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  #701 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Does someone know?
1. What the coupon rate is on the current 10yr notes?
2. What price would the notes (ZN) have to fall to to get the yield to 2.6%?

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  #702 (permalink)
emptymind
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aquarian1 View Post
We’ve posted many times on the GDOW due to its reliable conformity to technical charting tools, despite the fact that very little money is traded off of it. Additionally, we have found it to be an accurate barometer of the state of the global equity market. Specifically, the GDOW is an equally-weighted index of 150 of the world’s largest stocks. While this includes U.S.-based companies, its heavy dose of international exposure has led to its aforementioned position below its all-time high.

Furthermore, it is currently running into potential resistance in the form of its post-2007 Down trendline connecting the 2007, 2014 and 2015 tops.
source:
Global Equities Encountering Resistance At Year-End | Zero Hedge

SPDR Global DOW ETF (DGT)

Interesting.
I look at the Global Dow myself and see that it has been testing key resistance level. Would you say this is a leading index relative to all the other indexes?

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  #703 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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emptymind View Post
Interesting.
I look at the Global Dow myself and see that it has been testing key resistance level. Would you say this is a leading index relative to all the other indexes?

Actually, I hadn't heard of it before I found the article I posted above.

I'm not sure if it would be leading all other indexes if it reflection of a composite of indexes.
But it could be useful in leading the US indexes downwards in an abnormal cycle like this.

So many things are never happened before - like the Fed forcing the cost of capital down to zero for the banks to speculate with. Also look at the US currency. There is no real reason for it to be so strong, except that all the other countries are so weak which is of course why it is strong - a winner by default.

So emerging countries which must pay back US denominated debt are getting crushed by debt payments. Those who have oil used to have an out but it (oil) is staggering and will toter over soon.

I have the feeling this whole house of cards charade will end badly, very badly.

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  #704 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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Gone are the already-flimsy privacy protections that required NSA analysts to review data before handing it over to other agencies like the CIA, DEA, DHS, or others. Whereas prior restrictions required analysts to shield the identities of innocent parties and other personal data before sharing only the information deemed pertinent, there are now no filters whatsoever.
the new procedures lifts previous limits placed on the way information was filtered before being disseminated to individual agencies.
will allow the NSA to share the private data it collects with all 16 agencies of the United States intelligence community.

"we need much stronger rules to protect the privacy of Americans. Seventeen different government agencies shouldn’t be rooting through Americans’ emails with family members, friends and colleagues, all without ever obtaining a warrant.” ACLU lawyer Pat Toomey

And if all else fails, any U.S. Intelligence Agency can legally obtain personal information on any citizen with no warrant under Section 702 of the FISA Amendments Act
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/20/fisa-court-nsa-without-warrant

While the purpose of Executive Order 12333
https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/codification/executive-order/12333.html
is to target foreign and counter-intelligence only, if an agency uncovers information that incriminates an American citizen, the agency is required to turn the evidence over to the Justice Department. Many of the requirements listed in the document for targeting American citizens have been redacted.

. However, with these new procedures in place, that may not be necessary anymore.

source:
Snowden Slams Obama After Expanding "Unchained NSA" Surveillance Powers For Donald Trump | Zero Hedge

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  #705 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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From Cobra's

Trading Setups | Cobra's Market View

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  #706 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
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Clippings from article on superrich


Oxfam used Forbes' billionaires list that was last published in March 2016 to make its headline claim. According to the Forbes list,
  1. Microsoft founder Gates is the richest individual with a net worth of $75 billion. The others, in order of ranking,
  2. are Amancio Ortega, the Spanish founder of fashion house Inditex,
  3. financier Warren Buffett,
  4. Mexican business magnate Carlos Slim Helu,
  5. Amazon boss Jeff Bezos,
  6. Facebook creator Mark Zuckerberg,
  7. Oracle's Larry Ellison and
  8. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York.
Max Lawson, Oxfam's policy adviser, urged billionaires to "do the right thing," and to do "what Bill Gates has called on them to do, which is pay their taxes."

The ability of the rich to avoid paying their fair share of taxes was vividly exposed last year in the so-called "Panama Papers," a leaked trove of data that revealed details on offshore accounts that helped individuals shelter their wealth.

"We have a situation where billionaires are paying less tax often than their cleaner or their secretary," Lawson told The Associated Press. "That's crazy."

In its own pre-Davos survey of more than 33,000 people across 28 markets, Edelman found the largest-ever drop in trust across government, business, media and even non-governmental organizations. CEO credibility is at an all-time low and government leaders are the least trusted group, according to the survey.

The firm's 2017 Trust Barometer found that 53 percent of respondents believe the current system has failed them in that it is unfair and offers few hopes for the future. That belief was evident for both the general population and those with college education.
Companies need to be transparent and honest with their employees about the changes taking place in the work-place, improve skills and pay fairly, he said.

The online survey was conducted between Oct. 13 and Nov. 16, 2016.

Just eight men, from Bill Gates to Michael Bloomberg, owning as much wealth as 3.6 billion people, according to an analysis by Oxfam released Monday.

source:
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2017/01/16/world/europe/ap-eu-davos-inequality.html

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  #707 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Two months ago, when looking at the monthly Evestment hedge fund fund flow report, we reported that investors had redeemed a net $14.2 billion from the industry in October, the fourth consecutive month of redemptions, bringing Year-to-date HF outflows to a net $77 billion removed from the industry. The breadth of redemption pressure in October was the industry’s largest in 2016 with 61% of reporting funds estimated to have net outflow during the month. Two months later it has only gotten worse, but before we get into the details, here is a quick summary of just why, courtesy of JPMorgan.

As JPM's equity strategist explains in a note summarizing active manager performance, 2016 was one of the most challenging years for active equity managers with only 32% of fundamental and quantitative funds outperforming their benchmarks. JPM estimates that large cap U.S. fundamental managers underperformed by a median 33 bp before fees, with Value managers outperforming (+0.77 bp vs. benchmark) and Growth managers underperforming (-79 bp vs. benchmark).

In more bad news for the buyside, JPM notes that even though (or perhaps because) the market finished up more than 9%, US equity funds saw net ~$50 billion outflows in 2016 and a record rotation from Active to Passive. Investors pulled ~$200 billion from active US equity funds. This is the single largest annual rotation out of active management. Meanwhile, passive equity funds (including ETFs) captured ~$150 billion of inflows.

Bond funds saw $118 billion inflows in 2016 as equity funds saw $43 billion in outflows (driven by redemptions from active equity funds).
Active equity funds lost a cumulative $198 billion in 2016 outflows as passive equity funds received $153 billion of inflows.

Meanwhile, as the chart on the left shows, gund flows highlight significant post-election rotation. The global search for yield in 2016 drove large bond fund inflows funded by equity outflows, though this trend reversed after the U.S. election. Since the election, equity funds have seen $52 billion in inflows, and bond funds $10 billion in outflows. Reflation-linked sectors saw the largest inflows while Healthcare and Discretionary experienced the largest outflows.

So what about just hedge funds? For the answer we go back to the latest reported by Evestment, in which we find that if the above mentioned October was bad, December was, in their own words, "a fitting end to a difficult year for the industry. While the level of outflows during the month was on par with prior years (an average of $18 billion removed over the last five Decembers) it marked the sixth month of outflows in the last seven, and resulted in Q4 not only being the fifth consecutive quarter of redemptions, but also the largest quarterly outflow from the industry since Q1 2009, and the height of the financial crisis.

Here are the highlights:

Investors redeemed an estimated $23.7 billion in December, and $43.2 billion in Q4 2016.
For the full year 2016, investors removed a net $106.0 billion from the hedge fund industry.
Redemptions from managed futures accelerated in December as the strategy disappointed investors in 2016.
Investors’ allocations decisions in 2015 and 2016 proved to be unfortunate as winning strategies faced the largest redemptions and vice versa.

And the "flow" details by product group and asset class:

To summarize, redemptions in 2016 were the industry’s largest since 2009, and the third year on record where investors removed more than they allocated.

source:
Over $100 Billion Redeemed From Hedge Funds In 2016 As Only 32% Outperform Their Benchmark | Zero Hedge

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  #708 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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After 12-72 hours without ATMs and EBT debit cards working, and without food to buy at the stores, electricity and other services, people will absolutely lose it.

There will be nothing else holding back the inner animal.
Do your friends and neighbors know that you prep and store lots of extra food, fuel and supplies?
...

There will be a lot revealed about the human character the next time a rise crisis hits and something lasts longer than a weekend storm.

Be prepared, and be on guard for signs like this – that things are not as stable as they appear on the surface:




Becoming self-sufficient, and cutting yourself out of the loop of dependency on the system, supply chain and people around you might be a good thing to do.

At the very least, a couple extra weeks of everything you might need in a crisis should be the minimum step to take – as political and economic unrest may well be coming, along with perhaps more than the average level of natural disasters and extreme weather events.These are not normal times.

h/t Vic Bishop at the Waking Times.

source:
Empty Shelves & Madness (In America): A Minor Winter Storm Drove People Into "Panic Buying Of Food And Basics" | Zero Hedge

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  #709 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Sometimes we work very hard and then feel we didn't get anything accomplished, when actually we did but we forgot to recognize it. A broker told me he never leaves the office without listing 10 accomplishments for the day.

accomplishments today
1. high est almost perfect 2267.75 vs 2267.50
2. expanded range from default - which was correct
3. updated Cntl J macro to improve the estimated default est using Q61:Q61 and Lend value to adjust.
4. feeling that they would push to low end today was correct, (low stp1=stops run)
5. choices at low included 2248.75, 2253.25 but my feeling that 48.75 wouldn't be taken today was correct.
6. worked on day type switch for "checkdown" day.
7. Got some exercise and fresh air- walked the dog.
8. Remember to take papaya enzyme with protein
9. got external wireless modem working - to strengthen signal
10. worked on networking the laptops

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  #710 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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High Est 2267.75
Actual High 2267.50
Dif= 0.25
Low Est 2253.75
Actual Low 2251.75
Dif= 2.00

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