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  #791 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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11:08 AM 8/2/2017

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  #792 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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DeadCatBounced View Post
....
Most people I see spend all their time focusing on the technical analysis side of things. When that doesnít work they switch to psychology (which in some ways is easier: although I donít know what is wrong about my analysis of the markets I can very clearly see what is wrong in me). The problem with this singular approach is that if your analysis is still crap you are not going to make money. The problem with most technical analysis I see most people doing on here it all involves lagging indicators which are essentially random lines.

"here it all involves lagging indicators which are essentially random lines. "
its so funny because its so true.

from:

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  #793 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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@DropD

DropD View Post
"My best analogy of trading would be like trying to solve an algorithm equation while in a boxing ring trying to keep from getting punched in the face. '

-D

too funny! thanks!

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  #794 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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:-)



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  #795 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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Benchmark is an American venture capital firm responsible for the early stage funding of numerous successful startups including Dropbox,[1] Twitter, Uber,[2] Snapchat,[3] and Instagram.[4]

In 1997, the firm invested $6.7 million in eBay, which made it worth more than $5 billion by the spring of 1999.[5]

Other high-profile investments include CyanogenMod,[6] Domo,[7] New Relic,[8] Nextdoor,[9] Stitch Fix,[10] WeWork,[11] Yelp,[12] Zendesk,[13] Zillow[14] and Zipcar.[15]

Benchmark is noted for creating the first equal ownership and compensation structure for its partners.[16] The "maverick" firm[17] differs from most VC firms, which are named for their founders and are structured hierarchically; Benchmark is "a lean operation in which its six full-time partners share profits equally."[17]

The firm announced in May 2012 it would be expanding beyond its Menlo Park, California headquarters by opening a second headquarters with more than 10,000 square feet in San Franciscoís emerging tech corridor, the Mid-Market

source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benchmark_Capital

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  #796 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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9:23 AM 8/11/2017

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  #797 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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esintraday View Post
(

Hi aquarian1,

First, sorry I have to post this message on here - I haven't posted 5 times so I can't PM yet!

1) The little boxes are drawn, time-wise, on the RTH Open (the light yellow background is the first 2.5 hours of RTH, the darker yellow is the rest of RTH)

Price-wise, they represent the pre-market High and Low.

I hacked an indicator to draw them automatically. It's an inelegant programming solution though, I have to manually enter the numbers into the source file, compile, then the indicator just draws them.

Theyre not that useful in themselves on this ETH chart, but I populate them on the RTH chart which gives me a visual guide to the ETH highs and lows (I think they are important). And I can make a quick correspondence between the two charts.


2) Under the main chart is another indicator I hacked that derives off the Bollinger Band, indicating breaks of the Upper (purple) and Lower (dark blue) bands. The visual guide saves a bit of mental effort.


If I haven't made sense there, I hope this image will :-)



Happy to chat about more about any of this. I did have a few more words relating to the rest of your msg but I'll save them for PM!


)


Thanks very much for the reply.

(This is my trading journal - kind of a catch-all place)
should you want to start your own here is the link of the area
https://futures.io/trading-journals/
No problem conversing here though
(only stuff you feel like sharing :-)


1, Do you connect the bollinger dashes with pre high /low -- say to help spot a price reversal in RHT?
2. Have you tried Keltner (instead of Bollinger)?

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  #798 (permalink)
esintraday
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aquarian1 View Post

1, Do you connect the bollinger dashes with pre high /low -- say to help spot a price reversal in RHT?
2. Have you tried Keltner (instead of Bollinger)?



Ah I found it! :-)


Bollinger bands I find really helpful... but before that what is most important to me is market "Structure": given by for example the overall trend, ranging/overlapping areas, signficiant swing legs, signficant price areas... Interpreting the Daily and the 30m charts occupies the vast majority of my attention. I'm continutally perceiving it and updating my view of it: every new moment is particular only to itself. It precedes and directs my read of "Price action".

So the premarket H/L boxes on RTH are a visual aid in that respect.


Bollinger bands are a very useful indicator to me -- I like to have some broad sense of when the market is "overbought/oversold" (relative to "recent" time). But I am careful when I look at them... what they suggest to me I take to be hugely provisional, I interpret them very loosely. It is a useful heuristic to me, no more than that, I accept it as flawed. To me the idea of "precision" when interpreting indicators is a fallacy.


What I am trying to hold to mind most of the time is what NOT to do in what areas -- my habitual errors are to do with trading in areas that I should not be trading in, because of flinch trades, FOMO. So I am aiming to explicitly identify areas to avoid trading in before even thinking about taking entries.


With that said,

1. I wouldn't say I make deliberate connections between the two -- sometimes they correspond, sometimes they don't. Going further, sometimes they add huge value, but other times they add nothing at all. Every moment is unique which has to be respected. They do serve a similar purpose: primarily to let me know of price levels/areas that I should be cautious about taking breakout entries out of (my biggest cue prior to that comes from Structure). But that said, yes -- they can help when fading failed breakouts of particular ranges/overlapping areas, or entering Reversals.


2. I haven't tried Keltner. But I reckon that would do just a fine job for me too. I don't take the Bollinger bands too seriously. It happened to be the first "band"-type indicator I put on the chart and I've stuck with it. I don't take the 2,20 parameters too seriously either. (In fact this question is inspiring me to experiment it to 2,19 and then 2,21 etc. just to make the point to myself that the precise details don't matter a great deal). A rough and ready sense of "overbought/oversold" to keep me appropriately oriented is my intention.



So in the charts I attached, the market is trending, grinding, upwards, to new highs, with bear pullbacks struggling to make/maintain lower lows.

You can see some bollinger band breakouts do lead to swings -- mainly to the upside -- but, mostly they dont -- those to the downside. Same with breakouts of the premarket H/Ls.

So "Selling low" is generally bad, and by that I mean roughly "selling near double bottoms, and/or near premarket Ls, and/or near lower BB breaks"

(Now that does not mean "Buying low" is necessarily good by default, but an outline for thinking about going Long is established. Then it's case of perceiving price action in the right areas, getting a feel for proper/appropriate timing of entry, finding the right balance of trade parameters, doing it all fast enough, and so forth -- all that goes with actually taking a trade! :-) )

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  #799 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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esintraday View Post
Ah I found it! :-)

1. Bollinger bands are a very useful indicator to me -- I like to have some broad sense of when the market is "overbought/oversold" (relative to "recent" time).

2. I wouldn't say I make deliberate connections between the two -- sometimes they correspond, sometimes they don't. Going further, sometimes they add huge value, but other times they add nothing at all.

3. They do serve a similar purpose: primarily to let me know of price levels/areas that I should be cautious about taking breakout entries out of (my biggest cue prior to that comes from Structure).

3B. But that said, yes -- they can help when fading failed breakouts of particular ranges/overlapping areas, or entering Reversals.

4. I don't take the Bollinger bands too seriously. It happened to be the first "band"-type indicator I put on the chart and I've stuck with it.

5. I don't take the 2,20 parameters too seriously either. (In fact this question is inspiring me to experiment it to 2,19 and then 2,21 etc. just to make the point to myself that the precise details don't matter a great deal).

6. A rough and ready sense of "overbought/oversold" to keep me appropriately oriented is my intention.

7. You can see some bollinger band breakouts do lead to swings -- mainly to the upside -- but, mostly they dont -- those to the downside. Same with breakouts of the premarket H/Ls.

{

Hi ESintra!

Well way too much for one post so I've picked out the bits just on the Bollinger. (it's ok to just put in some stuff and then requote and put more in another)

On Bollinger bands or the dashes my question was how you would combine the two - as these were the two key features added onto your chart. It seems you don't.

For indicators I do use I establish a reason for the indicator (e.g. reversal, trend, etc) and then I go through many iterations of the settings to find the combination that work best for what I am using it for and the instrument traded.

I don't trade breakouts on the ES - unless a very big move is indicated. The reason for this is that ES is a "two steps forward, one step back" -cha, cah cha instrument.

}


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  #800 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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someone said to me:
"Even the best traders can only make 30% of the days range".

poppycock

Friday.docx

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