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  #731 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
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Volatility

The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) is currently in its 40th trading day without a 1% intraday move. This is the longest streak of tranquility in its history.

source:
A Fearless Market - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha

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  #732 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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This grind, or melt-up, is so discouraging.

I recall about three years ago it did the same thing in Jan&Feb. I remember thinking "how long can this go on?"
And it continued and continued.

It doesn't matter if people like Jim Rogers say, "interest rates will go so high you won't believe if I told you." And then when asked how the US govt will fund its' debt if rates go to 6 percent, will not it go bankrupt? "What makes you think that countries cannot go bankrupt? Indeed that is what has happened so often before in history." "I hope you are worried, very worried. This will end very badly. A lot of people will disappear."

A lot of people will disappear? Mass starvation?

Today I read an article how lost at sea experience well-known fund managers, some with 30 years experience, are. They must buy or be dammed, or, not buy and be dammed. Yet that is no solace.

There is my reality - sitting in a snowbank (metaphorically) alone. At times like these Gann's words haunt me: "the market can remain solvent longer than you can remain solvent."

I recall when Fed chairman (Alan Greenspan) ... called the markets "irrational exuberance" - yet they roared on for months more before the tech bubble burst.

Today I read that on Oct 16, 2016 Trump called out Yellen for keeping rates low for "far too long" for political reasons to help the Obama administration. Well it is the truth (though perhaps to help her Goldspan friends) but so what? Who listens to the truth when the pigs are snorting at the trough? The pigs? They are at the trough? Who cares about the elderly who have no retirement income and must decide between electricity or rent? Yellen? - I laugh in your general direction.

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  #733 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Saturday 17 Feb 2017
1. made TST strategy spreadsheet
2. added formula to estimate the week's HOW and LOW (in updatingchecklist)
==> test HOW/LOW formula in DD "RTH week" at bottom
==> you will need to look for an adjustment for the week's rng
==> week's dir? (check gap)
3. made formula to find swing trade for the week (in updatingchecklist)
=> update points amd Taylor from each past week to taylor and then to DD
=> look for sequence sets of Taylor days.
4. wrote out idea for mechanical trades based on dir, midpt and 3d avg rng
==> test with db search and computation
==> how often is dir est correct?
==> on days that it is incorrect can you find an identifying switch?

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  #734 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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MSNBC Anchor: "Our Job" Is To "Control Exactly What People Think"


BRZEZINSKI: "Well, I think that the dangerous, you know, edges here are that he is trying to undermine the media and trying to make up his own facts. And it could be that while unemployment and the economy worsens, he could have undermined the messaging so much that he can actually control exactly what people think. And that, that is our job."

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  #735 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Of the nearly 26,000 stocks in Hendrik Bessembinder’s database, more than half are losers.

Against T-bills, that is. The finance professor at Arizona State University studied almost nine decades of U.S. stock and bond performance and found that 58 percent of shares fail to outperform Treasury bills in their lifespan.

The research, which is currently a draft, may deal yet another blow to the active fund management industry. The results reinforce the importance of portfolio diversification, according to Bessembinder, and show why many actively-managed portfolios often underperform their benchmarks. Miss out on the relatively few stocks that generate large positive returns, and you lose.

Investors pulled $264 billion from actively managed U.S. equity funds in 2016 and there hasn’t been a calendar year of inflows since 2005, according to data from Morningstar Inc.

The study shows:

The average monthly return for U.S. stocks from 1926 to 2015 was 1.13 percent, compared with an average monthly T-bill rate of 0.38 percent.
However, on an individual basis less than half of monthly stock returns were positive.
Less than 4 percent of stocks in the Center for Research in Security Prices database -- or about 1,000 -- were responsible for all of the $31.8 trillion in wealth created by U.S. equities in the period. Of those, 86 companies generated half of the returns.

To be sure, the stock market as a whole did perform better than T-bills. But that’s attributable mainly to those large returns from relatively few stocks. Exxon Mobil Corp. alone accounted for about 3 percent of wealth created and Apple Inc. for about 2 percent.

“Slightly more than four out of every seven stocks do not outperform Treasury bills over their lives,” the professor wrote in the draft paper published in SSRN, a repository of academic research.

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  #736 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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aquarian1 View Post
5 notable quotes from Schwager’s interview with Schwartz:

top-step unplugged


Amherst college

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  #737 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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HTML Code:
https://vimeo.com/203498127

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  #738 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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One of the deepest revelations is that the agency is able to hack Internet-connected televisions, including Samsung smart TVs, through a program called “Weeping Angel”.

Basically the CIA can turn your TV into a listening device, recording conversations in the room and transmitting the audio to a CIA server.

Even if you think the TV is off, it’s not.

CIA hackers have been able to spoof the on/off display and set the television to a “false off” mode.

Bottom line, no device that’s connected to the outside world is truly safe.

And future Wikileaks publications may show that the intelligence community is hacking home automation devices, Internet-connected automobiles (including driverless vehicles), and artificial intelligence like Amazon’s Alexa.

It’s hard to be shocked at this point that the government is spying on its own allies and citizens.

This is just the latest in a pattern of brazen surveillance and flagrant Constitutional violations on the part of the US intelligence community.

But that’s precisely what I find MOST concerning - the LACK of concern over these new CIA documents.

People have such a low expectation of their government now, and have become so accustomed to the government routinely violating their civil liberties, that there’s hardly any public outrage anymore about these spying scandals.

More importantly, the lack of concern is indicative of what freedom means in the Land of the Free today.

Here’s a great example–

Young people are traditionally the most politically charged activists in the country.

But where are the protests across university campuses demanding freedom and privacy?

It’s not happening.

That’s because university students are too busy protesting against ideas they don’t want to hear about.

At Middlebury College last week, a small liberal arts school in Vermont, a small mob of student protestors physically assaulted a conservative speaker because his ideas offended them.

They couldn’t simply skip the lecture and allow interested students to attend.

No, they had to engage in violent censorship, oppressing any idea that doesn’t conform to their narrow agenda.

The only thing these cry bullies are interested in hearing is apologetic white men groveling over their privilege.

This is the new reality in the Land of the Free: freedom has deteriorated into some gender studies professor’s socialist fantasy.

Constitutionally guaranteed liberties have become irrelevant.

Forget about “free speech”.

Any intellectual dissent from the intolerant Social Justice view is now considered “hate speech”.

And the Fourth Amendment, which establishes “the right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects against unreasonable searches and seizures,” has become a distant memory.

As a child who grew up in the 80s during the height of the Cold War, I imagine there would have been widespread disgust if a similar scandal had been exposed.

Spying on citizens and allies? That’s what the Soviet Union did.

But today, everything else is more important.

Transgender bathrooms. Silencing hate speech. Forcing elementary school children to feel guilty about their white privilege. Political correctness in extremis. #everyone-else-but-white-people’s-lives-matter.

This is what dominates the social conversation now in the Land of the Free.

Privacy is no longer a Western value.

After all, people narcissistically upload their entire lives to social media (as if anyone cares what they’re having for dinner) so that Mark Zuckerberg can auction off our details to the highest bidder.

And it is precisely this decline that I find most disturbing.

Some people hold the idiotic belief that, “If I have nothing to hide, I have nothing to fear.”

This is dangerous logic, for so many reasons.

Even the use of the word ‘hide’ is ridiculous… as if the fact that I don’t upload photos of my nether regions to Instagram means that I’m “hiding” something.

We all keep things private. It’s why we wear clothing, don’t discuss our personal finances in polite company, and worry when our social security number is stolen.

But more importantly, if it doesn’t matter that the CIA is monitoring people’s most intimate moments, then does anything matter?

They keep moving the line, probing deeper and deeper into our lives and enveloping the nation inside an Orwellian surveillance state.

And it doesn’t stop… because we’re in the midst of a complete breakdown of western values.
source:tyler of ZH

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  #739 (permalink)
 Ddawg 
Phoenix Arizona
 
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Good to see you posting again Ian! I have missed your posts.

Danny

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  #740 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Ddawg View Post
Good to see you posting again Ian! I have missed your posts.

Danny

Thanks Danny.
I hope all is well with your combine.
(I sometimes post in the visualization thread - thing is I have been very tired lately and working so many hours it's hard to find the time. Also I have been hiking to Starbucks which is about 45 min each day - more time...)

hoping for a few down days but they seem few and far between lately.

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