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Started:January 30th, 2011 (12:29 PM) by aquarian1 Views / Replies:40,191 / 682
Last Reply:November 25th, 2016 (11:28 AM) Attachments:357

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Trading

Old March 11th, 2011, 10:59 AM   #51 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 967 received

Traget buy set at 1292.5

Enter the target buy to close the trade at 1292.50
Feeling tired.
I'll set an alert for 1293 and see if indicators can squeeze more out of this.

o/n low ran low stops so there is no need for the crooks to move it lower.
little interest on bears to sell - and little enthusiam on bull to buy.
probably cabbage for first while at least .
estimated high shows a run up at some point (perhaps near the close?)

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Old March 11th, 2011, 11:04 AM   #52 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 967 received

oooh one tick from target

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Old March 11th, 2011, 11:08 AM   #53 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 967 received

reduced target to 1290


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Old March 11th, 2011, 11:13 AM   #54 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 967 received

back up to 1291.75

taking a break -- too much work

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Old March 11th, 2011, 11:29 AM   #55 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 967 received

Stay with the plan

Futures Edge on FIO
fiddling around with the target price was a bad idea.

I should work more on not rushing the entry

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Last edited by aquarian1; March 11th, 2011 at 10:33 PM.
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Old March 11th, 2011, 01:24 PM   #56 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
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Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 967 received

BB abd SA evaporate after 10am

The BB and SA levels are only to help catch the FE if the FE is not as low as the LZ or as high as the HZ.

Today was an example (numbers still for March contract til Monday)

Opened at 1291.25
up to 1298@ 8:47 (FEa)
dn to 1291.75 at 9:15 (FEb) (this was the FE=LE)
---today there was a double FE, FEa and FEb that is they are 6pts apart and FEa > SA and FEb < BB and before 10am.--- a bit confusing I know but that's life!

So FEb turns out to be the "real' FE. How do we know this? At the time we don't unless we look to a longer time frame chart or indicators or some other measure. However, We can Sell FEa and Buy FEb (close and reverse so now we are long. ) if the trend lines support this.

This is why the spreadsheet also has FEa and FEb estimates (at this time these aren't reliable on their own but in todays case they provide support to determining what was happening)
From spreadsheet
FEa= 1290.50 08:41
FEb= 1296.50 09:26

--- look at the times 8:41 vs 8:47 actual and 9:26 versus 9:15, then switch the values (easy for me with my mild dyslexia) 1296.50 vs 1298 and 1290.50 vs 1291.75. Add in the "sell near open" signal and you can see we are selling at about 8:41 - turns out its 8:47 and as 1290.50 obviously isn't the value to watch 1296.50 is a guideline. However, I fine-tune the entry of a trade with indicators so that price levels and times that I estimate are only to "get me on the green". Then its pick up the putter (the indicators) to get it in the hole.

So once we get to 8:41 we are looking for a top somewhere in the 1296.50 area, we are 'on the green' and now its up to us to sink the putt.

Then we are long for the SE which is the HE and can sell the HE (close and reverse) if we feel there is 6 pts profit potential downward.

up to 1302 @11:04

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Old March 11th, 2011, 10:32 PM   #57 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 967 received

error inopening price?

I have done my end-of-the-day wrap-up and now have a different value for the opening price than I had right after opening (I take the end of the day numbers from my IB regular trading hour chart which somehow has a different opening price at the end of the day vs 8:35).

In any case, the "Sell at/near open" signal is no longer showing on my spreadsheet with the revised opening number.
I hope this did not cause confusion to any readers.
Perhaps those who said well you could have "bought at open for 5pts+"

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Old March 15th, 2011, 01:28 AM   #58 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 967 received

Beware the ides of March

Caesar:
Who is it in the press that calls on me?
I hear a tongue shriller than all the music
Cry "Caesar!" Speak, Caesar is turn'd to hear.

Soothsayer:
Beware the ides of March.

Caesar:
What man is that?

Brutus:
A soothsayer bids you beware the ides of March.
Julius Caesar Act 1, scene 2, 15–19
Beware the ides of March - Shakespeare Quotes
-----------
Looking like a fall. 1220 is the first target. On 19 Jan we had that a break of 1271 put uptrend in danger of being broken. Having been to 1343 on 18 Feb (1344 on SPX) we have now fallen below 1271. Monday 14 March the June contract shows a close ....

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Old March 15th, 2011, 01:45 AM   #59 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 967 received

Super BASS WOOOFER

My neighbor on the other side of my paper-thin apt walls has decided that he needs an extra bass woofer to get the full experience of his rented movies on his home entertainment system. Net result - up til 11pm and a terrible sleep last night -( awful dreams). I didn't finally get up until after the market had closed.

Took a walk - real exception for me and since then I've been working on the daily wrap-up which has taken forever.

My estimates where not close today. I do my roll-over on the weekend after the second Thurs, as my numbers are chain-linked and I'm hoping the -4.75 won't be as bad over the weekend.

It 9:42pm PST and I'm already 2 hours behind bedtime and still some more work to do before then.
Que cera.

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Old March 15th, 2011, 09:27 AM   #60 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 967 received

double low


I put in an overnight sell at 1275.25 but the high was only 1271.25 at 3:29 so no fill.
I have not done the morning adjustment to my estimates so those shown on the charts are from last night.
(The estimate labeled me is just something I do for fun by looking at the graph - that estimate, 1271 would have been perfect! but its a bit of a cheat as I was very late doing my wrap up and the fall (first part) had happened.

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