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  #741 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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2:51 PM 3/9/2017
Morning:
H/L est 2369.50 to 2357.50 = 12.00 diff

I remember Gann saying never follow someone else's advice unless you are SURE they know more than you do.
Today I was influenced by someone else's advice.


My estimate for the HOD was 2369.50 and it had made it to 2369.25 (ie one tick difference).
I was cautious because there was a stop-run at 2371 (two points higher), so I waited to see if it would stop there and it did. It was a couple of points lower but I could have gone short.

Then I read this person's view "Low is probably in". If that was true which is wasn't then 2361.50 was the low and +10.50 est rng = 2373. So if they were correct - which they weren't - the HOD was still to come.

So I didn't short reasoning that perhaps the HOD was yet to come.
Of course the HOD was in -which is what my estimates said.

(Note: the HL diff was 12 points which is how you go from 2369.50 to 2357.50)

Of course it fell to my low estimate of 2357.50 and then continued down to the stop run level below that (stop-run level was 2354.50 and it fell to 2354.00)

Naturally some of my switches were for an upday - but rarely are they all in agreement. Can't say if I should have shorted as this trump bull has made me cautious - but I can say i am very disappointed at missing this downday.


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  #742 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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source:
Fasanara Capital: This Is The Bear Case For Oil | Zero Hedge

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  #743 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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Proprietary Trading Firms - Traders Log

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  #744 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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from another place:
March 17 was Quadruple Witching day, and volatility was expected at the end of the day due to imbalance.

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  #745 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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A trade idea for CL

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  #746 (permalink)
DjRonin
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Thanks for the insight man... usefull idea.

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  #747 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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Edit : last year (is attached ie prior post wrong contract)

This year

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  #748 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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At this time 17:31 central time, I only see indecisive.

The key is to watch to see if it either pushes up trough 48.48
or fails at it or just below it or just above it.

Scenario A -fails
Should it fail = form a top and then drop below the uptrendline (which you would draw in the am - where the up arrow is - then you have a short trade - perhaps a 90 cent trade.

Scenario B- breakout
Should it breakout = push above 48.48 and continue to 48.78 then you could try a long trade
- no idea where it will go but could go to 50.41. This scenario would probably unfold with MSM rhetoric via the Saudis.

Scenario C - chop-slop
==> stand aside unless your scalping

Remember oil is very rumour driven and can take off and run with a rumour. (I doubt all the hedge fund spec longs are flushed out yet better moves are to the downside, as they decide to clear out more long positions)


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  #749 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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update on Cl

now it has broken uptrend (arrow),
if it breaks red horizontal it is expected to go down.

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  #750 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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the indexes reversed after the minutes of the Fed's latest meeting showed most policymakers thought the central bank should start trimming its $4.5 trillion balance sheet this year.

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