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Started:January 30th, 2011 (12:29 PM) by aquarian1 Views / Replies:40,424 / 686
Last Reply:18 Hours Ago (12:10 PM) Attachments:358

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Trading

Old November 24th, 2016, 12:10 PM   #681 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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London Property Prices Falling Faster Than You Think, NAMA Warns - Bloomberg

U.K. real estate prices may be dropping at a much faster pace than official reports indicate, according to the Irish agency that manages property loans acquired from bailed-out banks.

Reports since Britain’s vote to leave the European Union point to the value of land in central London declining by more than 10 percent in the past year, while house prices are 11 percent below their 2014 peak, said Frank Daly, chairman of Ireland’s National Asset Management Agency, known as NAMA.

“Our analysis suggests that the fall in U.K. prices may be much higher than official estimates,” Daly told lawmakers in Dublin on Thursday.

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Old November 25th, 2016, 10:20 AM   #682 (permalink)
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London Property Prices Falling Faster Than You Think, NAMA Warns - Bloomberg

U.K. real estate prices may be dropping at a much faster pace than official reports indicate, according to the Irish agency that manages property loans acquired from bailed-out banks.

Reports since Britain’s vote to leave the European Union point to the value of land in central London declining by more than 10 percent in the past year, while house prices are 11 percent below their 2014 peak, said Frank Daly, chairman of Ireland’s National Asset Management Agency, known as NAMA.

“Our analysis suggests that the fall in U.K. prices may be much higher than official estimates,” Daly told lawmakers in Dublin on Thursday.

Wonder how much inventory is held off market by investment houses to quash supply?

Popular tactic with commercial property.

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Old November 25th, 2016, 11:28 AM   #683 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Yes.

Of course, I don't know much about real estate prices. I thought that the report was interesting combined with the weak European "growth"(?) and changing landscape with interest rates.

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Old December 6th, 2016, 01:27 PM   #684 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Marketwatch game
Starts 7 Dec 2016 end Jan 4 2017
shortswing12345 - Free stock market game - MarketWatch.com

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Old December 7th, 2016, 03:45 PM   #685 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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proshares etfs symbols

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
attached

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Old 18 Hours Ago   #686 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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The blackhole

“People see a developing black hole,” he said. This “increases the sense of there being little to lose for many” people.

Dec 9, 2016 9:32 AM


“There’s no non-messy way out of this,” said Luke Ellis, chief executive of Man Group, one of the world’s biggest hedge-fund firms with $80.7 billion in assets.

In a series of exclusive interviews with the Journal, hedge-fund executives overseeing around $280 billion in total highlighted a range of problems created by quantitative easing. The problems they highlight are precisely those that QE was designed to solve,

1. Damage to economic growth

Rather than kick-starting growth, quantitative easing may do the reverse. Some managers fear it distorts financial markets and undermines capitalism. That system relies on profit-hungry investors to differentiate between strong and weak companies—funding the strong while letting the weak die. QE, say some managers, doesn’t differentiate.

For instance, the Bank of England is buying the debt of firms it deems make “a material contribution” to the U.K. economy. That has led some investment banks and companies to create new debt especially for it to buy. The ECB has bought €48.2 billion ($51.2 billion) of corporate debt since June, but the hoped-for private-sector investment hasn’t materialized.

“What does a market do? It’s a voting mechanism,” said Michael Hintze, billionaire founder of hedge fund CQS, which runs around $12 billion in assets. “Instead you’ve got this 800-pound gorilla out there who’s hoovering up assets. “There’s a misallocation of capital and an opportunity cost to the real economy,” added Mr. Hintze, whose portfolio is up 30% this year, ranking it one of the world’s top-performing hedge funds. “It means GDP is not growing as much as it might.”

Some put it even more strongly. “It’s definitely destructive of economic growth,” said Crispin Odey, founder of Odey Asset Management, which runs $8.2 billion in assets.

“Capitalism dies a death,” said Mr. Odey, who sees government policy as the main factor influencing markets. His fund, a top performer after the credit crisis, is down sharply this year because of being too bearish. “It’s all policy. It’s the Kremlin. And I’m in the gulags.”

* * *
Damage to society

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has said low rates have robbed savers.

Andrew McCaffery, group head of solutions at Aberdeen Asset Management, who looks after $170 billion in assets.
Ultralow interest rates mean the large part of the population with few financial assets begins to despair of how to generate income to fund retirement, he said.

Andrew Law, chief executive of New York-based Caxton Associates LP, which runs around $7.8 billion, said quantitative easing averted economic depression after the financial crisis.But he added: “The losers of QE are society, and democracy is also a loser, because central banks are not publicly elected officials.”

* * *

2. Deflation
Quantitative easing was also introduced as a way of increasing private-sector spending and raising inflation. Some investors even worried it would spark hyperinflation and rushed to buy gold. Instead, say some managers, it has led to deflation.

“It took me a long time to work it out,” said CQS’s Mr. Hintze. “It’s a very complex issue.” He said that massive amounts of liquidity mean that “liquidity’s not worth much anymore,” which leads to negative interest rates. “I do think it [QE] is a massive deflationary force. The reason is because money is worth less but the price of real assets goes up.”

Mr. Odey said quantitative easing leads to deflation because weaker competitors are kept alive by cheap debt as “zombie” companies.

* * *

Hard stop

Finally, hedge-fund managers see difficulty in ending quantitative easing.

“Central banks are sadly helping to create the ‘black hole,’ and the sucking noise and pull is getting bigger,” said Aberdeen’s Mr. McCaffery, “but you just have to keep going as your alternative options as a central banker are just too unpalatable to consider.

Using an analogy we first came up with in 2009, McCaffrey slammed the use of a drug placebo to keep the system intact: “More methadone is not going to help, a form of cold turkey [is] needed, but no central bank is going to do that,” he added. He warns governments’ debt-to-GDP levels have risen.

The punchline:

“In the long term, it implies rates can never go up, as the damage will be extraordinary in nature,” he said, as they struggle with their debt loads. For now, however, the market which moments ago hit new all time highs, is blissfully ignoring all of the above.

source:
Top Hedge Funds Predict How It All Will End | Zero Hedge

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Old 18 Hours Ago   #687 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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re the black hole

I think its hard to overstate the damage QE has done.

THe bankers would never do this with their own money - buying lousy debt worth pennies on the dollar for $1 on the $1. Bernake has the the financial destruction of the world to answer for - though of course morons will continue to pay the "baffleoon" for speaking engagements.

1. Savers/pensioners around the world are being robbed.
There or no safe income producing investments.

2. pension funds are engaging in risky investments and unable to stay cashflow positive building up enormous liabilities.

3. If capital has no cost then risk has no cost. What banker would lend to a business at zero percent?
"so you want to borrow $100,000 for your business expansion but you'll pay me nothing for my money and there is the chance you won't be able to repay me, is that the proposal?. Gee let me think... uhm, I'll pass."

What absurdity!

--------
Scenarios with the financial planner 1970:
So you contribute to your retirement savings plan earn a conservative 10% on your money and it builds and grows to produce you a solid retirement income of 70% per year.

Scenarios with the financial planner 2016:
So you contribute to your retirement savings plan earn a conservative 0% to -2% on your money and it doesn't grow you pay taxes on deflated dollars to try an cover your electricity bill and taxes growing at 7-10% per year.

Good trading to everyone.
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