Telsa software lock for extended range - crippled battery
Tesla (TSLA): The Battery Pack Rumors Are True - Global Equities Research
Global Equities analyst, Trip Chowdhry, believes the Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) rumors are true and the range of Model 3 will end at 250 miles; while the range of Model X/S will begin at 300 miles. To create production efficiencies,
TSLA will only manufacture 2 battery packs but software will control the available range. TSLA has the same Battery Pack installed for the models 60, 70 and 75, which have battery capacity of 60 kWh, 70 kWh, and 75 kWh respectively.
Once the customer pays for extended range, OTA (Over the Air) software unlocks the battery power for Model 70 and Model 75. TSLA is expected to have a new Battery Pack, which will be installed on the Model 85, Model 90 and Model 100, which will have the battery capacity of 85 kWh, 90kWh and 100kWh; again unlocked via a software switch.
The analyst's research shows that 100 kWh battery pack will easily push the Model S range to >300 miles, which would be a significant milestone for the industry.
The not so good news was that German central bank also quietly proposed raising the legal retirement age to 69 by 2060. Confirming that Germany will certainly not be immune from the financial repression that has crushed pension funds across the globe as a result of ZIRP and NIRP, the Bundesbank said that recent reforms won’t protect citizens from a drop in the level of pension payments from 2050. 2060 is just a placeholder: citizens who don’t opt for state-supported private insurance may face shortfalls a lot sooner. And they will. Worse, if low interest rates persist, and according to John Williams earlier today they will, available provisions could be further pressured.
Yet in a twist, it appears the biggest underfunding problem is not so much related to depressed interest rates, as one of simple demographics: according to the bank, while higher premiums could theoretically keep payouts stable, they would “raise the strain on those paying the contributions, and an increasing, high burden of payments overall has negative consequences on economic development." To avoid that, “the legal retirement age ultimately needs to be adjusted.”
According to Bloomberg, the Bundesbank said the government’s current plans that include raising the retirement age to 67 by 2030 and increasing contributions don’t account for the fact that the ratio of retirees to contributors is set to widen further. Increasing life expectancy means retirees will draw from pension funds for a longer period of time, and a generation of baby boomers that retires post-2030 means there will be more pensioners to take care of per working adult, while birth rates remain low, according to the report. Which, incidentally, explains Merkel's infatuation with getting millions of refugees inside Germany: to push the birth rate higher. If only it wasn't for those suicide bombers screwing up the calculation.
“Amid demographic change, the parameters of a contribution-based pension system can’t all be kept stable,” the Bundesbank said. “Confidence in pension insurance could be strengthened and uncertainty about financial stability at old age could be decreased if it were made clear how the parameters of retirement age, provision levels, and contribution rates can be adjusted in the long term."
Soros bearish turn was reported over two months ago, when the WSJ reported that the recently hacked billionaire had returned to active investing at his Soros Fund Management with "Big, bearish" bets on economic turmoil. Yesterday, in his latest 13F we got confirmation of just that when the hedge fund revealed that it had doubled the amount of its SPDR Puts to 4 million, or a notional equivalent of $839 million as of June 30, up from $431 million as of Q1.
While the actual notional amount is a far cry from previous nominal holdings, which peaked in June 2014, as a percentage of total assets, the bearish bet - which comes with the usual caveat that this position was actual as of 45 days ago and so much may have changed since then - was near a record high as a percentage of total Soros assets, which in Q2 were $4.7 billion, down substantially from the Q2 2014 peak of $13.2 billion.
This bearish bias may explain the recent turmoil at Soros' hedge fund, where as reported last week, CIO Scott Bessent stepped down after only 8 months at the job.
And in other notable position moves, Soros Fund Management sharply cut its shares in gold in the second quarter. The fund reduced its holdings in SPDR Gold Trust to 240,000 shares worth $30.4 million, from 1.05 million shares worth $123.5 million in the first quarter. Soros also drastically cut its stake in Barrick Gold Corp to 1.07 million shares worth $22.9 million, from 19.4 million shares in the first three months of 2016, the filing showed.
It appears that Soros is taking at least one part of Tepper's advice, namely the hunker down in cash. As to Soros' alleged bearishness, he can't possibly be anywhere near as gloomy as Icahn, who as we reported last week, kept his net short exposure at a record -149%.
Today's 65-year-olds can expect to spend an average of $130,000 on health care during their retirement, from premiums to co-payments to eyeglasses, according to new estimates.
The average single 65-year-old woman can expect to need $135,000 to spend on health care in retirement, while a man will spend $125,000, according to estimates from Fidelity Investments. (The difference is because the woman is expected to live longer—an additional 22 years, vs. 20 years more for the man.)
Yesterday we reported that in a historic first, an unknown group of hackers, the "Shadow Brokers" had hacked the NSA's cuberattack hacking division, "The Equation Group."
The hack of an NSA malware staging server is not unprecedented, but the publication of the take is. Here's what you need to know:
1) NSA traces and targets malware C2 servers in a practice called Counter Computer Network Exploitation, or CCNE. So do our rivals.
2) NSA is often lurking undetected for years on the C2 and ORBs (proxy hops) of state hackers. This is how we follow their operations.
3) This is how we steal their rivals' hacking tools and reverse-engineer them to create "fingerprints" to help us detect them in the future.
4) Here's where it gets interesting: the NSA is not made of magic. Our rivals do the same thing to us -- and occasionally succeed.
5) Knowing this, NSA's hackers (TAO) are told not to leave their hack tools ("binaries") on the server after an op. But people get lazy.
6) What's new? NSA malware staging servers getting hacked by a rival is not new. A rival publicly demonstrating they have done so is.
7) Why did they do it? No one knows, but I suspect this is more diplomacy than intelligence, related to the escalation around the DNC hack.
8) Circumstantial evidence and conventional wisdom indicates Russian responsibility. Here's why that is significant:
9) This leak is likely a warning that someone can prove US responsibility for any attacks that originated from this malware server.
10) That could have significant foreign policy consequences. Particularly if any of those operations targeted US allies.
11) Particularly if any of those operations targeted elections.
12) Accordingly, this may be an effort to influence the calculus of decision-makers wondering how sharply to respond to the DNC hacks.
Investors yank money from hedge funds after poor performance
By Laurence Fletcher and Gregory Zuckerman
Published: Aug 17, 2016 7:25 a.m. ET
Brevan Howard fund suffers first-half outflow of more than $3 billion
A growing exodus from hedge funds extended to two of the biggest names in the industry Tuesday, Tudor Investment Corp. and Brevan Howard, as disenchanted investors increasingly shun what was once the hottest place to put money.
Hedge funds and actively managed mutual funds have been underperforming since financial markets began their rebound in early 2009. The average hedge fund is up 3% this year through the end of July, according to researcher HFR Inc., less than half the S&P 500’s rise, including dividends.
Funds in the $2.9 trillion hedge-fund sector have now experienced three consecutive quarters of withdrawals for the first time since 2009, according to HFR.
Brevan Howard’s master fund was one of the star performers during the credit crisis, but is now on pace for its third straight calendar year of losses. Investors withdrew more than $3 billion from its flagship fund in the first half of this year, according to letters sent to investors and calculations by The Wall Street Journal based on the fund’s asset levels and performance.
For the year through August, two key Tudor hedge funds were down about 3%, according to investors, well below the overall market. On Tuesday, the firm reduced its workforce by about 15%, or about 60 employees, including money managers as well as other staff, according to people familiar with the matter.
Once again the Philly Fed's headline tells an entirely different story than the details. At plus 2.0, the headline may be a bit flat but that's far better than orders or employment which are in deep contraction.
New orders fell back into negative ground, to minus 7.2 from July's plus 11.8 for the very weakest reading of the year. Backlog orders fell to minus 15.0 from plus 1.9 which is also the weakest reading of the year. At a numbing minus 20.0, employment is down for an 8th month in a row for the weakest showing of the cycle, since July 2009. Inventories are in sharp contraction, the workweek is in sharp contraction, and delivery times are speeding up which is a sign of weakness. The one sign of strength (other than the headline) is shipments, at plus 8.4 in a gain that won't likely be repeated anytime soon given the weakness in orders.
The headline for this report is not a composite but maybe it should be. If it were, it would be deeply negative. Econoday Economic Report: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey*August*18,*2016
Good trading to everyone.
The following user says Thank You to aquarian1 for this post:
I see myself entering the trade relaxed and confident. I enter the limit order and the stops. My estimated price is 2181.50 and the time is 9:03 The price rises from 2176 and then hesitates at 2179. It seems to not have enough energy to get to my price and looks as if it might fail and is now 2177.50. Then just as I am thinking it might not get my order it starts to turn back up, 9:01 2179, 9:02 2180 9:03 it hits 2181.50 to the tick!
As if a miracle it touches 2181.75 and I get my fill. The spinning on a dime it falls, falls, and falls. It is crashing! My profits are soaring! $500, $700, $1000, $2,500 $25,000!! I pull the trigger and close the trade. Perfect!
I was filled at the HOD and I have closed at the LOD.
I walk down the street humming a tune. I am on my way!
I get a call from the brokerage house.
"you are over $10 million, sir. As a preferred customer we can give you a special rate and access to dark pool trading."
-- "I'll think about it",
I laugh and set up a wire transfer of $1M to my bank account.
"Book me a first class tour of Europe." I say to my travel agent.
"Just book the best! and courier me the brochures!"
I hang up the phone let a a holler, laugh and jump for joy!
Good trading to everyone.
Last edited by aquarian1; August 21st, 2016 at 05:08 PM.