works with huge volumes of datasets. He has access to the best data in the world and the best in the world analyzing it. I've also read and heard from others that statistical anomalies discovered using machine language are typically fleeting.

Yes of course (except fleeting - not sure about that).

My post is directed twofold:
1. Efficient market hypothesis is wrong.
2. People dumping on others in things they know nothing about.

Jim's "way" is only one way.
He is a conventional mathematician, conventional thinker conventional approach.

Naturally he will list "barriers" to entry. Do you think he wants competition?

-----------------
Many people are limited thinkers.
They believe something is impossible e.g. using historical data to make tradeable future predications. They argue for years in long-winded thesis that RW is a fact and use limited minds "prove" their assumption. Then when someone makes $17B -they argue:

"oh well this
and
oh well that."

They move the goal posts when shown to be wrong.
When their Phd thesis is wrong.
When their assumptions of really and what is possible are wrong.
They are erudite and still without the $17B.
Someone does the "impossible" and they reshape the box.
"Well its because of x,y,z, datasets, ...fleeting. "

-------------
Limited thinking gives limited approach(es).
Does the mind of the Unlimited have limits?

"If you think something is impossible, don't bother the person doing it."

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