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  #821 (permalink)
 Grantx 
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aquarian1 View Post
I think one of the key parts is how you determine if you have an edge.

What really stuck out for me was how the casinos create an edge by putting 2 green slots on the roulette wheel. Then, over thousands of spins they are making money. Its a really important concept and relates directly to trading. Not that we can gaurantee an edge like a casino does but by executing on a simple and tested methodology we get as close as possible to one.

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  #822 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Grantx View Post
What really stuck out for me was how the casinos create an edge by putting 2 green slots on the roulette wheel. Then, over thousands of spins they are making money. Its a really important concept and relates directly to trading. Not that we can gaurantee an edge like a casino does but by executing on a simple and tested methodology we get as close as possible to one.

Now to find our green slots!

casinos are well-financed and the long run works for them.
I think the whole game is so much easier with capital.

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  #823 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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This one was really good I thought

TRADING LEGENDS – Anton Kreil’s Interview with Ben Berggreen


I liked this guys attitude.
He talks how now the hedges funds are caught up with quants and algo and C++ programming and only finding tiny edges that evaporate quickly and can barely match the index
"closet indexers with fancy pedigrees"

Then there are the massive long funds that take years getting into and out of a position.

A lot of the knowledge hedge funds guys used to have they no longer have.
The retail can have a huge advantage learning about the markets being smaller and faster.

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  #824 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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  #825 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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10:22 AM 9/1/2017
Friday

Recently I have been thinking about my friends and the 2 year wall.

My orientation to life is positive.
"The great secret to life is that if you think positively you will get positive results, and if you think negatively you will get negative results." NV Peale via "The Strangest Secret" - Earl Nightingale recording (see visualization thread).

So to me the question is not:
"Is life positive or negative"?
but rather, since I want my life to be positive, happy productive and add to the well-being of all -
"How can I maintain a positive cheerful optimistic outlook in the face of a world that is often cynical negative and limitation bound?"

Therefore is it not - what is reality? But rather how can I fashion a positive creatively joyful reality. So my stance is not to be reactive to outside stimuli but rather procreative and generate internal stimuli that in line with my desire to create the life/reality I choose. The entire matter is to bring the power of creation back to ourselves.

The external world, and especially the MSM has a vested interest in drawing our attention to the negative, the fearful and the ugly. It is how they sell their newspapers, internet channels and TV. Like the mafia they profit from fear and terrorizing and intimating. It is what they are. It is not evil until I let it in, until I accept their selective external stimuli as the creative source for my thinking, react to it and let it shape my thoughts and vibrations.

"When you react to someone, you are letting them control you." - B Proctor, The Science of Getting Rich.

(Though of course the vast majority give MSM ear (under the guise of "keeping informed") it is evil -very very evil.)

So back to the central thought
"How to create a mind that creates success and positivity?"

1. Create a goal (a specific goal)
2. Create a vision of that goal
3. Write out a plan of how to bring that goal from thought-form into concrete form.
4. Take action

"...reduce your plan to writing if you have not already done so. The moment you have done this, you will have DEFINITELY given concrete form to the intangible DESIRE." Napoleon Hill "Think and Grow Rich" p129 - cp 1947.

When you are feeling depressed, bring into your mind the joyful positive future self you are in the process of manifesting. Abandon all feelings of depression and feel the joy your new reality will be, in the now, in the present. Bring the future to the present.

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  #826 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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aquarian1 View Post
I watched this this AM

In the video above Adam explores the concept of trading as creating your own casino - you are the house with the edge that will always win in the LR.

In this next one Adam fleshes it out. He speaks of the 3 components to being a successful trader:
  • your trading system
  • money management
  • psychology

Part 1


Part 2



The video is very good and shows you how and why you create your position sizing the key to your risk management system. He explains the relationship between win rate and win ratio and how to compute if your system is profitable. (Your expectancy).

If your numbers for these are accurate and supported by your trading system (e.g. trending following and entering long at MA support) then you know that your system will be profitable over a large number of trades and your position sizing makes sure you will get there. So a W:L of 2:1 and a Win rate of 60% will be profitable with the correct position sizing (snap#6)- which he shows you how to determine. He also includes a chart showing you the probability of a string of losses at different win rates (snap #1)

You need:
  • a trading system (your setup(s)) with 10-20 trades per month
  • a positive expectancy supported by correct position sizing
  • professional trading psychology (not excited by a win or depressed by a loss knowing that it is a random occurrence in a series of trades that will be profitable - according to your stats) with sufficient sample size
.

Note: In snap 5 the black curved line is the profitability line - I added the green lines


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  #827 (permalink)
NerradC
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hedgedequity View Post
Follow our Emini trading strategy (>65% returns per year). Verified track record.

maybe you should ask if anyone want a fish with a price tag or want to learn how to fish?
thank you for your fish, i would like to learn how to fish in style i inspire though
any tip?

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  #828 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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"Through some strange and powerful principle of "mental chemistry" which she has never divulged, Nature wraps up in the impulse of strong desire that something which recognizes no such word as impossible, and accepts no such reality as failure."

Napolean Hill, Think and Grow Rich, p65

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  #829 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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;; -)

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  #830 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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I have added hand charting the Horizon Oil Down=HOD to my workload.
My biggest struggle is to get all my work done.

Last weekend I completed the update of the handchart which is now from 31 July.
I was up late on Monday and couldn't get ready before the open for ES. I did feel it would be a short day (Tuesday) but somehow in my mind on Tuesday morning I was thinking it was Monday so I wasn't as keen to short.

Also my default range estimate was fairly narrow. This shouldn't have been a problem in theory as I know range expansion can happen suddenly (Tuesday was an expansion with the DRNK H-bomb test). There was lots of time but I just had too much in my mind to risk it - as it was far from clear.

My spreadsheets can be a little messed up with 4 day weeks.
At the end of Tuesday I saw a special 4 day update I needed to do and missed.

So long story short I missed the best trade of the week for ES.

Friday was the best trade day for HOD (2x inverse CL ETF). But once again too much work and I didn't get the handcart done up the night before.

Bottom line everything is a struggle against time.

Hopefully I'll get all caught up this weekend and be ready for a great week 433.

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